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Balanced Zone Shift (BZS) Single Season Leaders, 2007-08 to 2010-11

Having talked a bit about Balanced Zone Shift as subtracting Expected Zone Shift from a player's actual Zone Shift and the best BZS's from the previous four years, the request came for a look at leaders within each of the individual seasons.  The idea is to see how repeatable good (and, for that matter, bad) BZS performance is, and should it be repeatable which players are repeating it.  This got me to thinking about the idea of performance being repeatable in general, and there's just a couple of things I want to say.

For one, if a performance is repeated we get an idea of a player's talent.  As you can see below, there are a few players that are repeated in either the best BZS or the worst BZS (repeated bad performances can tell us something, too).  But if the performances are drastically different from one year to the next, one or more of the performances have to be called into question and you need to look for reasons to explain it.  It might be so simple as the player just isn't as good or bad as one of the performances (which you would find by identifying elements of the performance that are "lucky" or evidence of recording bias), or they were used differently by their coaches (includes who they were teamed with and who they were played against).   Secondly, and something I've been thinking about quite a bit: there's a lot to be said for someone that repeats performance, good or bad.  A consistent player is easier for coaches to deploy effectively, and can be matched up with other players to cover or exploit particular parts of their game.  It's also easier to decide whether they should be demoted.  In other words, a consistent player, regardless of whether they are great, average, or pretty bad, makes for easy management and deployment decisions (unless you give them a ridiculous contract, that is).

Just a quick note to tack-on to this: in case anyone is wondering, BZS has zero correlation to Zone Start%.

2007-08 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 525, mean = -0.248)

Top 20 ————————————————————— Bottom 20

Player ————————— BZS —————————– Player ————————- BZS

Antti Miettinen —————– 6.498 ————————— Aaron Downey ————– -12.094

Wojtek Wolski —————– 5.800 ————————— Bryan Berard —————– -7.480

Brandon Dubinsky ———– 5.718 ————————— Eric Godard ——————- -6.833

Jim Dowd ———————– 5.558 ————————– Brad Isbister —————— -6.697

Jerred Smithson ————– 5.280 ————————– Craig MacDonald ———— -6.616

Tomas Holmstrom ———– 5.275 ————————– Craig Adams —————– -6.083

Brenden Morrow ————– 5.180 ————————— Stu Barnes ——————- -5.969

Bryan Smolinski ————– 5.098 ————————— Andreas Karlsson ———- -5.769

Matt Cooke ——————— 5.072 ————————— Steve McCarthy ————– -5.611

Milan Michalek —————– 4.942 ————————– Yanic Perreault ————– -5.548

Paul Martin ———————- 4.898 ————————– Jeremy Reich —————- -5.426

Pavel Datsyuk —————— 4.815 ————————– Jamal Mayers —————- -5.309

Francis Bouillon ————— 4.724 ————————– Kurtis Foster —————— -5.261

Kurt Sauer ———————– 4.556 ————————– Jody Shelley —————— -5.198

Martin Straka ——————– 4.489 ————————– D.J. King ———————– -5.165

Jarkko Ruutu ——————– 4.488 ————————- Trevor Linden —————– -5.078

Denis Grebeshkov ———— 4.449 ————————– Maxim Afinogenov ———– -5.035

Nicklas Lidstrom ————– 4.293 ————————– Nick Tarnasky —————– -5.013

Scott Gomez ——————– 4.183 ————————– Aaron Voros ——————- -5.002

Jonathan Cheechoo ———- 4.146 ————————- Mike Sillinger —————— -4.882

2008-09 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 518, mean = -0.2)

Top 20 ————————————————————— Bottom 20

Player ————————— BZS —————————– Player ————————- BZS

Nick Schultz ——————- 6.862 ————————— Kris Russell —————– -10.779

Mark Giordano —————- 6.777 ————————— Derek Armstrong ———— -8.536

Blair Betts ———————- 6.618 ————————— Derek Boogaard ————- -8.369

Lubomir Visnovsky ———- 6.265 ————————— Raitis Ivanans —————- -7.266

Kurt Sauer ——————— 6.029 —————————- Marc-Andre Bergeron —— -7.208

Milan Michalek —————- 5.990 ————————— Mason Raymond ———— -7.186

Douglas Murray ————– 5.976 —————————- Fabian Brunnstrom ——— -7.059

Dean McAmmond ———– 5.425 —————————- Eric Godard ——————- -6.532

Ryane Clowe —————– 5.032 —————————- Brad Richards —————- -6.067

Alexander Semin ————- 4.840 ————————— Kyle Turris ——————— -5.295

Jay McKee ———————- 4.635 ————————— Brandon Sutter ————— -5.011

Patrick Marleau ————— 4.566 —————————- Erik Christensen ———— -4.933

Shawn Horcoff —————- 4.528 —————————- Marek Svatos —————– -4.692

Joe Pavelski ——————- 4.361 —————————- Christian Backman ——— -4.673

Andrew Ladd —————— 4.278 —————————- Thomas Pock —————– -4.665

Marc Staal ———————- 4.152 —————————- Jordan Leopold ————– -4.593

Marian Hossa —————– 4.019 —————————- Cody McCormick ———— -4.584

Niklas Kronwall ————— 3.999 —————————- Brian Sutherby ————— -4.403

Dan Boyle ———————– 3.917 —————————- Boris Valabik —————- -4.399

Joe Thornton ——————- 3.908 —————————- Tyler Arnason —————- -4.362

2009-10 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 527, mean = -0.0)

Top 20 ————————————————————— Bottom 20

Player ————————— BZS —————————– Player ————————- BZS

Robert Lang ——————- 6.167 ————————— Raitis Ivanans ————– -7.213

Adam Pardy ——————- 5.884 ————————— George Parros ————– -6.762

Marcel Goc ——————– 5.588 —————————- Mike Brown —————— -6.203

Colin Fraser ——————- 5.359 ————————— Mike Rupp ——————- -6.056

Chris Kunitz ——————- 5.177 —————————- Derick Brassard ———– -5.673

Mike Weaver —————— 5.005 —————————- Jared Boll ——————– -5.585

Alexander Ovechkin ——— 5.002 ————————— Ethan Moreau ————— -5.551

Marian Hossa —————- 4.775 —————————- Marc-Andre Bergeron —– -5.473

Sidney Crosby —————- 4.771 ————————— Dominic Moore ————– -5.378

Daniel Sedin —————— 4.366 ————————— James Sheppard ———– -5.098

Johnny Boychuk ————– 3.947 ————————— Jerred Smithson ———— -4.949

Alexander Steen ————– 3.752 ————————— Patrick Eaves —————- -4.856

Nick Foligno ——————- 3.751 ————————— Ryan O’Byrne —————- -4.842

Matt Cooke ——————— 3.696 ————————— Shane Hnidy —————– -4.767

Patrick Marleau ————— 3.610 ————————— Kyle Chipchura ————– -4.662

Byron Bitz ———————– 3.605 ————————— Lukas Krajicek ————– -4.651

Olli Jokinen ——————– 3.564 ————————— Richard Park —————– -4.634

Patrik Elias ——————– 3.548 —————————- Daniel Briere —————- -4.548

Tanner Glass —————– 3.507 —————————- David Legwand ———— -4.492

Zach Parise ——————- 3.493 —————————- Derek Boogaard ———— -4.314

2010-11 BZS Leaders, 30+ Games Played (n = 518, mean = -0.1)

Top 20 ————————————————————— Bottom 20

Player ————————— BZS —————————– Player ————————- BZS

Jay Harrison ——————- 6.794 ————————— Jason Blake —————- -7.508

Scott Nichol ——————– 6.196 ————————— Colton Orr ——————- -7.435

Manny Malhotra ————— 6.006 ————————— John Scott ——————- -7.182

Claude Giroux —————– 5.844 ————————— Zack Stortini —————- -7.029

Nick Spaling ——————- 5.568 ————————— Matt Hendricks ————- -6.811

Adam Foote ——————– 5.519 ————————— Matt Martin ——————- -6.495

Sidney Crosby —————– 5.213 ————————— Andreas Lilja ————— -6.438

Jeff Carter ———————– 5.044 ————————— Brian Sutherby ————- -5.921

Paul Stastny ——————– 5.028 ————————— Jody Shelley —————- -5.773

David Krejci ——————— 4.999 ————————— Fredrik Modin ————– -5.568

Ryan Shannon —————– 4.517 ————————— Trevor Lewis ————— -5.554

Ryane Clowe ——————- 4.289 ————————— Arron Asham ————— -5.100

David Backes —————— 4.263 ————————— Drew Miller —————— -5.068

Chris Conner ——————- 4.209 ————————– David Moss —————— -5.031

Patrik Berglund —————- 4.185 ————————— Kyle Wilson —————– -5.029

James Van Riemsdyk ——– 4.079 ————————– Davis Drewiske ———— -5.019

Nathan Horton —————— 4.021 ————————– Maxime Talbot ————– -4.987

Ales Hemsky ——————– 3.997 ————————– Phil Kessel —————— -4.912

Joe Pavelski ——————— 3.905 ————————– Vincent Lecavalier ——— -4.899

Cody McCormick ————— 3.889 ————————– Colin Fraser —————– -4.693

Notice how at least 3 players (Jerred Smithson, Cody McCormick, Colin Fraser) show up on the good and bad side of these lists.  It would be wrong to assume that any of those players are truly as bad as they were one season just as it would be wrong to assume they were as good as they played in another.

That's enough for now.  Next time I'll be looking at 3- and 4-year averages, and a bit after that I'll see whether or not BZS is affected by age.

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