Having talked a bit about Balanced Zone Shift as subtracting Expected Zone Shift from a player's actual Zone Shift and the best BZS's from the previous four years, the request came for a look at leaders within each of the individual seasons. The idea is to see how repeatable good (and, for that matter, bad) BZS performance is, and should it be repeatable which players are repeating it. This got me to thinking about the idea of performance being repeatable in general, and there's just a couple of things I want to say.
For one, if a performance is repeated we get an idea of a player's talent. As you can see below, there are a few players that are repeated in either the best BZS or the worst BZS (repeated bad performances can tell us something, too). But if the performances are drastically different from one year to the next, one or more of the performances have to be called into question and you need to look for reasons to explain it. It might be so simple as the player just isn't as good or bad as one of the performances (which you would find by identifying elements of the performance that are "lucky" or evidence of recording bias), or they were used differently by their coaches (includes who they were teamed with and who they were played against). Secondly, and something I've been thinking about quite a bit: there's a lot to be said for someone that repeats performance, good or bad. A consistent player is easier for coaches to deploy effectively, and can be matched up with other players to cover or exploit particular parts of their game. It's also easier to decide whether they should be demoted. In other words, a consistent player, regardless of whether they are great, average, or pretty bad, makes for easy management and deployment decisions (unless you give them a ridiculous contract, that is).
Just a quick note to tack-on to this: in case anyone is wondering, BZS has zero correlation to Zone Start%.
2007-08 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 525, mean = -0.248)
Top 20 ————————————————————— Bottom 20
Player ————————— BZS —————————– Player ————————- BZS
Antti Miettinen —————– 6.498 ————————— Aaron Downey ————– -12.094
Wojtek Wolski —————– 5.800 ————————— Bryan Berard —————– -7.480
Brandon Dubinsky ———– 5.718 ————————— Eric Godard ——————- -6.833
Jim Dowd ———————– 5.558 ————————– Brad Isbister —————— -6.697
Jerred Smithson ————– 5.280 ————————– Craig MacDonald ———— -6.616
Tomas Holmstrom ———– 5.275 ————————– Craig Adams —————– -6.083
Brenden Morrow ————– 5.180 ————————— Stu Barnes ——————- -5.969
Bryan Smolinski ————– 5.098 ————————— Andreas Karlsson ———- -5.769
Matt Cooke ——————— 5.072 ————————— Steve McCarthy ————– -5.611
Milan Michalek —————– 4.942 ————————– Yanic Perreault ————– -5.548
Paul Martin ———————- 4.898 ————————– Jeremy Reich —————- -5.426
Pavel Datsyuk —————— 4.815 ————————– Jamal Mayers —————- -5.309
Francis Bouillon ————— 4.724 ————————– Kurtis Foster —————— -5.261
Kurt Sauer ———————– 4.556 ————————– Jody Shelley —————— -5.198
Martin Straka ——————– 4.489 ————————– D.J. King ———————– -5.165
Jarkko Ruutu ——————– 4.488 ————————- Trevor Linden —————– -5.078
Denis Grebeshkov ———— 4.449 ————————– Maxim Afinogenov ———– -5.035
Nicklas Lidstrom ————– 4.293 ————————– Nick Tarnasky —————– -5.013
Scott Gomez ——————– 4.183 ————————– Aaron Voros ——————- -5.002
Jonathan Cheechoo ———- 4.146 ————————- Mike Sillinger —————— -4.882
2008-09 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 518, mean = -0.2)
Top 20 ————————————————————— Bottom 20
Player ————————— BZS —————————– Player ————————- BZS
Nick Schultz ——————- 6.862 ————————— Kris Russell —————– -10.779
Mark Giordano —————- 6.777 ————————— Derek Armstrong ———— -8.536
Blair Betts ———————- 6.618 ————————— Derek Boogaard ————- -8.369
Lubomir Visnovsky ———- 6.265 ————————— Raitis Ivanans —————- -7.266
Kurt Sauer ——————— 6.029 —————————- Marc-Andre Bergeron —— -7.208
Milan Michalek —————- 5.990 ————————— Mason Raymond ———— -7.186
Douglas Murray ————– 5.976 —————————- Fabian Brunnstrom ——— -7.059
Dean McAmmond ———– 5.425 —————————- Eric Godard ——————- -6.532
Ryane Clowe —————– 5.032 —————————- Brad Richards —————- -6.067
Alexander Semin ————- 4.840 ————————— Kyle Turris ——————— -5.295
Jay McKee ———————- 4.635 ————————— Brandon Sutter ————— -5.011
Patrick Marleau ————— 4.566 —————————- Erik Christensen ———— -4.933
Shawn Horcoff —————- 4.528 —————————- Marek Svatos —————– -4.692
Joe Pavelski ——————- 4.361 —————————- Christian Backman ——— -4.673
Andrew Ladd —————— 4.278 —————————- Thomas Pock —————– -4.665
Marc Staal ———————- 4.152 —————————- Jordan Leopold ————– -4.593
Marian Hossa —————– 4.019 —————————- Cody McCormick ———— -4.584
Niklas Kronwall ————— 3.999 —————————- Brian Sutherby ————— -4.403
Dan Boyle ———————– 3.917 —————————- Boris Valabik —————- -4.399
Joe Thornton ——————- 3.908 —————————- Tyler Arnason —————- -4.362
2009-10 BZS Leaders, 50+ Games Played (n = 527, mean = -0.0)
Top 20 ————————————————————— Bottom 20
Player ————————— BZS —————————– Player ————————- BZS
Robert Lang ——————- 6.167 ————————— Raitis Ivanans ————– -7.213
Adam Pardy ——————- 5.884 ————————— George Parros ————– -6.762
Marcel Goc ——————– 5.588 —————————- Mike Brown —————— -6.203
Colin Fraser ——————- 5.359 ————————— Mike Rupp ——————- -6.056
Chris Kunitz ——————- 5.177 —————————- Derick Brassard ———– -5.673
Mike Weaver —————— 5.005 —————————- Jared Boll ——————– -5.585
Alexander Ovechkin ——— 5.002 ————————— Ethan Moreau ————— -5.551
Marian Hossa —————- 4.775 —————————- Marc-Andre Bergeron —– -5.473
Sidney Crosby —————- 4.771 ————————— Dominic Moore ————– -5.378
Daniel Sedin —————— 4.366 ————————— James Sheppard ———– -5.098
Johnny Boychuk ————– 3.947 ————————— Jerred Smithson ———— -4.949
Alexander Steen ————– 3.752 ————————— Patrick Eaves —————- -4.856
Nick Foligno ——————- 3.751 ————————— Ryan O’Byrne —————- -4.842
Matt Cooke ——————— 3.696 ————————— Shane Hnidy —————– -4.767
Patrick Marleau ————— 3.610 ————————— Kyle Chipchura ————– -4.662
Byron Bitz ———————– 3.605 ————————— Lukas Krajicek ————– -4.651
Olli Jokinen ——————– 3.564 ————————— Richard Park —————– -4.634
Patrik Elias ——————– 3.548 —————————- Daniel Briere —————- -4.548
Tanner Glass —————– 3.507 —————————- David Legwand ———— -4.492
Zach Parise ——————- 3.493 —————————- Derek Boogaard ———— -4.314
2010-11 BZS Leaders, 30+ Games Played (n = 518, mean = -0.1)
Top 20 ————————————————————— Bottom 20
Player ————————— BZS —————————– Player ————————- BZS
Jay Harrison ——————- 6.794 ————————— Jason Blake —————- -7.508
Scott Nichol ——————– 6.196 ————————— Colton Orr ——————- -7.435
Manny Malhotra ————— 6.006 ————————— John Scott ——————- -7.182
Claude Giroux —————– 5.844 ————————— Zack Stortini —————- -7.029
Nick Spaling ——————- 5.568 ————————— Matt Hendricks ————- -6.811
Adam Foote ——————– 5.519 ————————— Matt Martin ——————- -6.495
Sidney Crosby —————– 5.213 ————————— Andreas Lilja ————— -6.438
Jeff Carter ———————– 5.044 ————————— Brian Sutherby ————- -5.921
Paul Stastny ——————– 5.028 ————————— Jody Shelley —————- -5.773
David Krejci ——————— 4.999 ————————— Fredrik Modin ————– -5.568
Ryan Shannon —————– 4.517 ————————— Trevor Lewis ————— -5.554
Ryane Clowe ——————- 4.289 ————————— Arron Asham ————— -5.100
David Backes —————— 4.263 ————————— Drew Miller —————— -5.068
Chris Conner ——————- 4.209 ————————– David Moss —————— -5.031
Patrik Berglund —————- 4.185 ————————— Kyle Wilson —————– -5.029
James Van Riemsdyk ——– 4.079 ————————– Davis Drewiske ———— -5.019
Nathan Horton —————— 4.021 ————————– Maxime Talbot ————– -4.987
Ales Hemsky ——————– 3.997 ————————– Phil Kessel —————— -4.912
Joe Pavelski ——————— 3.905 ————————– Vincent Lecavalier ——— -4.899
Cody McCormick ————— 3.889 ————————– Colin Fraser —————– -4.693
Notice how at least 3 players (Jerred Smithson, Cody McCormick, Colin Fraser) show up on the good and bad side of these lists. It would be wrong to assume that any of those players are truly as bad as they were one season just as it would be wrong to assume they were as good as they played in another.
That's enough for now. Next time I'll be looking at 3- and 4-year averages, and a bit after that I'll see whether or not BZS is affected by age.