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WPG Vs. OTT By Expected Points (EP)

WINNIPEG, CANADA - NOVEMBER 29: Blake Wheeler #26 of the Winnipeg Jets skates against the Ottawa Senators at the MTS Centre on November 29, 2011 in Winnipeg, Canada. The Senators defeated the Jets 6-4.
WINNIPEG, CANADA - NOVEMBER 29: Blake Wheeler #26 of the Winnipeg Jets skates against the Ottawa Senators at the MTS Centre on November 29, 2011 in Winnipeg, Canada. The Senators defeated the Jets 6-4.


I decided to take a look at the WPG/OTT game a few days ago by expected points. Expected points is the average standings points an average NHL team would accrue in a given game state. The model uses strength, score, home/away, and time into account. For added analysis I added cumulative "CORSI For" along with CORSI%.

This game featured a lot of goals and a lot of penalties, which made it interesting to look at using expected points. A lot can be gathered from the graphs, clearly you can see later goals are worth more expected points than earlier ones, same thing for penalties. The biggest goal of the game was scored by Smith, which dropped WPG's EP by 0.855 (ie. that goal resulted in a reduction [on average] of 0.855 standings points).