One of the great things about shot differential (when the score is close) is that it stabilizes after a very small number of games. Fenwick ratios don't capture the entirety of a team's ability, but what single statistic does? The perfect is the enemy of the good, and Fenwick is as good as we can get with a simple stat.
The rankings haven't moved much in recent weeks – Detroit has been #1 all year, and Vancouver and Chicago have been near the top like they were last season:
| RANK | LSTYR | TEAM | CLOSE | PDO |
| 1 | 8 | DET | 57.16 | 1014 |
| 2 | 9 | STL | 55.81 | 1001 |
| 3 | 4 | VAN | 55.02 | 985 |
| 4 | 2 | CHI | 54.40 | 991 |
| 5 | 14 | BOS | 53.00 | 1005 |
| 6 | 5 | PIT | 52.67 | 981 |
| 7 | 16 | WSH | 52.04 | 990 |
| 8 | 6 | N.J | 52.01 | 1002 |
| 9 | 18 | PHX | 51.64 | 1009 |
| 10 | 22 | FLA | 51.10 | 986 |
| 11 | 24 | COL | 50.86 | 992 |
| 12 | 1 | S.J | 50.86 | 1017 |
| 13 | 9 | CBJ | 50.72 | 990 |
| 14 | 15 | L.A | 50.50 | 990 |
| 15 | 20 | OTT | 50.07 | 991 |
| 16 | 11 | MTL | 50.04 | 998 |
| 17 | 12 | PHI | 49.84 | 1020 |
| 18 | 21 | WPG | 49.64 | 1014 |
| 19 | 26 | TOR | 48.58 | 1013 |
| 20 | 27 | NYI | 48.39 | 990 |
| 21 | 3 | T.B | 48.37 | 983 |
| 22 | 29 | EDM | 48.27 | 1001 |
| 23 | 13 | BUF | 47.93 | 1025 |
| 24 | 7 | CGY | 47.76 | 1008 |
| 25 | 23 | DAL | 47.41 | 998 |
| 26 | 19 | NYR | 46.91 | 1003 |
| 27 | 25 | CAR | 46.70 | 990 |
| 28 | 17 | NSH | 44.93 | 1007 |
| 29 | 30 | MIN | 43.86 | 1024 |
| 30 | 28 | ANA | 43.63 | 990 |
The biggest regressions are Tampa, San Jose and Calgary, while Colorado and (inexplicably) Florida have made the biggest jumps. Minnesota and Anaheim are comfortably ensconced in last place, but Minnesota’s high PDO, driven by high shooting percentage and even higher save percentage, makes the Wild look like geniuses while the Ducks have assembled a circular firing squad.
In terms of likely movers and shakers in the second-half standings, Minnesota is first in line for a fall, followed by the New York Rangers (who’ve been incredibly lucky on the PP) and the Nashville Predators. Teams trending in the other direction include Washington, Los Angeles and Columbus – though it’s too late to save them.
