clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Does 30 Games of Not Scoring mean anything?

New, comments

I went back through all of the post-lockout seasons and looked at teams that had truly horrible shooting runs over any 30 game stretch - 21 of 180 teams had shooting percentages less than 3.7%. How did they do over the rest of the season? Reasonably well:

30G Other 52 Reg Mean
EV Sh% 3.28 5.45 77%

This shooting percentage includes missed shots - the league-average shooting percentage is 6.1%. Teams that performed miserably in a 30-game stretch actually did ok the rest of the season, though they didn't rebound entirely to the league average. 5.45% is less than one standard deviation below the mean, so watching a team put up awful numbers over a 30-game stretch suggests that they are likely in the bottom 10 in the league in terms of actual finishing talent. Either that or their official scorer is massively overcounting shots on goal.