Jets Comparables IX: Final Scoring

Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.

Over the past couple of months we've used various types of projection systems, including Vukota, Snepsts and AHL translations, to set scoring expectations for the Winnipeg Jets. In our final piece we'll put it all together.

The Winnipeg Snepsts

Here's how Snepsts sets the scoring expectations for this year. In short, here are the average scoring totals expected from each player based on their recent statistics, historical matches, and in some cases their AHL league translations.

Player	GP	G	A	PTS
Andrew Ladd	82	23	25	48
Dustin Byfuglien	82	17	30	47
Bryan Little	79	19	25	44
Tobias Enstrom	82	9	35	44
Evander Kane	75	20	23	43
Blake Wheeler	82	18	23	41
Nik Antropov	76	14	21	35
Eric Fehr	70	13	15	28
Alexander Burmistrov	74	9	19	28
Zach Bogosian	67	9	15	24
Derek Meech	74	5	14	19
Ben Maxwell	49	5	3	18
Kyle Wellwood	55	7	11	18
Jim Slater	49	7	9	16
Ron Hainsey	66	3	13	16
Randy Jones	55	2	12	14
Tim Stapleton	73	7	7	14
Chris Thorburn	82	5	9	14
Johnny Oduya	64	2	10	12
Brett Festerling	53	2	8	10
Tanner Glass	70	2	8	10
Mark Stuart	51	2	5	7

It doesn’t look very good at all – nobody cracking 50 points, only two 20-goal scorers, and just two 30-assist playmakers. The odds of this scenario are highly unlikely, at least someone should jump up and have a break-out season, and take a linemate or two with them. Just 205 total goals here, 18 fewer than last season, and better than just 4 teams last year (Florida, Edmonton, Ottawa and New Jersey). Grim!

The Vukota Version

Here's how it looks using perhaps the best projection system out there, Tom Awad's Vukota, which is typically more optimistic than Snepsts, but generally doesn’t predict surprise break-outs very often.

Player	GP	G	A	PTS
Dustin Byfuglien	82	19	43	62
Andrew Ladd	74	23	28	51
Bryan Little	71	18	28	46
Tobias Enstrom	67	9	34	43
Evander Kane	75	25	28	43
Blake Wheeler	71	17	25	42
Nik Antropov	64	16	26	42
Eric Fehr	58	15	16	31
Alexander Burmistrov	66	10	17	27
Zach Bogosian	67	8	18	26
Kyle Wellwood	55	9	14	23
Ron Hainsey	66	4	15	19
Jim Slater	49	9	10	19
Chris Thorburn	65	8	9	17
Randy Jones	55	3	12	15
Johnny Oduya	64	3	12	15
Tim Stapleton	43	6	5	11
Ben Maxwell	29	4	5	9
Mark Stuart	51	2	6	8
Tanner Glass	59	3	5	8
Brett Festerling	33	1	5	6

At a high-level, Vukota paints a similar picture: two 20-goal scorers and two 30-assist playmakers. Vukota has the advantage of including an estimation of games played, but it also generally results in slightly higher scoring for every player – or significantly higher in the case of Dustin Byfuglien. The total this time is 222 goals, much closer to the league average of 229, and only one short of last year’s total.

Best-Case Jets

Using the high-water mark set by Snepsts and/or Vukota, here's the Buffalo 2006-07/Boston 2008-09/Colorado 2009-10 version of the Winnipeg Jets, where everybody exceeds expectations all at once.

Player	GP	G	A	PTS
Andrew Ladd	82	42	30	72
Dustin Byfuglien	82	19	43	62
Tobias Enstrom	82	9	52	61
Bryan Little	79	14	47	61
Evander Kane	75	38	22	60
Nik Antropov	76	24	31	55
Blake Wheeler	82	15	34	49
Eric Fehr	70	18	21	39
Alexander Burmistrov	66	10	17	27
Zach Bogosian	67	9	15	24
Kyle Wellwood	55	9	14	23
Chris Thorburn	82	0	23	23
Jim Slater	49	9	10	19
Ron Hainsey	66	4	15	19
Derek Meech	74	5	14	19
Ben Maxwell	49	5	3	18
Randy Jones	55	3	12	15
Johnny Oduya	64	3	12	15
Tim Stapleton	73	7	7	14
Brett Festerling	53	2	8	10
Tanner Glass	70	2	8	10
Mark Stuart	51	2	6	8

What a roster - a 40-goal scorer, a 30-goal scorer and two more 20-goal men. Little and Enstrom combined for 99 assists, with four more in the 30s. 250 total goals, which is what the 5^th-best Calgary Flames scored last season – 12 shy of the league-leading Vancouver Canucks. Obviously this scenario isn’t terribly likely, but it’s great to see the high-water scoring potential for the Jets, and at least a handful of players ought to hit these marks.

Next week

Nothing! That's actually it – the end of the series. Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed it.

It's a lot of work, and certainly not easy to put it on the line like that, but we'll be sure to circle back at the end of the year and see how we did.