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Reasonable Expectations: Jarome Iginla 2010-11

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There's no question that Jarome Iginla's production has dropped since he turned 30. And it's not just in the points department - he's taken on somewhat tougher matchups since 2007, and the shots have started flowing towards his own net.

Looking over the performance of his 30 "comps," things don't look good for this season:

GP G A P Shots Age
Iginla 2009-10 82 32 37 69 257 32.2
30 Comps 82 32 39 71 248 32.5
Next Season 75 22 32 54 205
3-2-1 82 36 45 81 281
Vukota 76 29 39 68 -

Iginla's been an ironman for the last three seasons, but any player over age 30 has a huge injury risk. In this case, his 3-2-1 average projection is a vast overestimate of his likely performance. It's really a tough call: the most likely outcome is that Iginla doesn't get hurt and he puts up numbers similar to last season, but there's a high likelihood that he falls apart.