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# Shootout Save Percentage

The final chapter.

I finish my look at save percentages to shootout data.  Once again I calculated logits from the save percentages.  In my other analyses, I removed goalies with logits that were infinity or undefined.  In this analysis, I ran the data two ways.  First, the usual way, removing these goalies.  I  was concerned that removing them would introduce bias given the much smaller samples sizes and smaller number of shots so I ran the data a second time estimating a logit for these goalies.  A save percentage of 1.000 gives a logit of infinity.  I assumed the next shot faced would be a goal, calculated the resulting logit, and then multiplied by 2.  Hence, for a goalie who is 10 for 10, I assigned a logit of LN(10/1)*2 or 4.605.  Similarly, a save percentage of 0.000 gives a logit that is undefined.  I assumed the next shot faced would be a save,  calculated the resulting logit, and then multiplied by 2.  For a goalie who is 0 for 4 (Looking at you, Brian Boucher of 2006), I assigned a logit of LN(1/4)*2 or -2.773.  Fortunately, the two methods gave essentially the same results.  Since I use shots faced as a weighting factor, and all of these goalies had faced only a handful of shots, the difference in the two approaches was minimal.

#### Team Effect

Taken by itself, there is no Team effect.

`> LinearModel.41 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ Team, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)`
`> anova(LinearModel.41)`
`Analysis of Variance Table`
`Response: ASOLogit`
`           Df  Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)`
`Team       29  214.69  7.4030   1.116 0.3164`
`Residuals 283 1877.31  6.6336               `

#### Year Effect

Taken by itself, there is no Year effect.

`> LinearModel.42 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ Year, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)`
`> anova(LinearModel.42)`
`Analysis of Variance Table`
`Response: ASOLogit`
`           Df  Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)`
`Year        1    0.65  0.6539  0.0972 0.7554`
`Residuals 311 2091.34  6.7246                `

#### Goalie Effect

Taken by itself, there is a significant goaltender effect.

`> LinearModel.43 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ LastFirst, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)`
`> anova(LinearModel.43)`
`Analysis of Variance Table`
`Response: ASOLogit`
`           Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value   Pr(>F)   `
`LastFirst 108  989.7  9.1639  1.6959 0.000641 ***`
`Residuals 204 1102.3  5.4034                     `

For the coefficients of  the final model, see the Appendix below.

#### Conclusions

Not surprisingly, shootout save percentage is best predicted by goaltender.  Team and Year do not add resolving power to the model.  The model predicts about 47% of the total variability seen in the data.

#### Appendix

 Coefficients: Estimate Std.Error tvalue Pr(>|t|) LastFirst[T.KolesnikVitaly] 3.20E+000 1.04E+000 3.088 0.002 LastFirst[T.BernierJonathan] 2.89E+000 1.10E+000 2.636 0.009 LastFirst[T.GreissThomas] 2.89E+000 1.10E+000 2.636 0.009 LastFirst[T.HolmqvistJohan] 1.29E+000 6.81E-001 1.891 0.060 LastFirst[T.DenisMarc] 1.09E+000 6.57E-001 1.655 0.099 LastFirst[T.HedbergJohan] 7.82E-001 6.05E-001 1.293 0.197 LastFirst[T.PrusekMartin] 1.25E+000 9.88E-001 1.267 0.207 LastFirst[T.GaronMathieu] 7.64E-001 6.04E-001 1.265 0.207 LastFirst[T.NiemiAntti] 7.68E-001 6.85E-001 1.121 0.263 LastFirst[T.JohnsonBrent] 6.72E-001 6.57E-001 1.022 0.308 LastFirst[T.RinnePekka] 5.08E-001 6.15E-001 0.825 0.410 LastFirst[T.LehtonenKari] 4.83E-001 5.98E-001 0.808 0.420 LastFirst[T.TheodoreJose] 4.64E-001 6.13E-001 0.758 0.450 LastFirst[T.DubielewiczWade] 5.35E-001 7.25E-001 0.738 0.461 LastFirst[T.LundqvistHenrik] 4.16E-001 5.73E-001 0.726 0.469 LastFirst[T.SabourinDany] 4.35E-001 6.48E-001 0.671 0.503 LastFirst[T.JosephCurtis] 4.12E-001 6.53E-001 0.631 0.529 LastFirst[T.ThomasTim] 3.64E-001 5.79E-001 0.629 0.530 LastFirst[T.ClemmensenScott] 3.97E-001 6.62E-001 0.599 0.550 LastFirst[T.DiPietroRick] 3.52E-001 5.90E-001 0.596 0.552 LastFirst[T.BrustBarry] 6.91E-001 1.18E+000 0.588 0.557 LastFirst[T.HalakJaroslav] 3.75E-001 6.62E-001 0.566 0.572 LastFirst[T.FernandezManny] 3.19E-001 6.21E-001 0.513 0.608 LastFirst[T.FleuryMarc-Andre] 3.06E-001 5.99E-001 0.510 0.610 LastFirst[T.HillerJonas] 2.99E-001 6.14E-001 0.486 0.627 LastFirst[T.MillerRyan] 2.50E-001 5.77E-001 0.434 0.665 LastFirst[T.VarlamovSemyon] 2.84E-001 6.81E-001 0.417 0.677 LastFirst[T.DeslauriersJeff] 2.67E-001 6.60E-001 0.405 0.686 LastFirst[T.BrodeurMartin] 2.29E-001 5.74E-001 0.399 0.690 LastFirst[T.LaBarberaJason] 2.45E-001 6.55E-001 0.374 0.709 LastFirst[T.HardingJosh] 2.47E-001 6.85E-001 0.361 0.719 LastFirst[T.LuongoRoberto] 2.02E-001 5.79E-001 0.349 0.728 LastFirst[T.PriceCarey] 2.03E-001 6.11E-001 0.332 0.740 LastFirst[T.TellqvistMikael] 2.39E-001 7.47E-001 0.320 0.749 LastFirst[T.DubnykDevan] 2.84E-001 8.90E-001 0.319 0.750 LastFirst[T.NiittymakiAntero] 1.91E-001 6.00E-001 0.318 0.751 LastFirst[T.LegaceManny] 1.89E-001 6.01E-001 0.315 0.753 LastFirst[T.SchaeferNolan] 4.04E-001 1.29E+000 0.314 0.754 LastFirst[T.RolosonDwayne] 1.84E-001 5.87E-001 0.313 0.754 LastFirst[T.MasonChris] 1.73E-001 6.04E-001 0.286 0.775 LastFirst[T.TurcoMarty] 1.60E-001 5.73E-001 0.280 0.780 LastFirst[T.ValiquetteSteve] 1.92E-001 7.07E-001 0.272 0.786 LastFirst[T.GerberMartin] 1.29E-001 6.26E-001 0.206 0.837 LastFirst[T.RaskTuukka] 1.38E-001 6.81E-001 0.203 0.840 LastFirst[T.BacashihuaJason] 1.62E-001 9.17E-001 0.176 0.860 LastFirst[T.HowardJimmy] 8.20E-002 6.33E-001 0.130 0.897 LastFirst[T.QuickJonathan] 4.74E-002 6.19E-001 0.077 0.939 LastFirst[T.ThibaultJocelyn] 3.22E-002 7.07E-001 0.045 0.964 LastFirst[T.LeneveuDavid] 5.97E-016 1.45E+000 0.000 1.000 LastFirst[T.EllisDan] -2.25E-003 6.60E-001 -0.003 0.997 LastFirst[T.ToivonenHannu] -3.06E-002 7.55E-001 -0.040 0.968 LastFirst[T.BryzgalovIlya] -3.85E-002 5.98E-001 -0.064 0.949 LastFirst[T.AubinJean-Sebastien] -5.53E-002 7.55E-001 -0.073 0.942 LastFirst[T.VokounTomas] -6.23E-002 5.81E-001 -0.107 0.915 LastFirst[T.GiguereJean-Sebastien] -6.50E-002 5.90E-001 -0.110 0.912 LastFirst[T.ElliottBrian] -7.96E-002 6.68E-001 -0.119 0.905 LastFirst[T.MasonSteve] -8.90E-002 6.26E-001 -0.142 0.887 LastFirst[T.LeclairePascal] -9.15E-002 6.15E-001 -0.149 0.882 LastFirst[T.KhabibulinNikolai] -1.44E-001 5.96E-001 -0.242 0.809 LastFirst[T.JohnsonChad] -2.90E-001 1.18E+000 -0.247 0.805 LastFirst[T.KolzigOlie] -1.48E-001 5.98E-001 -0.247 0.805 LastFirst[T.NabokovEvgeni] -1.50E-001 5.81E-001 -0.259 0.796 LastFirst[T.RaycroftAndrew] -1.63E-001 6.25E-001 -0.261 0.795 LastFirst[T.ErsbergErik] -1.76E-001 6.48E-001 -0.271 0.787 LastFirst[T.NorrenaFredrik] -2.15E-001 6.78E-001 -0.317 0.752 LastFirst[T.HasekDominik] -2.10E-001 6.50E-001 -0.322 0.748 LastFirst[T.GrahameJohn] -2.42E-001 7.19E-001 -0.337 0.737 LastFirst[T.BelfourEd] -2.24E-001 6.62E-001 -0.338 0.736 LastFirst[T.OsgoodChris] -2.17E-001 6.17E-001 -0.352 0.725 LastFirst[T.MacDonaldJoey] -2.90E-001 8.13E-001 -0.357 0.722 LastFirst[T.CloutierDan] -4.24E-001 1.10E+000 -0.387 0.699 LastFirst[T.GustavssonJonas] -4.09E-001 1.04E+000 -0.395 0.693 LastFirst[T.ShieldsSteve] -6.95E-001 1.73E+000 -0.401 0.689 LastFirst[T.LalimePatrick] -2.64E-001 6.48E-001 -0.407 0.684 LastFirst[T.WeekesKevin] -3.21E-001 7.39E-001 -0.434 0.665 LastFirst[T.HuetCristobal] -2.69E-001 6.12E-001 -0.439 0.661 LastFirst[T.AndersonCraig] -2.72E-001 6.13E-001 -0.443 0.658 LastFirst[T.AuldAlex] -2.88E-001 6.31E-001 -0.457 0.648 LastFirst[T.BackstromNiklas] -3.11E-001 5.90E-001 -0.528 0.598 LastFirst[T.BishopBen] -6.95E-001 1.29E+000 -0.541 0.589 LastFirst[T.McLennanJamie] -6.95E-001 1.29E+000 -0.541 0.589 LastFirst[T.MunroAdam] -6.95E-001 1.29E+000 -0.541 0.589 LastFirst[T.RamoKarri] -4.74E-001 8.13E-001 -0.584 0.560 LastFirst[T.BudajPeter] -3.69E-001 6.00E-001 -0.615 0.540 LastFirst[T.BoucherBrian] -5.28E-001 8.46E-001 -0.624 0.533 LastFirst[T.EmeryRay] -4.37E-001 6.62E-001 -0.660 0.510 LastFirst[T.WardCam] -4.14E-001 6.25E-001 -0.663 0.508 LastFirst[T.ConklinTy] -4.52E-001 6.60E-001 -0.685 0.494 LastFirst[T.GarnettMichael] -6.95E-001 9.88E-001 -0.704 0.482 LastFirst[T.KiprusoffMiikka] -4.43E-001 5.97E-001 -0.743 0.458 LastFirst[T.SmithMike] -4.96E-001 6.50E-001 -0.763 0.446 LastFirst[T.BironMartin] -5.09E-001 6.29E-001 -0.809 0.419 LastFirst[T.DunhamMike] -7.21E-001 8.66E-001 -0.832 0.406 LastFirst[T.BurkeSean] -6.33E-001 6.81E-001 -0.930 0.354 LastFirst[T.LeightonMichael] -1.10E+000 1.18E+000 -0.936 0.350 LastFirst[T.ClimieMatt] -1.39E+000 1.45E+000 -0.959 0.339 LastFirst[T.CrawfordCorey] -1.39E+000 1.45E+000 -0.959 0.339 LastFirst[T.DivisReinhard] -1.39E+000 1.45E+000 -0.959 0.339 LastFirst[T.ToskalaVesa] -6.02E-001 6.26E-001 -0.962 0.337 LastFirst[T.PavelecOndrej] -8.80E-001 8.90E-001 -0.989 0.324 LastFirst[T.SanfordCurtis] -6.81E-001 6.74E-001 -1.010 0.314 LastFirst[T.MarkkanenJussi] -8.05E-001 7.65E-001 -1.053 0.294 LastFirst[T.EscheRobert] -9.72E-001 9.17E-001 -1.060 0.290 LastFirst[T.CaronSebastien] -1.10E+000 9.17E-001 -1.200 0.232 LastFirst[T.PoggeJustin] -2.08E+000 1.73E+000 -1.201 0.231 LastFirst[T.CassiviFrederic] -1.39E+000 1.10E+000 -1.268 0.206 LastFirst[T.DanisYann] -1.77E+000 9.88E-001 -1.794 0.074 LastFirst[T.SchneiderCory] -2.89E+000 1.45E+000 -1.995 0.047