I expanded my look at save percentages to power play data. Once again I calculated logits from the save percentages. I removed goalies with logits that were infinity or undefined. Power play save percentage looks a lot like the even strength data. Goalies differ, teams don't. Only here, some goalies are better than average.
Power Play versus Even Strength
There is a small correlation between even strength save percentage and power play save percentage. Power play save percentage is converted to "PPLogit" and even strength save percentage is converted to "RawLogit".
>LinearModel.1 <- lm(PPLogit ~ RawLogit, data=PPData, weights=PPSA)
>anova(LinearModel.1)Analysis of Variance Table
Response:PPLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
RawLogit 1 70.9 70.922 6.0878 0.01386 *
Residuals 676 7875.3 11.650
While the effect is statistically significant, the effect is of little practical significance.
Year Effect
Unlike even strength, there does not seem to be a year effect.
>LinearModel.3 <- lm(PPLogit ~ Year, data=PPData, weights=PPSA)
>anova(LinearModel.3)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: PPLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Year 1 1.9 1.8913 0.1609 0.6884
Residuals 676 7944.4 11.7520
Team Effect
Taken by itself, there is no team effect.
>LinearModel.4 <- lm(PPLogit ~ Team, data=PPData, weights=PPSA)
>anova(LinearModel.4)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: PPLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Team 29 428.6 14.779 1.2739 0.1548
Residuals 648 7517.6 11.601
Goalie Effect
Taken by itself, there is a significant goalie effect.
>LinearModel.2 <- lm(PPLogit ~ lastfirst, data=PPData, weights=PPSA)
>anova(LinearModel.2)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: PPLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
lastfirst 180 2641.1 14.673 1.3746 0.003857 **
Residuals 497 5305.1 10.674
Multiple Effects
Looking at Team, Year, and Goalie.
>LinearModel.5 <- lm(PPLogit ~ lastfirst+Team+Year, data=PPData, weights=PPSA)
>anova(LinearModel.5)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: PPLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
lastfirst 180 2641.1 14.6728 1.3640 0.005051 **
Team 29 275.7 9.5067 0.8837 0.643386
Year 1 5.7 5.7223 0.5319 0.466157
Residuals 467 5023.7 10.7574
Since Team and Year don't seem to add anything, let's take them out and compare the resulting model.
>LinearModel.6 <- lm(PPLogit ~ lastfirst, data=PPData, weights=PPSA)
>anova(LinearModel.6)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: PPLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
lastfirst 180 2641.1 14.673 1.3746 0.003857 **
Residuals 497 5305.1 10.674
>anova(LinearModel.5, LinearModel.6)
Analysis of Variance Table
Model 1: PPLogit ~ lastfirst + Team + Year
Model 2: PPLogit ~ lastfirst
Res.Df RSS Df Sum of Sq F Pr(>F)
1 467 5023.7
2 497 5305.1 -30 -281.42 0.872 0.6644
Comparing the two models shows we have not lost anything. For the coefficients of the final model, see the Appendix below.
Conclusions
Power play save percentage is best predicted by goaltender. Team and Year do not add resolving power to the model. The model predicts about 35% of the total variability seen in the data.
Appendix
|
Coefficients: |
Estimate |
Std.Error |
tvalue |
Pr(>|t|) |
|
(Intercept) |
2.167 |
0.282 |
7.676 |
0.000 |
|
lastfirst[T.HuetCristobal] |
1.108 |
0.365 |
3.035 |
0.003 |
|
lastfirst[T.HowardJimmy] |
1.519 |
0.527 |
2.884 |
0.004 |
|
lastfirst[T.RaskTuukka] |
1.498 |
0.589 |
2.544 |
0.011 |
|
lastfirst[T.DafoeByron] |
0.845 |
0.340 |
2.488 |
0.013 |
|
lastfirst[T.ThibaultJocelyn] |
0.800 |
0.328 |
2.440 |
0.015 |
|
lastfirst[T.LeclairePascal] |
0.929 |
0.388 |
2.393 |
0.017 |
|
lastfirst[T.ElliottBrian] |
1.007 |
0.473 |
2.127 |
0.034 |
|
lastfirst[T.KiddTrevor] |
0.738 |
0.350 |
2.112 |
0.035 |
|
lastfirst[T.BudajPeter] |
0.777 |
0.380 |
2.046 |
0.041 |
|
lastfirst[T.VernonMichael] |
0.755 |
0.385 |
1.963 |
0.050 |
|
lastfirst[T.TheodoreJose] |
0.605 |
0.326 |
1.857 |
0.064 |
|
lastfirst[T.GiguereJean-Sebastien] |
0.595 |
0.321 |
1.854 |
0.064 |
|
lastfirst[T.KhabibulinNikolai] |
0.538 |
0.313 |
1.718 |
0.086 |
|
lastfirst[T.VokounTomas] |
0.509 |
0.314 |
1.624 |
0.105 |
|
lastfirst[T.ShieldsSteve] |
0.576 |
0.357 |
1.615 |
0.107 |
|
lastfirst[T.NoronenMika] |
0.944 |
0.607 |
1.556 |
0.120 |
|
lastfirst[T.MarkkanenJussi] |
0.786 |
0.514 |
1.531 |
0.126 |
|
lastfirst[T.NorrenaFredrik] |
0.721 |
0.473 |
1.524 |
0.128 |
|
lastfirst[T.DanisYann] |
0.866 |
0.607 |
1.427 |
0.154 |
|
lastfirst[T.BryzgalovIlya] |
0.513 |
0.372 |
1.377 |
0.169 |
|
lastfirst[T.MillerRyan] |
0.424 |
0.324 |
1.308 |
0.192 |
|
lastfirst[T.HasekDominik] |
0.394 |
0.317 |
1.244 |
0.214 |
|
lastfirst[T.CloutierDan] |
0.401 |
0.343 |
1.169 |
0.243 |
|
lastfirst[T.SmithMike] |
0.479 |
0.415 |
1.154 |
0.249 |
|
lastfirst[T.JosephCurtis] |
0.360 |
0.315 |
1.142 |
0.254 |
|
lastfirst[T.BurkeSean] |
0.390 |
0.345 |
1.129 |
0.260 |
|
lastfirst[T.KiprusoffMiikka] |
0.362 |
0.323 |
1.122 |
0.263 |
|
lastfirst[T.LehtonenKari] |
0.384 |
0.344 |
1.115 |
0.265 |
|
lastfirst[T.HnilickaMilan] |
0.472 |
0.425 |
1.112 |
0.267 |
|
lastfirst[T.GerberMartin] |
0.394 |
0.356 |
1.107 |
0.269 |
|
lastfirst[T.HealyGlenn] |
0.598 |
0.541 |
1.104 |
0.270 |
|
lastfirst[T.LalimePatrick] |
0.364 |
0.330 |
1.100 |
0.272 |
|
lastfirst[T.PriceCarey] |
0.444 |
0.405 |
1.096 |
0.274 |
|
lastfirst[T.IrbeArturs] |
0.356 |
0.326 |
1.090 |
0.276 |
|
lastfirst[T.CechmanekRoman] |
0.409 |
0.376 |
1.088 |
0.277 |
|
lastfirst[T.NiemiAntti] |
0.830 |
0.767 |
1.082 |
0.280 |
|
lastfirst[T.WaiteJimmy] |
0.830 |
0.767 |
1.082 |
0.280 |
|
lastfirst[T.GrahameJohn] |
0.410 |
0.387 |
1.062 |
0.289 |
|
lastfirst[T.SaloTommy] |
0.351 |
0.331 |
1.060 |
0.290 |
|
lastfirst[T.BelfourEd] |
0.330 |
0.314 |
1.052 |
0.293 |
|
lastfirst[T.RolosonDwayne] |
0.337 |
0.328 |
1.026 |
0.305 |
|
lastfirst[T.RanfordBill] |
0.634 |
0.627 |
1.011 |
0.313 |
|
lastfirst[T.ToivonenHannu] |
0.427 |
0.471 |
0.906 |
0.366 |
|
lastfirst[T.KolzigOlie] |
0.282 |
0.316 |
0.894 |
0.372 |
|
lastfirst[T.TurcoMarty] |
0.281 |
0.321 |
0.878 |
0.381 |
|
lastfirst[T.DipietroRick] |
0.303 |
0.346 |
0.875 |
0.382 |
|
lastfirst[T.BacashihuaJason] |
0.542 |
0.643 |
0.842 |
0.400 |
|
lastfirst[T.TurekRoman] |
0.299 |
0.356 |
0.839 |
0.402 |
|
lastfirst[T.HackettJeff] |
0.324 |
0.406 |
0.798 |
0.425 |
|
lastfirst[T.NabokovEvgeni] |
0.248 |
0.312 |
0.795 |
0.427 |
|
lastfirst[T.BrathwaiteFred] |
0.261 |
0.352 |
0.742 |
0.458 |
|
lastfirst[T.ToskalaVesa] |
0.258 |
0.349 |
0.738 |
0.461 |
|
lastfirst[T.DenisMarc] |
0.239 |
0.325 |
0.735 |
0.462 |
|
lastfirst[T.BironMartin] |
0.231 |
0.326 |
0.710 |
0.478 |
|
lastfirst[T.LegaceManny] |
0.230 |
0.333 |
0.692 |
0.489 |
|
lastfirst[T.NiittymakiAntero] |
0.252 |
0.367 |
0.689 |
0.491 |
|
lastfirst[T.HedbergJohan] |
0.234 |
0.345 |
0.677 |
0.499 |
|
lastfirst[T.RamoKarri] |
0.416 |
0.620 |
0.671 |
0.502 |
|
lastfirst[T.FitzpatrickMark] |
0.484 |
0.737 |
0.656 |
0.512 |
|
lastfirst[T.MasonChris] |
0.238 |
0.366 |
0.651 |
0.515 |
|
lastfirst[T.ThomasTim] |
0.218 |
0.341 |
0.640 |
0.522 |
|
lastfirst[T.RoyPatrick] |
0.206 |
0.325 |
0.633 |
0.527 |
|
lastfirst[T.VarlamovSemyon] |
0.542 |
0.864 |
0.627 |
0.531 |
|
lastfirst[T.NurminenPasi] |
0.231 |
0.381 |
0.606 |
0.545 |
|
lastfirst[T.HebertGuy] |
0.212 |
0.369 |
0.574 |
0.566 |
|
lastfirst[T.LaBarberaJason] |
0.236 |
0.433 |
0.545 |
0.586 |
|
lastfirst[T.OsgoodChris] |
0.172 |
0.319 |
0.540 |
0.589 |
|
lastfirst[T.SabourinDany] |
0.473 |
0.890 |
0.531 |
0.596 |
|
lastfirst[T.BrodeurMartin] |
0.163 |
0.310 |
0.528 |
0.598 |
|
lastfirst[T.AubinJean-Sebastien] |
0.189 |
0.370 |
0.510 |
0.610 |
|
lastfirst[T.WardCam] |
0.171 |
0.336 |
0.509 |
0.611 |
|
lastfirst[T.FernandezManny] |
0.173 |
0.340 |
0.508 |
0.612 |
|
lastfirst[T.LuongoRoberto] |
0.157 |
0.310 |
0.506 |
0.613 |
|
lastfirst[T.RichterMike] |
0.165 |
0.336 |
0.492 |
0.623 |
|
lastfirst[T.PuppaDaren] |
0.245 |
0.550 |
0.446 |
0.656 |
|
lastfirst[T.QuickJonathan] |
0.181 |
0.462 |
0.393 |
0.694 |
|
lastfirst[T.EscheRobert] |
0.164 |
0.433 |
0.380 |
0.704 |
|
lastfirst[T.ConklinTy] |
0.158 |
0.425 |
0.373 |
0.710 |
|
lastfirst[T.McLeanKirk] |
0.187 |
0.517 |
0.361 |
0.718 |
|
lastfirst[T.GaronMathieu] |
0.125 |
0.363 |
0.345 |
0.730 |
|
lastfirst[T.VanbiesbrouckJohn] |
0.124 |
0.364 |
0.340 |
0.734 |
|
lastfirst[T.SanfordCurtis] |
0.150 |
0.450 |
0.334 |
0.738 |
|
lastfirst[T.TugnuttRon] |
0.115 |
0.364 |
0.315 |
0.753 |
|
lastfirst[T.RhodesDamian] |
0.109 |
0.363 |
0.299 |
0.765 |
|
lastfirst[T.LeightonMichael] |
0.137 |
0.475 |
0.289 |
0.773 |
|
lastfirst[T.BarrassoTom] |
0.113 |
0.403 |
0.279 |
0.780 |
|
lastfirst[T.PavelecOndrej] |
0.169 |
0.627 |
0.269 |
0.788 |
|
lastfirst[T.FleuryMarc-Andre] |
0.085 |
0.327 |
0.259 |
0.795 |
|
lastfirst[T.SnowGarth] |
0.093 |
0.362 |
0.256 |
0.798 |
|
lastfirst[T.FuhrGrant] |
0.099 |
0.438 |
0.227 |
0.821 |
|
lastfirst[T.DunhamMike] |
0.068 |
0.333 |
0.203 |
0.839 |
|
lastfirst[T.AuldAlex] |
0.067 |
0.400 |
0.168 |
0.867 |
|
lastfirst[T.ShtalenkovMikhail] |
0.075 |
0.534 |
0.140 |
0.889 |
|
lastfirst[T.HrudeyKelly] |
0.085 |
0.767 |
0.110 |
0.912 |
|
lastfirst[T.EllisDan] |
0.048 |
0.462 |
0.104 |
0.917 |
|
lastfirst[T.AndersonCraig] |
0.041 |
0.402 |
0.102 |
0.919 |
|
lastfirst[T.EssensaBob] |
0.039 |
0.385 |
0.101 |
0.920 |
|
lastfirst[T.BoucherBrian] |
0.035 |
0.355 |
0.097 |
0.922 |
|
lastfirst[T.DeslauriersJeff] |
0.047 |
0.594 |
0.079 |
0.937 |
|
lastfirst[T.ErsbergErik] |
0.041 |
0.660 |
0.063 |
0.950 |
|
lastfirst[T.MacDonaldJoey] |
0.031 |
0.589 |
0.052 |
0.959 |
|
lastfirst[T.WeekesKevin] |
0.017 |
0.342 |
0.049 |
0.961 |
|
lastfirst[T.BerkhoelAdam] |
0.031 |
1.071 |
0.028 |
0.977 |
|
lastfirst[T.ChiodoAndy] |
0.031 |
1.071 |
0.028 |
0.977 |
|
lastfirst[T.FisetStephane] |
0.011 |
0.385 |
0.028 |
0.977 |
|
lastfirst[T.HirschCorey] |
0.031 |
1.071 |
0.028 |
0.977 |
|
lastfirst[T.McElhinneyCurtis] |
0.031 |
1.071 |
0.028 |
0.977 |
|
lastfirst[T.ClemmensenScott] |
0.003 |
0.523 |
0.005 |
0.996 |
|
lastfirst[T.MasonSteve] |
-0.004 |
0.450 |
-0.010 |
0.992 |
|
lastfirst[T.HardingJosh] |
-0.015 |
0.475 |
-0.031 |
0.975 |
|
lastfirst[T.LeneveuDavid] |
-0.056 |
0.607 |
-0.093 |
0.926 |
|
lastfirst[T.LundqvistHenrik] |
-0.033 |
0.337 |
-0.096 |
0.923 |
|
lastfirst[T.GarnettMichael] |
-0.088 |
0.820 |
-0.107 |
0.915 |
|
lastfirst[T.TerreriChris] |
-0.073 |
0.660 |
-0.111 |
0.911 |
|
lastfirst[T.HurmeJani] |
-0.062 |
0.558 |
-0.112 |
0.911 |
|
lastfirst[T.OuelletMaxime] |
-0.110 |
0.890 |
-0.123 |
0.902 |
|
lastfirst[T.StorrJamie] |
-0.060 |
0.373 |
-0.160 |
0.873 |
|
lastfirst[T.LangkowScott] |
-0.221 |
1.189 |
-0.185 |
0.853 |
|
lastfirst[T.PetersJustin] |
-0.221 |
1.189 |
-0.185 |
0.853 |
|
lastfirst[T.ReeseJeff] |
-0.221 |
1.189 |
-0.185 |
0.853 |
|
lastfirst[T.FankhouserScott] |
-0.168 |
0.712 |
-0.236 |
0.814 |
|
lastfirst[T.MoogAndy] |
-0.152 |
0.627 |
-0.241 |
0.809 |
|
lastfirst[T.RaycroftAndrew] |
-0.097 |
0.344 |
-0.283 |
0.777 |
|
lastfirst[T.JohnsonBrent] |
-0.106 |
0.372 |
-0.284 |
0.777 |
|
lastfirst[T.CousineauMarcel] |
-0.375 |
1.267 |
-0.296 |
0.768 |
|
lastfirst[T.PotvinFelix] |
-0.118 |
0.383 |
-0.308 |
0.758 |
|
lastfirst[T.CharpentierSebastien] |
-0.295 |
0.890 |
-0.331 |
0.741 |
|
lastfirst[T.RousselDominic] |
-0.295 |
0.890 |
-0.331 |
0.741 |
|
lastfirst[T.BackstromNiklas] |
-0.145 |
0.372 |
-0.389 |
0.698 |
|
lastfirst[T.PassmoreSteve] |
-0.206 |
0.527 |
-0.391 |
0.696 |
|
lastfirst[T.FichaudEric] |
-0.260 |
0.660 |
-0.394 |
0.694 |
|
lastfirst[T.RinnePekka] |
-0.183 |
0.458 |
-0.399 |
0.690 |
|
lastfirst[T.BrochuMartin] |
-0.558 |
1.363 |
-0.409 |
0.683 |
|
lastfirst[T.SkudraPeter] |
-0.170 |
0.413 |
-0.411 |
0.681 |
|
lastfirst[T.HextallRon] |
-0.207 |
0.502 |
-0.413 |
0.680 |
|
lastfirst[T.TellqvistMikael] |
-0.201 |
0.473 |
-0.425 |
0.671 |
|
lastfirst[T.EmeryRay] |
-0.196 |
0.378 |
-0.519 |
0.604 |
|
lastfirst[T.GarnerTyrone] |
-0.781 |
1.488 |
-0.524 |
0.600 |
|
lastfirst[T.SalakAlexander] |
-0.781 |
1.488 |
-0.524 |
0.600 |
|
lastfirst[T.WhitmoreKay] |
-0.781 |
1.488 |
-0.524 |
0.600 |
|
lastfirst[T.HodsonKevin] |
-0.432 |
0.783 |
-0.551 |
0.582 |
|
lastfirst[T.McKennaMike] |
-0.432 |
0.783 |
-0.551 |
0.582 |
|
lastfirst[T.HillerJonas] |
-0.249 |
0.441 |
-0.564 |
0.573 |
|
lastfirst[T.BlackburnDan] |
-0.302 |
0.534 |
-0.565 |
0.572 |
|
lastfirst[T.ValiquetteSteve] |
-0.558 |
0.984 |
-0.566 |
0.571 |
|
lastfirst[T.DivisReinhard] |
-0.489 |
0.712 |
-0.687 |
0.492 |
|
lastfirst[T.HolmqvistJohan] |
-0.403 |
0.583 |
-0.690 |
0.490 |
|
lastfirst[T.TabaracciRichard] |
-0.383 |
0.523 |
-0.733 |
0.464 |
|
lastfirst[T.PrusekMartin] |
-0.538 |
0.724 |
-0.742 |
0.458 |
|
lastfirst[T.ColemanGerald] |
-1.474 |
1.907 |
-0.773 |
0.440 |
|
lastfirst[T.GageJoaquin] |
-1.474 |
1.907 |
-0.773 |
0.440 |
|
lastfirst[T.GustafsonDerek] |
-1.474 |
1.907 |
-0.773 |
0.440 |
|
lastfirst[T.HauserAdam] |
-1.474 |
1.907 |
-0.773 |
0.440 |
|
lastfirst[T.KochanDieter] |
-1.474 |
1.907 |
-0.773 |
0.440 |
|
lastfirst[T.MorrisonMichael] |
-1.474 |
1.907 |
-0.773 |
0.440 |
|
lastfirst[T.TrefilovAndrei] |
-1.474 |
1.907 |
-0.773 |
0.440 |
|
lastfirst[T.WilkinsonDerek] |
-1.474 |
1.907 |
-0.773 |
0.440 |
|
lastfirst[T.MaracleNorm] |
-0.424 |
0.538 |
-0.789 |
0.430 |
|
lastfirst[T.TallasRobbie] |
-0.481 |
0.568 |
-0.848 |
0.397 |
|
lastfirst[T.LabbeJean-Francois] |
-1.068 |
1.189 |
-0.898 |
0.370 |
|
lastfirst[T.HalakJaroslav] |
-0.452 |
0.477 |
-0.946 |
0.345 |
|
lastfirst[T.DubielewiczWade] |
-0.499 |
0.527 |
-0.948 |
0.344 |
|
lastfirst[T.ParentRich] |
-1.242 |
1.267 |
-0.980 |
0.328 |
|
lastfirst[T.MunroAdam] |
-1.251 |
1.267 |
-0.987 |
0.324 |
|
lastfirst[T.YeremeyevVitali] |
-1.251 |
1.267 |
-0.987 |
0.324 |
|
lastfirst[T.McLennanJamie] |
-0.476 |
0.434 |
-1.096 |
0.273 |
|
lastfirst[T.CassiviFrederic] |
-1.159 |
1.025 |
-1.131 |
0.259 |
|
lastfirst[T.CaronSebastien] |
-0.499 |
0.432 |
-1.155 |
0.249 |
|
lastfirst[T.BillingtonCraig] |
-0.556 |
0.465 |
-1.196 |
0.232 |
|
lastfirst[T.WreggetKen] |
-0.886 |
0.737 |
-1.201 |
0.230 |
|
lastfirst[T.NeuvirthMichal] |
-0.837 |
0.689 |
-1.215 |
0.225 |
|
lastfirst[T.MossTyler] |
-1.317 |
1.071 |
-1.230 |
0.219 |
|
lastfirst[T.BierkZac] |
-0.733 |
0.583 |
-1.257 |
0.209 |
|
lastfirst[T.SchwabCorey] |
-0.621 |
0.477 |
-1.301 |
0.194 |
|
lastfirst[T.GreissThomas] |
-1.474 |
1.125 |
-1.310 |
0.191 |
|
lastfirst[T.FlahertyWade] |
-1.065 |
0.724 |
-1.470 |
0.142 |
|
lastfirst[T.LamotheMarc] |
-2.860 |
1.907 |
-1.499 |
0.134 |
|
lastfirst[T.LarocqueMichel] |
-2.860 |
1.907 |
-1.499 |
0.134 |
|
lastfirst[T.SauvePhilippe] |
-1.474 |
0.890 |
-1.656 |
0.098 |
|
lastfirst[T.JablonskiPat] |
-2.572 |
1.488 |
-1.728 |
0.085 |