Slightly different results today: Slovenia pulls off a win thanks to weak goaltending despite not really getting close to the net during the game; Germany runs up the score on Australia; and Ghana wins an even game on a penalty kick.
| Home | Shots | Goals | Exp Goals | Away | Shots | Goals | Exp Goals | |
| Algeria | 10 | 0 | 0.90 | Slovenia | 7 | 1 | 0.13 | |
| Germany | 17 | 4 | 2.16 | Australia | 11 | 0 | 1.14 | |
| Serbia | 14 | 0 | 1.02 | Ghana | 15 | 1 | 0.99 |
My model doesn't correctly account for the higher shooting percentage on penalty kicks, so Ghana's expected goals are slightly higher. Don't ever underestimate the impact of awarding a PK.
