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June 13 World Cup Expected Goals

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Slightly different results today: Slovenia pulls off a win thanks to weak goaltending despite not really getting close to the net during the game; Germany runs up the score on Australia; and Ghana wins an even game on a penalty kick.

Home Shots Goals Exp Goals Away Shots Goals Exp Goals
Algeria 10 0 0.90 Slovenia 7 1 0.13
Germany 17 4 2.16 Australia 11 0 1.14
Serbia 14 0 1.02 Ghana 15 1 0.99

My model doesn't correctly account for the higher shooting percentage on penalty kicks, so Ghana's expected goals are slightly higher. Don't ever underestimate the impact of awarding a PK.