Exhibit A: 5v5 Shot % = SF/(SF+SA) for the last three seasons (the NHL started offering us this data just three years ago…hard to believe…)
Rank | TEAM | Year | 5v5 Shot% |
1 | DET | 2008 | 58.57 |
2 | CHI | 2010 | 58.04 |
3 | DET | 2009 | 56.22 |
4 | S.J | 2008 | 54.83 |
5 | NYR | 2008 | 54.77 |
6 | CHI | 2009 | 54.53 |
7 | WSH | 2009 | 54.44 |
8 | S.J | 2009 | 54.40 |
9 | WSH | 2008 | 54.36 |
10 | CGY | 2009 | 53.27 |
Precisely three teams have been 2+ standard deviations above the mean in this category: 2007-08 Detroit, 2008-09 Detroit and this year's Hawks. Last year's Pens team – once they installed Dan Bylsma behind the bench – was also right up there.
Teams that can achieve this level of performance quite literally will make it to the Stanley Cup finals. Philadelphia, while not a bad team, simply isn't in this realm. Nothing's guaranteed in sports, but Chicago is one of the safest bets you can make.