The offseason goaltending market is pretty ugly. Here are the 10 unrestricted free agents who have any consequential value above replacement level, ranked by even-strength save percentage since the lockout:
| Goalie | Age | EVSV% | EV Shots | $Val/1500 | $Val/Yr | $$ 2009-10 |
| Yann Danis | 28 | 926 | 1000 | 8.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| Dan Ellis | 29 | 923 | 2348 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.75 |
| Ray Emery | 26 | 923 | 3295 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 |
| Evgeni Nabokov | 33 | 921 | 6142 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 5.375 |
| Chris Mason | 33 | 919 | 4877 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 3 |
| Marty Turco | 33 | 918 | 6288 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 5.7 |
| Manny Legace | 36 | 918 | 4169 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 0.5 |
| Martin Biron | 31 | 917 | 4931 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| Peter Budaj | 26 | 915 | 3990 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.25 |
| Alex Auld | 28 | 914 | 3882 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
[That's cap hit, not salary, in the right-hand column.]
Replacement is pretty easy to define for goaltenders: Vesa Toskala or Jose Theodore. (There’s more to it – replacement save percentage ends up being 911.7, which is basically what Toskala and Theodore have done.) If we value one marginal free agent win at $2.3M (the price of free agent skater wins), we can determine a goaltender’s approximate value if he faces 1500 shots (approx. 50 games). Note that the average cost of a goaltender win is actually much lower because of the contributions of RFA and entry-level players.
Anybody excited about giving a multi-year contract to a goalie who's over 30 and hasn't performed all that well or played much recently? No? Then Dan Ellis will have many suitors!
There are a few other possibilities:
| Goalie | Age | EVSV% | EV Shots | $Value/1500 | $$ 2009-10 | Status | |
| Josh Harding | 25 | 927 | 1762 | 9.2 | 1.1 | RFA | |
| Jaroslav Halak | 24 | 925 | 2456 | 8.4 | 0.775 | RFA | |
| Carey Price | 21 | 923 | 3129 | 7.2 | 2.2 | RFA |
Each of these goaltenders will command large contracts with their respective organizations and/or will be in high demand in the trade market. Halak, Price and Harding probably offer $10+M of surplus value over the RFA period of their contract. From Montreal's perspective, there's no question in my mind that Price is a better investment than Halak going forward – Halak being more overvalued – but the odds of Montreal moving Halak are about 1-in-a-million.
