When teams lose (or win) a playoff series, there are a lot of explanations for why it happened. One that came up for the Washington Capitals was that they kept the puck outside and didn’t get as close to the net as they did during the regular season. The numbers don’t bear this out:
| Shot% | Shot% | ||
| Expt/EV | Actual/EV | Extra Goals | |
| REG | 6.46 | 7.80 | 39.61 |
| PLY | 6.48 | 6.46 | -0.05 |
| Shot% | Shot% | ||
| Expt/PP | Actual/PP | Extra Goals | |
| REG | 10.78 | 11.08 | 2.16 |
| PLY | 9.90 | 1.14 | -7.71 |
Note that these figures are based entirely on shot locations – I'm making no assertion about what you might call "shot quality". It is entirely possible that Washington failed to screen or get rebounds or get as many 2-on-1s as they did during the regular season. But they took their shots from the same locations as they did during the regular season – what bit them was regression to average luck at even-strength, and exceedingly bad luck on the PP.
For completeness, here's every team's regular season and playoff even-strength shooting:
| Regular Season | Playoffs | |||||||
| Shot% | Shot% | Shot% | Shot% | |||||
| Expt/EV | Actual/EV | Extra Goals | Expt/EV | Actual/EV | Extra Goals | |||
| WSH | 6.46 | 7.80 | 39.61 | VAN | 5.44 | 8.23 | 6.43 | |
| COL | 6.43 | 7.12 | 16.94 | DET | 5.99 | 7.26 | 3.14 | |
| VAN | 6.31 | 6.86 | 15.09 | PIT | 5.41 | 6.50 | 2.70 | |
| CHI | 6.09 | 6.37 | 8.62 | NSH | 5.89 | 7.26 | 2.46 | |
| PIT | 6.13 | 6.32 | 5.60 | BUF | 5.97 | 7.04 | 2.29 | |
| LAK | 6.20 | 6.04 | -4.19 | MON | 5.92 | 6.60 | 1.44 | |
| NSH | 5.89 | 5.72 | -4.86 | OTT | 5.21 | 5.91 | 1.41 | |
| SJ | 6.68 | 6.46 | -6.22 | CHI | 5.79 | 6.22 | 0.82 | |
| NJD | 6.15 | 5.89 | -6.95 | WSH | 6.48 | 6.46 | -0.05 | |
| OTT | 6.40 | 6.11 | -7.82 | PHI | 6.75 | 6.25 | -0.56 | |
| MON | 6.08 | 5.70 | -10.05 | SJ | 6.07 | 5.56 | -1.29 | |
| BUF | 6.49 | 6.11 | -10.72 | COL | 6.18 | 5.39 | -1.32 | |
| PHX | 6.18 | 5.72 | -12.90 | PHX | 5.81 | 5.07 | -1.60 | |
| BOS | 5.88 | 5.02 | -24.95 | LAK | 6.04 | 4.19 | -3.54 | |
| DET | 6.02 | 5.16 | -25.95 | BOS | 5.64 | 4.12 | -3.70 | |
| PHI | 6.81 | 5.63 | -33.18 | NJD | 6.09 | 2.67 | -5.14 | |
And on the power-play:
| Shot% | Shot% | Shot% | Shot% | |||||
| Expt/PP | Actual/PP | Extra Goals | Expt/PP | Actual/PP | Extra Goals | |||
| LAK | 9.48 | 10.09 | 3.92 | LAK | 10.51 | 21.74 | 5.17 | |
| VAN | 9.46 | 9.83 | 2.60 | OTT | 7.81 | 19.44 | 4.19 | |
| WSH | 10.78 | 11.08 | 2.16 | PIT | 9.07 | 14.00 | 2.47 | |
| NJD | 9.96 | 10.00 | 0.22 | PHI | 10.46 | 14.04 | 2.04 | |
| MON | 10.18 | 10.05 | -0.74 | VAN | 8.73 | 13.04 | 1.98 | |
| BOS | 9.01 | 8.70 | -1.58 | BOS | 9.52 | 13.33 | 1.72 | |
| CHI | 9.30 | 8.84 | -2.66 | MON | 10.36 | 11.76 | 0.72 | |
| COL | 10.53 | 10.04 | -2.77 | PHX | 9.30 | 9.84 | 0.33 | |
| PHI | 10.75 | 10.06 | -4.70 | DET | 10.25 | 9.09 | -1.02 | |
| OTT | 9.95 | 9.01 | -5.11 | CHI | 11.34 | 8.70 | -1.22 | |
| BUF | 10.68 | 9.15 | -9.20 | COL | 13.04 | 6.25 | -2.17 | |
| PHX | 9.86 | 8.19 | -9.40 | NJD | 10.38 | 6.67 | -2.23 | |
| NSH | 10.13 | 8.35 | -10.03 | BUF | 8.79 | 0.00 | -2.81 | |
| PIT | 9.82 | 8.24 | -10.78 | NSH | 8.13 | 1.82 | -3.47 | |
| SJ | 10.70 | 9.12 | -11.26 | SJ | 11.74 | 6.25 | -4.39 | |
| DET | 10.03 | 8.24 | -12.79 | WSH | 9.90 | 1.14 | -7.71 |
Washington simply had the most extreme run of bad luck imaginable – shooting 1-for-88 on the PP, even if you don't screen the goalie, is extremely unlikely. If we assume that Washington's power-play shooting percentage is merely average, the odds of doing it are about 1-in-800. That's not something we can attribute entirely to a failure to execute, but it's something that can happen in a short series.
