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Regression to the Mean comes for the Colorado Avalanche

Derek Zona had a piece yesterday on the recent collapse of the Colorado Avalanche.  Derek gives me credit for my analysis, but lest anything think I'm an oracle, it's not all rainbows and ponies over here.  I made some brutal predictions this year - Phoenix to finish 28th and probably start the season in another city, for example - but at least it seems like I nailed the Avalanche.  Three weeks ago I was very worried about them, but back in October, I was more prescient:

"If Colorado finishes with 98 points, 6th in the West, and makes a 1st-round playoff exit, their fans should be overjoyed"

Colorado probably won't hit 98 points, and the bookies currently have them around 40:1 odds (don't forget to adjust for the 58% vig) to win the cup.  That likely puts them around 45% to win their opening round series.  So Avs fans should still be happy - nobody thought the Avs had a chance this season, and in most parallel universes with anything other than amazing shooting luck, the Avs wouldn't have made the playoffs.