I'm just going to throw a couple of statistics out at you: the ratios of shots for to shots against; on the road; even-strength; with the score tied, as well as the PDO (shot% + save%) in this situation:
That, my friends, is this past season in a nutshell. San Jose ultimately did a good job of controlling the puck, and despite their good goaltending outcomes, had some bad shooting luck and didn't win quite as many games as we might have expected them to. Colorado, on the other hand, got absolutely shelled but had great goaltending and great shooting luck. Only Chicago and Washington were in Colorado's league as far as PDO goes, and both of them are up there because of what would seem to be better actual shooting talent than anyone else.
Back when Colorado was playing bad and winning, I suppose you could discount all of my concerns. I mean, so what if they were getting destroyed on scoring chances? They were a young team/hungry to win/nothing to lose/something to prove/loose/intense/all wearing their wrist bracelets/not prone to losing streaks because they would go after slump busters. But they laid an 0-7-6 regulation stretch on us to end the season where their magic shooting touch disappeared (7.6%) and their goaltending was weak (885 Save Pct). In other words, we know what happens when things break the wrong way for the Avs.
You might think that Colorado was at least good on the PP, but you'd be wrong:
Ok, so now we know that San Jose controls the puck at evens, has a much better PP than Colorado and the PK is a wash. Is there any aspect of the game where Colorado's better than San Jose? Just one: goaltending. Craig Anderson is a vastly better goaltender than Evgeni Nabokov, even if Nabokov has somehow managed to put up respectable numbers this season. Even so, that moves this series from San Jose as a 62% favorite in each game to 59% San Jose or thereabouts. Which puts SJ at 70% to win this series.
For Colorado to win, they will need lots and lots and lots of luck. Too bad they used it up the first dozen games of the season.
Sharks in 5.