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Olympic Hockey Semi-Final Stats Preview

Slovakia put a lot of pucks in the net just to be here...
Slovakia put a lot of pucks in the net just to be here...

You can see odds for individual games and medal in my post from yesterday.  I wanted to a quick run-down of statistical performance thus far for the teams in today's Semi-Finals.  First, for Canada-Slovakia, the ratio of close-in shots for to close-in shots against thus far:

 

TM SF SA RATIO
CAN 32.7 16.3 2.00
SVK 21.4 20.7 1.04

 

Remember that close-in shots are shots taken between the face-off dots and below the top of the face-off circle - the scoring "danger zone."  Slovakia has played more games against good teams (Czech, Russia, Sweden) than Canada has (USA, Russia), so we would expect Canada's shot ratio to be 20% higher than the Slovaks'.  Obviously, it's even better than that.  It's clear that Canada is the top team in this tournament, and Slovakia, despite being a sentimental favorite, is a solid #7.

In the other semi-final, we have:

 

TM SF SA RATIO
USA 26.8 18.5 1.45
FIN 24.3 18.8 1.29

 

The US has had the easiest schedule so far, playing just one tough game (Canada), while the Finns took on Sweden and the Czech Republic.  Given those opponents, Finnish performance thus far is actually slightly better than that of the Americans, but Team USA remains a 60% favorite.  I'll be at this game today, and, for what it's worth in international play, I imagine that the crowd will be very much on Finland's side.