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How often do you outshoot your opponent by 23 shots...and not win?

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Canada narrowly escaped with a win against Switzerland, taking everything down to the shootout tossup. But they outshot Switzerland 46-23, which, in a close game, normally indicates puck possession superiority. But does it lead to a high winning percentage? Going back to the 1995-96 season in the NHL, the answer is...no:

Outshot Win%
25 0.628
24 0.575
23 0.579
22 0.587
21 0.642

Even with a massive lead in shots, a team should barely expect to win 60% of the time, which is probably just slightly higher than Canada's odds of winning the shootout.