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Leafs and Habs watch

When we checked last week, there was still an argument that the Leafs might be worse than the Canadiens. Toronto's regulation winning percentage was better than Montreal's, but the Leafs goal differential was worse. Heading in to today's games, this is no longer true:

W% 0.393 0.345
GD/82 -53 -54
W% Rank 26 29
GD/82 Rank 26 28

Ricky Bobby's dad might have said "If you're not first, you're worst..." but moving up to 5th-worst is an accomplishment for the Leafs. In the offense and defense department, Toronto has also moved up a bit in the world, while Montreal's goal-scoring has slid even further.

GF/60 2.75 2.24
GA/60 3.39 2.90
GF Rank 16 30
GA Rank 27 19

Toronto's at home this week to Atlanta, the Islanders and Washington, with a road trip to Boston in the middle. Montreal plays Philadelphia at home, takes a pseudo-road trip to Ottawa, returns home to play Pittsburgh, then heads to Atlanta for a Saturday game. These schedules are roughly even - Toronto has an extra game at home, but Washington seems to be a better team than Pittsburgh. In the universe that is the 50th percentile of possible outcomes, Toronto should edge just slightly closer to Montreal this week.