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The Ugly Canadiens

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In their last 12 games, Montreal has been outshot by 67%, or 33-23 per game. Miraculously, they're 5-4-3 in regulation, and they've scored 33 goals and allowed 32. They've managed to do this with a 12% shooting percentage and a 920 save percentage, both well above their marks through the first 21 games - 7.7% and 905, respectively. The Canadiens have had a shockingly lucky season: they won their first eight games in extra frames, and now that their luck has subsided on OT and the SO, they've had a shooting percentage that's way over their heads.

The Leafs, on the other hand, are 7-3-2 in their last 12; have outshot their opponents by 17% (vs 8% for their first 20 games) and have outscored them 41-37. What we see now is a very bunched up set of standings in the East:

Team GP W L T OW OL SOW SOL GF GA Reg. WPCT
NYR 31 12 15 4 0 2 2 0 84 91 0.452
TAM 31 8 11 12 2 3 1 6 74 81 0.452
TOR 32 10 14 8 0 5 1 2 93 107 0.438
PHI 30 11 15 4 1 0 2 1 84 86 0.433
NYI 32 7 13 12 4 3 1 4 78 93 0.406
MON 33 7 15 11 4 1 4 2 77 92 0.379
FLA 33 6 14 13 1 2 5 5 82 104 0.379
CAR 32 4 19 9 0 3 3 3 74 111 0.266

The Bettman point makes the standings look a little different, but the 8th-14th teams in the East are all within 4 points of each other. Going forward, what I've shown here is a much better predictor of team performance than each team's "actual" record, and it's highly unlikely that Boston's going to get a lottery pick this season via Toronto.