In their last 12 games, Montreal has been outshot by 67%, or 33-23 per game. Miraculously, they’re 5-4-3 in regulation, and they’ve scored 33 goals and allowed 32. They’ve managed to do this with a 12% shooting percentage and a 920 save percentage, both well above their marks through the first 21 games – 7.7% and 905, respectively. The Canadiens have had a shockingly lucky season: they won their first eight games in extra frames, and now that their luck has subsided on OT and the SO, they’ve had a shooting percentage that’s way over their heads.
The Leafs, on the other hand, are 7-3-2 in their last 12; have outshot their opponents by 17% (vs 8% for their first 20 games) and have outscored them 41-37. What we see now is a very bunched up set of standings in the East:
| Team | GP | W | L | T | OW | OL | SOW | SOL | GF | GA | Reg. WPCT |
| NYR | 31 | 12 | 15 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 84 | 91 | 0.452 |
| TAM | 31 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 74 | 81 | 0.452 |
| TOR | 32 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 93 | 107 | 0.438 |
| PHI | 30 | 11 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 84 | 86 | 0.433 |
| NYI | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 78 | 93 | 0.406 |
| MON | 33 | 7 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 77 | 92 | 0.379 |
| FLA | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 104 | 0.379 |
| CAR | 32 | 4 | 19 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 74 | 111 | 0.266 |
The Bettman point makes the standings look a little different, but the 8th-14th teams in the East are all within 4 points of each other. Going forward, what I've shown here is a much better predictor of team performance than each team's "actual" record, and it's highly unlikely that Boston's going to get a lottery pick this season via Toronto.
