In their last 12 games, Montreal has been outshot by 67%, or 33-23 per game. Miraculously, they're 5-4-3 in regulation, and they've scored 33 goals and allowed 32. They've managed to do this with a 12% shooting percentage and a 920 save percentage, both well above their marks through the first 21 games - 7.7% and 905, respectively. The Canadiens have had a shockingly lucky season: they won their first eight games in extra frames, and now that their luck has subsided on OT and the SO, they've had a shooting percentage that's way over their heads.
The Leafs, on the other hand, are 7-3-2 in their last 12; have outshot their opponents by 17% (vs 8% for their first 20 games) and have outscored them 41-37. What we see now is a very bunched up set of standings in the East:
The Bettman point makes the standings look a little different, but the 8th-14th teams in the East are all within 4 points of each other. Going forward, what I've shown here is a much better predictor of team performance than each team's "actual" record, and it's highly unlikely that Boston's going to get a lottery pick this season via Toronto.