I won't keep you in suspense. Yes, it does. Toronto actually spends a below-average amount of time at 4-on-5, but that's primarily because they give up so many goals that their penalty-kills end early. Their 4-on-5 save percentage tells the story:
(You can see league-wide data here for 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10.)
It would be nice to blame that all on Vesa Toskala, but he's fundamentally a league-average goaltender, as hard as that may be to accept. No, the problem is with the Leafs PK. Let's take a look at the last two seasons:
|Shot Distance||33.7 ft||31.2 ft||34.5 ft|
So the Leafs weren't great in 2007-08 and they were basically the worst in the league in 2008-09. (In case you were wondering, they've given up 103 shots/60 this season, at an average distance of 28.3 ft. But it's early yet.) It doesn't matter who you have in goal - their stats aren't going to look good when you're this bad defensively. If Toskala had played behind a league-average defense, you'd think he was a league-average goalie, because that's basically what he is. There's no goalie in the entire league - perhaps in history - who the Leafs could have ridden to the 8th playoff spot in the East last year.