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New Puck Prospectus Article: Stanley Cup Scenarios

The key to predicting the performance of hockey teams is figuring out their "true talent," which is easier said than done. In baseball, numerous people make reasonable projections of playing time for each player on every team, along with predicting offensive and defensive contributions. With these projections, an expected level of performance for each team can be estimated. We're not there in hockey - all we have to go on is a team's actual performance; in particular, its expected winning percentage based on goals scored and allowed during regulation play. We can make adjustments to this winning percentage if the team faced a tough schedule or if it made significant trade deadline acquisitions or had star players returning from or lost to injuries. However, for the vast majority of teams - including the field this season - estimated "true talent" and actual performance are within a few percentage points of each other...