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2007-08 5v5 Goaltender Performance

By Hawerchuk
I've put together a simple first-order system to analyze goaltender performance. First, I calculated the probability of scoring from 2x2-foot quadrants using data from 2001 through last week's games:



I then took every shot faced by each goaltender and calculated the number of goals we'd expect an average goaltender to allow is he faced the exact same set of shots. [Note that shot distances are relative to the end boards, not to the goal line.] This is obviously a coarse estimate: we have no information on whether shots were defended or screened, and because of the difference in the way shot types are recorded in different arenas, I haven't differentiated between them. [Yes, in hopes of improving the system, I am happy to accept critical comments!]

At any rate, the table below shows the number of goals allowed by each NHL goaltender this season (minimum: 300 mins) and the expected number of goals allowed by an average goaltender.

So as an example, Henrik Lundqvist has allowed 41 goals on 567 shots at 5-on-5, for a 927 save percentage. However, an average goalie who faced the 567 shots from the same locations would expect to allow 58.3 goals, for an 897 save percentage. On a per-60-minute basis, Lundqvist's Goals-Against-Average is 1.90 - 0.80 goals lower than an average goalie. I'll publish some charts for individual goaltenders so we can compare the best goaltenders to the worst in this metric.

PLAYER STATS EXPECTED STATS
PLAYER GP TOI SOG GA SPCT GAA EXGA EXSPCT EGAA DELTAGAA
TIMOTHY JR.THOMAS 22 977:05 521 23 955 1.41 44.6 914 2.74 -1.32
HENRIKLUNDQVIST 31 1289:26 567 41 927 1.90 58.3 897 2.71 -0.80
CRISTOBALHUET 18 773:04 411 25 939 1.94 34.9 915 2.70 -0.76
ILJABRYZGALOV 25 924:13 442 25 943 1.62 36.4 917 2.36 -0.74
CHRISOSGOOD 19 797:26 337 22 934 1.65 31.7 905 2.39 -0.73
ROBERTOLUONGO 29 1160:50 536 30 944 1.55 42.7 920 2.20 -0.65
MARTINGERBER 24 964:07 542 38 929 2.36 48.1 911 2.99 -0.62
JASONLABARBERA 22 889:57 477 37 922 2.49 44.3 906 2.99 -0.49
EMMANUELLEGACE 23 934:54 394 28 928 1.79 35.6 909 2.28 -0.48
CAREYPRICE 17 728:33 386 29 924 2.38 34.4 910 2.83 -0.44
MARTINBIRON 28 1088:09 615 41 933 2.26 48.8 920 2.69 -0.43
JEAN-SEBASTIENGIGUERE 27 1013:22 433 31 928 1.83 37.7 912 2.23 -0.39
CAMWARD 27 1086:42 530 41 922 2.26 47.8 909 2.64 -0.37
RYANMILLER 31 1254:29 602 45 925 2.15 51.9 913 2.48 -0.33
RICKDIPIETRO 32 1283:57 601 46 923 2.14 52.4 912 2.44 -0.29
DANELLIS 14 502:01 230 16 930 1.91 18.2 920 2.18 -0.27
TOMASVOKOUN 32 1346:02 726 54 925 2.40 59.7 917 2.66 -0.25
VESATOSKALA 29 1168:59 554 47 915 2.41 52.0 906 2.66 -0.25
PASCALLECLAIRE 23 856:31 374 24 935 1.68 27.0 927 1.89 -0.21
NIKLASBACKSTROM 22 894:17 394 28 928 1.87 30.8 921 2.07 -0.19
MIKAELTELLQVIST 10 393:12 199 15 924 2.28 16.1 918 2.46 -0.17
ALEXAULD 15 620:41 296 22 925 2.12 23.7 919 2.29 -0.17
EVGENINABOKOV 35 1446:58 607 46 924 1.90 49.6 918 2.05 -0.14
FREDRIKNORRENA 15 527:50 237 20 915 2.27 21.0 911 2.39 -0.12
MIIKKAKIPRUSOFF 35 1438:23 660 54 918 2.25 56.8 913 2.37 -0.11
MARTINBRODEUR 30 1286:11 531 44 917 2.05 46.4 912 2.16 -0.11
NIKOLAIKHABIBULIN 25 970:42 421 39 907 2.41 40.4 903 2.49 -0.08
PATRICKLALIME 10 390:04 167 15 910 2.30 15.4 907 2.37 -0.07
MARC-ANDREFLEURY 21 760:41 388 32 917 2.52 32.4 916 2.55 -0.03
KARILEHTONEN 13 472:40 250 22 912 2.79 22.2 911 2.82 -0.03
JOHNGRAHAME 11 435:36 238 22 907 3.03 22.2 906 3.06 -0.03
PETERBUDAJ 22 906:00 419 35 916 2.31 35.0 916 2.32 -0.00
MARTYTURCO 25 1082:27 473 40 915 2.21 39.3 916 2.17 0.037
JOSHHARDING 15 579:25 313 25 920 2.58 23.6 924 2.45 0.138
DOMINIKHASEK 18 656:53 207 19 908 1.73 17.2 916 1.57 0.160
MATHIEUGARON 18 686:55 327 31 905 2.70 28.7 911 2.51 0.193
RAYEMERY 12 432:39 176 16 909 2.21 14.4 918 2.00 0.217
CURTISSANFORD 8 316:27 151 13 913 2.46 11.7 922 2.22 0.235
OLAFKOLZIG 28 1175:33 510 52 898 2.65 47.2 907 2.41 0.242
DANYSABOURIN 18 650:38 316 31 901 2.85 28.3 910 2.61 0.248
DWAYNEROLOSON 22 852:05 463 42 909 2.95 38.4 916 2.70 0.250
CHRISMASON 24 877:12 434 45 896 3.07 39.8 908 2.72 0.350
BRENTJOHNSON 9 344:40 165 17 896 2.95 14.7 910 2.57 0.386
MIKESMITH 12 465:48 206 22 893 2.83 18.9 907 2.44 0.387
HANNUTOIVONEN 10 394:32 195 22 887 3.34 19.1 901 2.90 0.436
JOHANHEDBERG 20 795:09 419 42 899 3.16 35.3 915 2.66 0.499
JOSETHEODORE 15 618:30 280 34 878 3.29 26.4 905 2.56 0.736
JOHANHOLMQVIST 30 1190:12 508 58 885 2.92 43.2 914 2.18 0.741
J-SEBASTIENAUBIN 13 427:15 214 24 887 3.37 17.9 916 2.52 0.848
ANDREWRAYCROFT 10 344:49 166 19 885 3.30 13.5 918 2.36 0.941