Quoth James Mirtle: "It's comical at this point how poor the Leafs PK continues to be. I don't even know what more there is to write on it after three years."

Toronto's Save % at 4-on-5:

2007-08: 855 (28th)

2008-09: 824 (30th)

2009-10: 848 (28th)

2010-11: 835 (30th)

2011-12: 829 (28th)

Now we know that Toronto's goaltending has absolutely sucked during most of this time, but their performance on the PK is even worse than we would expect. What's the deal? Show us some systematic analysis of Toronto's failures and you could win the "Shot Quality" prize.

Just wanted to remind everyone about our Holiday Jets Contest. Great prizes - be sure to send in your entry soon!

We are running our nth annual holiday contest - grand prize is the Upper Deck Commemorative Winnipeg Jets Card Set. Additional prizes include vintage/defunct NHL team t-shirts, or for American readers, copies of 'Forgotten Miracle: the untold story of the 1960 US Olympic Hockey Team.'

Here's how the contest works:

1. Each entry is a $5 donation to our favorite charity, Education in Need El Salvador. Maximum five entries per person, though you're welcome to donate more than $25!

2. Send your paypal receipt along with predicted final scores (including the phantom shootout goal) to "info at behindthenet.ca" for the following games:

Thu, 15 Dec 2011 Capitals-Jets
Sat, 17 Dec 2011 Ducks-Jets
Tue, 20 Dec 2011 Islanders-Jets
Thu, 22 Dec 2011 Canadiens-Jets
Fri, 23 Dec 2011 Penguins-Jets

You'll get one point for each goal that you're off by - lowest total wins.

3. Also include your guesses for the number of PP goals the Jets will score and allow over those five games for use as a tiebreaker.

We'll announce the contest winners on Dec 24 and send out the prizes shortly after. Best of luck!

I am pleased to announce our winners in the first annual fanpost contest:

1st place: Eric T - Offensive Zone Entries

2nd place: NGreenberg - Are certain teams more likely to get a scoring chance?

3rd place: garik16 - Who should win the Calder?

4th place: schuckers - MIT Sports Analytics Conference

5th place: SnarkSD - A new approach to looking at points

Winners - please email me to select your prize!

We here at Behind the Net have been accumulating swag all season for just one purpose: sending it out to our readers. We're running a fanpost contest through May 1 - everyone is eligible, one fanpost per person. Readers will vote at the end of the month and the top few will get sweet, sweet prizes. Shoot me an email at info at behindthenet dot ca if you post one.

Since I announced the Shot Quality prize almost three months ago, a lot of people have offered some very convincing research on the topic, and I have to say that my point of view has come full circle. For example, on the topic of team shot quality. Now I know that I would usually point to the fact that the year-over-year correlation in 5v5 shooting percentage is actually negative as evidence that it didn't exist as a talent. But there are certain teams that do possess this skill, even if the league as a whole doesn't.

Continue reading this post »

I have to say that I'm disappointed that we got zero entries for the 'Shot Quality Prize.' Hell, we didn't even get an outline of a research piece. I suppose Derek Zona and I are both a little wealthier because we didn't have to pay anything out for the prize, but I'd much rather have seen some intelligent pieces on the topic of shot quality.

So the contest is re-opened through the end of the Stanley Cup playoffs. And let me throw out some ideas to get you rolling:

- Are there players or teams with the ability to drive or suppress on-ice shooting percentage? What are their characteristics?

- Are there special teams systems that lead to higher or lower shooting percentage? How would we prove that they accomplish what we believe them to do?

- When we see transient highs or lows in shooting percentage, to what extent are they driven by transient shifts in shot quality?

- Are there certain teams that are more likely to get a scoring chance when they take a shot?

So go to it. $150 and fame are still there for the taking.

If I'm lucky, this will be the most exciting announcement between now and the Trade Deadline. Behind the Net is looking to add to its crack writing staff by way of a writing contest.

We'll accept submissions until March 16, 2011. We'll probably do something like have the participants in the 'League of Extraordinary Statisticians' look them over and pick a winner.

Grand Prize: A high-paying writing gig at Behind the Net

Other Prizes:

- DVDs of Forgotten Miracle, The Story of the 1960 Olympic Team

- Size XL T-Shirts from Defunct NHL Teams

- I might call in some favors for random swag from some Western Conference teams

Email your submissions to the address on the left sidebar...