2015 Draft NHL Equivalent Production

NHL Translations have always been an interest of mine. They are pretty powerful in allowing someone to compare players scoring paces in two different leagues. There are issues with them as well, some of which we will discuss in part.

Let's look at how the top ranked prospects have done in the scoring pace so far this season.

Note: This article is not in ranking the potential prospects from best to worst and will not be a debate over the usage of scoring in ranking skaters either. We will keep it simple. We know that stronger players tend to score more often than weaker players, this is especially accented in junior where the distribution in player talent is larger than in the NHL. We also know other factors beyond player talent can impact scoring. We also know that players can impact a game beyond scoring (ex: Corsi). However, we also know that scoring does have a statistically significant correlation with NHL scoring success and also draft success… so it is still pretty important.

Forward NHL Equivalency

It is highly recommended to compare this list to some popular scout rankings, such as ISS or CS. There are definitely some differences that stand out off the bat.

Anthony Beauvillier, Dmytro Timashov, and Nick Merkley have scored at top 10 rates, but are ranked quite lower by scouting bureaus. Their 5'10" listed height likely plays a large role with this, same with Jeremy Bracco's 5'9" stature. Yvegeni Svechnikov doesn't have the height issue, although his passport may play a role.

How will these players perform against someone like Lawson Crouse, a large forward who hasn't scored at elite rates but is highly touted. Crouse isn't just a crash and bang type either; early viewings seem to make him look like a guy who promotes good puck possession. However, it is true that NHL scoring tends to be more expensive per impact to get in free agency than puck possession, so it may still be worth gunning for a smaller scorer than Crouse… tough call though.

It's no coincidence that most of the players in European professional leagues fall at the bottom. NHLEs are constructed using players that move from one league to the other. The unfortunate aspect though is that the pro-leagues are different in that usually only blue-chip prospects are given top six minutes. Because of this, non-blue chip prospects tend to have their scoring abilities underrated.

No NHLE Forwards

There were some skaters viewed as top prospects that are not playing in leagues that we have ample data for constructing NHL translations.

Defender NHL Equivalency

For defensemen, NHLEs are a bit tougher, as scoring can be a bit more luck and usage orientated than for forwards, due to the smaller distribution and reliance on power play time. It has however been shown that scoring defensemen do tend to succeed more often than non-scoring defensemen, even if you split by which rounds they are drafted in.

The shortest ranked defender is also the highest scoring. It will be interesting to see where Mitchell Vande Sompel falls. Another interesting comparison to watch is between Hanafin and Werenski; both are big and mobile defenders, yet Werenski has been a much better scorer.

No NHLE Defenders

Here are some other defenders highly though of but are not in NHLE friendly leagues.