Pilots Logbook 2013-14: Anthony Peluso

Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports

The Winnipeg Jets 2013-14 season has been laid to rest. This series will take an in-depth look how the team and its players have performed, and some decisions that could push the Jets forward in the future.

After only playing five games last season, the Winnipeg Jets were finally able to get a look at Anthony Peluso... depending on what your opinion of finally is.

The Basics

GP G A P TOI/60 S/60 Sh% PenD
53 2 3 5 5.7 4.7 8.3 -2

Numbers are for all minutes.

Peluso's counting statistics do not appear that great at first. His points per TOI though is actually at par for a fourth line player. What is interesting though is that neither of the Jets coaches trusted Peluso with any ice time, with Peluso playing a full 2 minutes less than any other player. Unless Peluso becomes the next Joe Thornton or Alex Tanguay, those shots per minute numbers will need to rise.

Usage

Screen_shot_2014-06-04_at_4.09.02_am_medium

Player usage chart from extraskater.com.

EV Percentage of Team's Available TOI 5 on 5
ZS% ZS%rel EVTOI% PPTOI% SHTOI% QoC TOI% QoT TOI%
55.4 2.8 11.4 1.1 0.0 26.1 24.1
4th 7th 15th 13th 15th 15th 15th

Rankings are given for team out of 15 forwards to play 20 or more games.

Peluso played soft minutes. Very soft minutes. As noted, Peluso played significantly less minutes than any other player. Peluso also did not add any value in special teams.

Underlying Numbers

Pelusocorsi_medium

The y-axis is given to show the typical 40-60 sustainable spread seen for NHL calibre players. Players are compared to particular line/pair depending on 5v5 TOI per game. Population mean (average), median (50th percentile), and other percentiles are relative to player performance between 2007-12.

5v5 TOI Corsi% relCorsi% dCF/20 dCA/20 dCorsi%
5.72 45.6% -6.4% N/A N/A N/A

RelCorsi is the team's percentage of shot attempts with player on ice minus shot attempts with player off ice. Delta Corsi values are team's shot attempt rates with player on ice, but relative to league norm given similar usage (quality of teammates, quality opponents, zone starts, and TOI). dCF/20 is shot attempts for -where a positive number is above average-, dCA/20 is shot attempts against -where a negative number is above average-, and dCorsi% is percentage of shot attempts.

The numbers indicate that Peluso was just slightly below average, but also do not take into account that Peluso was in a battle with Eric O`Dell for easiest minutes on the team. Normally dCorsi% numbers would give some indication to how a player performs relative to their usage; however, Peluso played so few minutes per a game that he didn't even make enough minutes with 53 games played.

Conclusion

The Jets organization and some members of the media have sold Peluso as a more than just an enforcer; a fighter who can also play. The odd thing is neither of the Jets coaches have treated him as such. He has scored at a decent rate for an enforcer and looks to have good hands, but his previous AHL production and current shot rates suggest they may not be sustainable. His two-way numbers are also something to be concerned about.

Keep or lose?

In a bit of a head scratcher, the Jets gave a 25 year old a two year contract from a five NHL games look. The salary was basically league minimum, so it wasn't a contract that would be difficult to bury, but was was interesting none the less. His contract essentially costs nothing and he probably would never be a risk from waivers, so there is no need for the Jets to worry about keeping or losing. Hopefully though the Jets will have at least 12 players above Peluso in the depth charts.

This goes into a tangent, but... statistical guys often get inaccurately labeled as those who hate fighting and enforcers. This is technically false. The truth is that the whole point in sports analytics is in changing the way and order we value things. It's not that we say that grit, character, leadership or other intangibles have no value, but that they fans and/or GMs value these items over other things that will help improve the team more.

Bonus: a teeny-tiny bit more sample

Peluso played a few games in 2012-13, so we can slightly adjust the sample on the chart to a bit bigger... but doesn't really add much to what has already been said.

Pelusocorsi2_medium

All numbers are from Extra Skater, Behind the Net and Hockey Analysis

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