Winnipeg Jets 2013-14 Goaltender Optimization

Marianne Helm

We take a look into the schedule for the Winnipeg Jets and how best to utilize the current goaltenders.

Claude Noel had an interesting quote today about Ondrej Pavelec; not an abnormal quote but a good introduction to the subject at hand. Noel mentioned that he plans to make decisions day by day, when all indications are this is not the best route. Last season Noel played out the season like this and --as noted in Arctic Ice Hockey twice-- it hurt our team goals against and that could have been one of the major reasons why the Jets didn't make it into the playoffs.

Cam Charron mentioned in the first article linked how trying to play the hot hand doesn't historically work and the best method is having goaltenders essentially scheduled a head of time, with obviously minor adjustments when needed. So, we will conduct a bit of an experiment for fun. We'll make an optimized schedule for goaltenders using historical performance as a guideline and at the end of the year we'll compare this to the end results.

We already looked how both Pavelec performed similar to expected last season based on rest days.

Screen_shot_2013-08-13_at_1

This pattern isn't unique to Pavelec but true of all goaltenders. If we want to look at an updated historical data for Ondrej Pavelec and Al Montoya it looks like this:

Screen_shot_2013-09-11_at_2

From this information we can determine that the optimal days would be:

Pav 3+ rest 0.906
Pav 2 rest 0.930
Pav 1 rest 0.913
Montoya 3+ 0.908

So, let's now make our optimized schedule and compare the schedules hypothetical results versus last years 0.904 Sv%:

Date Visitor Home Rest Days Opt Starter Expected Sv%
2013-10-01 JETS OILERS 3+ Pavelec 0.906
2013-10-04 KINGS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-10-06 DUCKS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-10-10 JETS WILD 3+ Pavelec 0.906
2013-10-11 STARS JETS 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-10-13 DEVILS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-10-15 CANADIENS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-10-18 BLUES JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-10-20 PREDATORS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-10-22 CAPITALS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-10-24 JETS PREDATORS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-10-26 JETS STARS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-10-27 JETS AVALANCHE 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-10-29 JETS BLUES 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-11-02 BLACKHAWKS JETS 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-11-04 WINGS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-11-06 JETS BLACKHAWKS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-11-08 PREDATORS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-11-10 SHARKS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-11-12 JETS WINGS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-11-15 FLYERS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-11-17 JETS WILD 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-11-18 FLAMES JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-11-21 BLACKHAWKS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-11-23 WILD JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-11-25 JETS DEVILS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-11-27 JETS ISLANDERS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-11-29 JETS FLYERS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-12-02 JETS RANGERS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-12-05 JETS PANTHERS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-12-07 JETS LIGHTNING 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-12-10 BLUES JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-12-12 AVALANCHE JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-12-14 STARS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-12-16 JETS BLUE JACKETS 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-12-17 JETS SABRES 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-12-20 PANTHERS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-12-22 JETS CANUCKS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-12-23 JETS OILERS 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-12-27 WILD JETS 3+ Pavelec 0.906
2013-12-29 JETS AVALANCHE 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-12-31 SABRES JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-01-02 JETS SENATORS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-01-04 JETS BRUINS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-01-05 JETS PENGUINS 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-01-07 LIGHTNING JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-01-11 BLUE JACKETS JETS 3+ Pavelec 0.906
2013-01-13 COYOTES JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-01-16 JETS FLAMES 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-01-18 OILERS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-01-21 JETS DUCKS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-01-23 JETS SHARKS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-01-25 LEAFS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-01-26 JETS BLACKHAWKS 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-01-28 PREDATORS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-01-31 CANUCKS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-02-02 JETS CANADIENS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-02-04 JETS HURRICANES 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-02-06 JETS CAPITALS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-02-08 JETS BLUES 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-02-27 COYOTES JETS 3+ Pavelec 0.906
2013-03-01 JETS PREDATORS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-04 ISLANDERS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-03-06 KINGS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-08 SENATORS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-10 JETS AVALANCHE 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-12 CANUCKS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-14 RANGERS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-16 STARS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-17 JETS BLUES 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-03-19 AVALANCHE JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-03-22 HURRICANES JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-03-24 JETS STARS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-27 JETS SHARKS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-03-29 JETS KINGS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-03-31 JETS DUCKS 3+ Montoya 0.908
2013-04-01 JETS COYOTES 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-04-03 PENS JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-04-05 JETS LEAFS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-04-07 WILD JETS 1 Pavelec 0.913
2013-04-10 BRUINS JETS 2 Pavelec 0.930
2013-04-11 JETS FLAMES 3+ Montoya 0.908

Season Sv%: 0.917
Pavelec Starts: 71
Montoya Starts: 11

An optimized schedule was actually already provided to me by HFBoards member "Sixty Minute Man" and I just made some tweeks.

Now you may notice there is a LOT of Pavelec in this list, and he's unlikely to be starting this much. At 71 starts it is possible that Pavelec could start tiring out. You could place Montoya into the sections where Pavelec is playing a block of multiple single day rest games and there wouldn't be a huge difference.

Obviously things happen (like injuries, fatigue, etc) but it will be interesting to compare to the actual results at the end of the season.



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