FanPost

Winnipeg Jets 2013 Adjusted Corsi Rates

So I happened to be perusing Flames Nation earlier today and stumbled across an excellent article by Kent Wilson about Adjusted Corsi rates for the 2013 Flames roster. I decided to apply the formula listed in the article to the Jets Corsi rates to see what we can learn, much like he did with the Flames. I'm not terribly adept when it comes to statistical analysis but I thought it would be a fun exercise regardless.

Results are below. The only requirement I had to include players on this list was that they played 10 games minimum. First up are the forwards.

Player Corsi QoC Corsi QoT QualDiff O-Zone Start % Corsi Expected Corsi On Corsi Adjusted
Andrew Ladd 0.919 -1.082 -2.001 50.00 -1.911 5.21 7.121
Aaron Gagnon -2.154 -3.015 -0.861 35.60 -4.227 0.81 5.037
Kyle Wellwood -0.261 -1.102 -.841 48.00 -1.231 2.05 3.281
Alex Burmistrov 0.052 -0.187 -0.239 52.00 0.331 3.44 3.109
Blake Wheeler 0.717 -0.394 -1.111 49.20 -1.213 1.22 2.433
Mike Santorelli -0.236 -1.971 -1.735 52.60 -1.021 1.23 2.251
Patrice Cormier -1.957 -1.154 0.803 62.50 3.893 4.68 0.787
Eric Tangradi -0.954 -0.782 0.172 49.50 0.142 0.89 0.748
Bryan Little 0.909 0.318 -0.591 44.70 -1.773 -1.06 0.713
Evander Kane 0.474 -1.684 -2.158 53.90 -1.132 -0.61 0.522
Chris Thorburn -1.381 -2.467 -1.086 55.00 -2.436 -2.85 -0.414
Olli Jokinen 0.156 -1.160 -1.316 52.50 -0.626 -2.15 -1.524
Jim Slater -0.105 -1.416 -1.311 29.70 -6.093 -9.22 -3.127
Nik Antropov 1.074 -0.554 -1.618 55.90 -0.112 -5.76 -5.648
Mittens 0.457 -2.086 -2.543 54.70 -1.325 -9.05 -7.725
James Wright -1.182 -1.516 -0.334 47.20 -0.916 -11.28 -10.364

So what does this tell us? As far as I'm concerned, it reflects what we saw out of the team this season fairly well; Andrew Ladd was dominant, Wellwood and Burmi deserved legitimate shots in 2nd line roles and Kane held his own despite the crap linemates he was given. I was, however, fairly surprised to see Antro do as poorly as he did by this metric. It's nice that the 3 worst Adjusted Corsi players will in all likelihood not be on the roster next year.

I don't know about you guys but I think that Gagnon deserves a good look for the bottom 6 this upcoming season (I know, small sample, but he showed promise IMO). I hope we get him signed.


Next up are the defensemen.

Player Corsi QoC Corsi QoT QualDiff O-Zone Start % Corsi Expected Corsi On Corsi Adjusted
Paul Postma -0.678 -0.845 -0.167 60.9 2.539 6.17 3.631
Dustin Byfuglien 0.609 -0.840 -1.449 50.1 -1.335 1.21 2.545
Grant Clitsome -0.329 -0.583 -0.254 49.4 -0.308 0.35 0.658
Zach Bogosian 1.047 -1.543 -2.59 45.3 -3.628 -3.29 0.338
Tobias Enstrom 0.966 -0.047 -1.013 51.0 -0.683 -1.31 -0.627
Mark Stuart -0.207 -0.174 0.033 48.9 -0.141 -3.39 -3.249
Ron Hainsey 0.987 -0.808 -1.795 44.2 -3.097 -6.53 -3.433
Derek Meech -1.376 -1.001 0.375 53.4 1.281 -8.43 -9.711

Please please please let the negotiations with Meech fall through or at least ensure he is sent to St. John's for all of next season; worst numbers for our D by a country mile.

Postma's dominance of scrubs isn't terribly shocking; it will be interesting to see if he gets a bigger role next year. Despite having some "Free Pizza"-esque defensive gaffes, he looks to have earned a bigger look.

The rest of the numbers don't surprise me; Hainsey was serviceable in his tough role, Bogosian did as well as could have been expected and Stuart was mediocre. If Buff is around next year, here's hoping that both him and Toby stay healthy so they can get back to that dominant level we know they can play at.

Okay, I kind of lied above... Just for fun here are Redmond and Peluso. :P

Player Corsi QoC Corsi QoT QualDiff O-Zone Start % Corsi Expected Corsi On Corsi Adjusted
Zach Redmond -2.305 -0.931 -1.374 50.0 1.464 19.54 18.076
Anthony Peluso 0.900 -3.003 -3.903 70.0 0.987 29.98 28.993

Any comments, criticisms or thoughts? Discuss it below!

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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