Mark Scheifele: Three Years of CHL, now what?

Winnipeg Jets 2.0 first ever draft selection Mark Scheifele recently received his second consecutive OHL Player of the Week nod, where he has gone 41 points in 21 games played. It has been quite the ride the last 3 years for the Kitchener native. Statistically he has developed quite well in the OHL.

Draft Year P/GP	Year 2 P/GP	Year 3 P/GP
1.14	1.34	1.76

The problem with relying on such statistical progression is determining how much is progression and how much is just dominating those who are younger. Over on the twitterverse, some Jets fans were making snappy retorts about how Scheifele's accomplishments mean very little when accounting for his age. This brought up the idea of trying to find some comparisons… Well here is every first round pick drafted out of the CHL as a centre that played both seasons in the CHL after their draft in the ten year period of 1997-2009:

Name	Year Drafted	Draft Position	Height	Draft Pts/GP	Year 2 Pts/GP	Year 3 Pts/GP	NHL GP	NHL Pts	NHL Pts/GP
Daniel Tkaczuk	1997	6	6.01	1.50	1.32	1.81	19	11	0.58
Mark Bell	1998	8	6.04	1.09	1.25	1.50	450	182	0.40
Eric Chouinard	1998	16	6.03	1.22	1.76	2.08	90	22	0.24
Kris Beech	1999	7	6.02	0.60	0.99	1.30	198	67	0.34
Jamie Lundmark	1999	9	6.00	1.30	1.30	1.48	295	99	0.34
Scott Kelman	1999	15	6.03	1.11	0.86	0.63	0	0	0.00
Nathan Smith	2000	23	6.02	0.70	1.34	1.28	26	0	0.00
Brad Boyes	2000	24	6.00	1.21	1.53	1.64	606	407	0.67
Steve Ott	2000	25	6.00	0.94	1.58	1.66	614	244	0.40
Brian Sutherby	2000	26	6.03	0.74	1.31	1.25	460	90	0.20
Jeff Carter	2003	11	6.03	1.16	1.16	1.35	564	410	0.73
Ryan Getzlaf	2003	19	6.04	0.97	1.53	1.06	556	521	0.94
Marc-Antoine Pouliot	2003	22	6.02	1.12	1.38	1.63	192	57	0.30
Mike Richards	2003	24	5.11	1.30	1.53	1.35	575	425	0.74
Kyle Chipchura	2004	18	6.02	0.75	1.14	0.93	262	58	0.22
Rob Schremp	2004	25	5.10	1.15	1.45	2.54	114	54	0.47
Ryan O`Marra	2005	15	6.02	0.98	1.26	1.26	33	7	0.21
Claude Giroux	2006	22	5.11	1.49	1.78	1.93	333	290	0.87
Logan Couture	2007	9	6.00	1.44	1.14	1.40	232	167	0.72
Logan MacMillan	2007	19	6.02	0.81	0.89	0.72	0	0	0.00
Angelo Esposito	2007	20	6.00	1.32	1.23	1.20	0	0	0.00

All data was from hockeydb.com and input manually so there may be typo errors (if so, sorry)

Keep in mind that natural variance (aka: “puck-luck”) can heavily affect scoring stats both positively (Olli Jokinen 2011-12, Nazem Kadri 2012-13) or negatively (Eric Fehr 2011-12, Olli Jokinen 2012-13)
Usage can highly affect your scoring as well… according to some sources, Schremp played every minute of his team’s power play in his final CHL season
Prior to the 2011 draft, Scheifele was compared many times as a more playmaker version of Jeff Carter, and a 0.73 pts/gp in the NHL would be nothing Jets fans should complain about from Mark

Using the players above, Ben (AKA Betman's Nightare) created a predictive model using percent change:

Truth be told, this doesn’t clear up the debate, as it shows Mark could still end up anywhere from Kelman to Getzlaf, between or beyond. I heard it best said that Jets fans should be “cautiously optimistic” with Mark Scheifele’s success. In the end it is NHL success that matters, but Jet fans do have reason to be optimistic with the future emergence of Mark Scheiefel and Jacob Trouba.

Now just to troll the haters:

Talking Points