Mark Scheifele: Three Years of CHL, now what?

Marianne Helm

After completing his tenure in the OHL, Scheifele will be turning pro. So, where does Scheifele track and what should we expect of him?

Winnipeg Jets 2.0 first ever draft selection Mark Scheifele recently received his second consecutive OHL Player of the Week nod, where he has gone 41 points in 21 games played. It has been quite the ride the last 3 years for the Kitchener native. Statistically he has developed quite well in the OHL.

Draft Year P/GP Year 2 P/GP Year 3 P/GP
1.14 1.34 1.76

The problem with relying on such statistical progression is determining how much is progression and how much is just dominating those who are younger. Over on the twitterverse, some Jets fans were making snappy retorts about how Scheifele's accomplishments mean very little when accounting for his age. This brought up the idea of trying to find some comparisons... Well here is every first round pick drafted out of the CHL as a centre that played both seasons in the CHL after their draft in the ten year period of 1997-2009:

Name Year Drafted Draft Position Height Draft Pts/GP Year 2 Pts/GP Year 3 Pts/GP NHL GP NHL Pts NHL Pts/GP
Daniel Tkaczuk 1997 6 6.01 1.50 1.32 1.81 19 11 0.58
Mark Bell 1998 8 6.04 1.09 1.25 1.50 450 182 0.40
Eric Chouinard 1998 16 6.03 1.22 1.76 2.08 90 22 0.24
Kris Beech 1999 7 6.02 0.60 0.99 1.30 198 67 0.34
Jamie Lundmark 1999 9 6.00 1.30 1.30 1.48 295 99 0.34
Scott Kelman 1999 15 6.03 1.11 0.86 0.63 0 0 0.00
Nathan Smith 2000 23 6.02 0.70 1.34 1.28 26 0 0.00
Brad Boyes 2000 24 6.00 1.21 1.53 1.64 606 407 0.67
Steve Ott 2000 25 6.00 0.94 1.58 1.66 614 244 0.40
Brian Sutherby 2000 26 6.03 0.74 1.31 1.25 460 90 0.20
Jeff Carter 2003 11 6.03 1.16 1.16 1.35 564 410 0.73
Ryan Getzlaf 2003 19 6.04 0.97 1.53 1.06 556 521 0.94
Marc-Antoine Pouliot 2003 22 6.02 1.12 1.38 1.63 192 57 0.30
Mike Richards 2003 24 5.11 1.30 1.53 1.35 575 425 0.74
Kyle Chipchura 2004 18 6.02 0.75 1.14 0.93 262 58 0.22
Rob Schremp 2004 25 5.10 1.15 1.45 2.54 114 54 0.47
Ryan O`Marra 2005 15 6.02 0.98 1.26 1.26 33 7 0.21
Claude Giroux 2006 22 5.11 1.49 1.78 1.93 333 290 0.87
Logan Couture 2007 9 6.00 1.44 1.14 1.40 232 167 0.72
Logan MacMillan 2007 19 6.02 0.81 0.89 0.72 0 0 0.00
Angelo Esposito 2007 20 6.00 1.32 1.23 1.20 0 0 0.00

All data was from hockeydb.com and input manually so there may be typo errors (if so, sorry)

  • Keep in mind that natural variance (aka: "puck-luck") can heavily affect scoring stats both positively (Olli Jokinen 2011-12, Nazem Kadri 2012-13) or negatively (Eric Fehr 2011-12, Olli Jokinen 2012-13)
  • Usage can highly affect your scoring as well... according to some sources, Schremp played every minute of his team's power play in his final CHL season
  • Prior to the 2011 draft, Scheifele was compared many times as a more playmaker version of Jeff Carter, and a 0.73 pts/gp in the NHL would be nothing Jets fans should complain about from Mark
Using the players above, Ben (AKA Betman's Nightare) created a predictive model using percent change:
Tumblr_mmsz8ldh671rlkq4mo1_500_medium

Truth be told, this doesn't clear up the debate, as it shows Mark could still end up anywhere from Kelman to Getzlaf, between or beyond. I heard it best said that Jets fans should be "cautiously optimistic" with Mark Scheifele's success. In the end it is NHL success that matters, but Jet fans do have reason to be optimistic with the future emergence of Mark Scheiefel and Jacob Trouba.


Now just to troll the haters:
Screen_shot_2013-05-13_at_9
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