Winnipeg Jets Prospect Tracker: Ryan Olsen and Lukas Sutter swap point production

Bruce Bennett

The NHL lockout is over, but our coverage of shall continue on Winnipeg Jets' CHL prospects: Adam Lowry, Scott Kosmachuk, Lukas Sutter, Ryan Olsen, Austen Brassard, and Zach Yuen... and maybe Mark Scheifele.

The CHL season is approximately at the three quarter pole, so lets take a look at how the Winnipeg Jets' prospects have done thus far in 2012-13.

2010 5th Round: Yasin Cisse: 18GP, 6G 3A, 9 PTS, +3, 19 PIM

Year RelDraft G/GP A/GP Pts/GP
2012-2013 3 0.33 0.17 0.50
Projected 36GP 12 6 18

Not exactly what you would hope to come from an overage prospect, but Cisse hasn't exactly gone through a normal prospect developmental path. For Cisse, what matters is that he gets his game back on track to prepare himself for St. John's IceCaps tryouts this fall.

2011 1st Round: Mark Scheifele: 30GP, 22G 27A, 49 PTS, +19, 13 PIM

Year RelDraft G/GP A/GP Pts/GP
2010-11 0 0.33 0.80 1.14
2011-12 1 0.49 0.85 1.34
2012-13 2 0.73 0.90 1.63
Projected 48GP 35 43 78

Since the last update, Scheifele has only played one CHL game, in which he scored a goal, finished +2 and was awarded third star honours. Otherwise, Scheifele has spent his time representing Canada at WJC where he led the team in shots, goals, power play goals and game winning goals, finishing 10th overall in tournament scoring (with one less game played than 4 above him). This was all accomplished while playing out of position on Team Canada's top line. Mark finished the tournament with 5G, 3A and 8PTS in 6 games played. Scheifele now finds himself battling for a full-time NHL gig.

2011 3rd Round: Adam Lowry: 51GP, 33G 37A, 70 PTS, +14, 72 PIM

Year RelDraft G/GP A/GP Pts/GP
2010-11 0 0.27 0.41 0.68
2011-12 1 0.33 0.69 1.03
2012-13 2 0.62 0.70 1.32
Projected 72GP 45 50 95

In the first quarterly review we had predicted that Lowry may push to about 1.3 PTS/GP; well he's there now. As previously noted, Lowry has picked up his pace in early December, finishing on an eight game point streak with 13G and 5A, the longest player scoring streak of this WHL season. Since last quarter Lowry has not just produced points but exploded his +/- from an even zero to +14. With this offensive surge, Lowry has joined the small list of fan favourite prospects, similar to Ivan Telegin last season. However, one must stay humble as Lowry's PTS/GP progression has almost identically matched Telegin's which was 0.86, 1.03 and 1.39. The comparisons end there as Lowry plays a much fiercer game. Lowry's next challenge in his development will be to make his game transferable to the pro-level at St. John's.

2011 4th Round: Zach Yuen: 51GP, 4G 20A, 24 PTS, -12, 38 PIM

Year RelDraft G/GP A/GP Pts/GP
2010-11 0 0.11 0.33 0.44
2011-12 1 0.18 0.39 0.58
2012-13 2 0.08 0.39 0.47
Projected 71GP 6 28 33

Some had hoped to see an offensive leap in Yuen's development from last season, but currently it appears as though he tracks to be more of the stay-at-home defense type. His smooth skating abilities still impress, as he can turn effortlessly on a dime and commonly does to avoid forechecking forwards. Yuen will also likely be joining the IceCaps next fall, joining other Jets' defense prospects Will O`Neill, Ben Chiarot, Julian Melchiori and Cody Sol. The IceCaps' defensive outfit for next year should prove very intriguing, with potentially five left handed defensemen all in their first two years of professional hockey and all but one of them a defense first defensemen (unlike its parent squad). With only so many jobs to dole out, only time will tell who makes their final roster and who will have to cut their teeth at the ECHL level.

2011 5th Round: Austen Brassard: 42GP, 9G 11A, 20 PTS, +3, 65 PIM

Year RelDraft G/GP A/GP Pts/GP
2010-11 0 0.28 0.22 0.51
2011-12 1 0.42 0.38 0.80
2012-13 2 0.21 0.26 0.47
Projected 62GP 13 16 30

When Tyler Graovac was traded to Belleville, it instantly improved the Bulls and, subsequently, Brassard's offensive production. In their first game as linemates, both forwards finished with a goal and three assists. Unfortunately, their output has cooled since then, but Brassard did improve his PTS/GP production by 0.1. Brassard was also suspended for the second time this season for accumulating a fighting major and an instigator penalty in the last two minutes of play.

2012 2nd Round: Lukas Sutter: 51GP, 11G 8A, 19 PTS, -14, 126 PIM

Year RelDraft G/GP A/GP Pts/GP
2011-12 0 0.40 0.44 0.84
2012-13 1 0.22 0.16 0.37
Projected 72GP 16 11 27

Quote from last quarter's prospect tracker:

Well, some improvements from last time: first quarter 3pts, -12; second quarter 6pts, -2. Maybe if we're lucky, he'll score 12 points next quarter!

While Lowry currently holds the longest point streak in the WHL this season, Sutter went on a streak of his own, scoring consecutively in six games for the Saskatoon Blades, though he only picking up 6 goals and 1 assist during that timeframe. Lukas now has six less goals than Kosmachuk, four less than Scheifele and three less than Olsen, when looking exclusively at even strength markers. Due to his birthdate and variance in NHL draft, Sutter will be joining the 2011 draft class over in St. John's next fall.

2012 3rd Round: Scott Kosmachuk: 49GP, 25G, 23A, 48 PTS, +5, 75PIM

Year RelDraft G/GP A/GP Pts/GP
2011-12 0 0.45 0.43 0.88
2012-13 1 0.51 0.47 0.98
Projected 68GP 35 32 67

Kosmachuk's point production has slowed down considerably these past few months, placing him under a point per a game rate for the first time in our quarterly reviews. He still hovers close to a point a game, which is similar to Lowry and Telegin's draft+1 year. If the Jets' can continue to select players successfully like Telegin, Lowry and Kosmachuk in the middle rounds, the prospect cupboards won't seem as bare for long.

2012 6th Round: Ryan Olsen: 51GP, 27G, 22A, 49 PTS, +22, 81 PIM

Year RelDraft G/GP A/GP Pts/GP
2011-12 0 0.22 0.25 0.48
2012-13 1 0.53 0.43 0.96
Projected 70GP 37 30 67

As it stands, Olsen looks to be quite the steal for a the sixth round selection. And, given their similarities, it's always fun to compare Olsen to Sutter. At one time Olsen was rated higher in the draft, but then Ryan began to fall as Sutter rose. Olsen predominately played a bottom-six role in 2011-12 for the Saskatoon Blades, while Sutter got some time on the second line and powerplay unit. In 2012-13 Olsen was traded to Kelowna Rockets where he has carved his niche in their top-six and on the man-advantage, while Sutter has bounced between the third and fourth line in Saskatoon. After the draft they've seem to trade production rates, although their even strength goal scoring rates are similar. It's too bad that we don't have access to CHL player's TOI and usage, as it would be interesting to see if one has developed while the other has regressed or merely a shift in usage.

After the halfway point of the season, here is the statistical breakdown for each prospect:

Name Team GP G A PTS +/- PIM G/GP A/GP PTS/GP PPG PPA
Mark Scheifele Barrie Colts, OHL 30 22 27 49 +19 13 0.73 0.90 1.63 8 9
Adam Lowry Swift Current, WHL 53 33 37 79 +14 72 0.62 0.70 1.32 11 11
Scott Kosmachuk Guelph Storm, OHL 49 25 23 48 +5 75 0.51 0.47 0.98 9 8
Ryan Olsen Kelowna Rockets, WHL 51 27 22 49 +22 81 0.53 0.43 0.96 14 10
Zachary Yuen Tri-City Americans, WHL 51 4 20 24 -12 38 0.08 0.39 0.47 1 12
Austen Brassard Belleville Bulls, OHL 42 9 11 20 3 65 0.21 0.26 0.48 2 1
Lukas Sutter Saskatoon Blades, WHL 51 11 8 19 -14 126 0.22 0.16 0.37 1 0

Questions to Ponder:

  • Relative to what you were expecting, who has impressed you the most so far?
  • Relative to what you were expecting, who has disappointed you the most so far?
  • Do you agree or disagree with any of these predictions?
  • What changes would you predict from these young players?

What are your thoughts on the CHL season and our prospects? Let us know in the comments below!

Remember to follow us on Twitter @arcticicehockey for #jetsprospects updates!

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