Post-Game #FancyStats: Winnipeg Jets 1 vs Dallas Stars 4

Marianne Helm

A quick look into the underlying numbers of the game.

Shot Attempts

Team Corsi

5v5 Close 5v5 Overall
Dallas Stars 12 37 50
Winnipeg Jets 5 46 78

via www.extraskater.com

5v5 Player Data

# Player TOI CF CA CF% FF FA FF% SF SA SF% PDO
16 Andrew Ladd 11.3 13 10 56.50% 8 10 44.40% 7 8 46.70% 100
18 Bryan Little 13.1 13 11 54.20% 9 10 47.40% 7 7 50.00% 100
26 Blake Wheeler 12.8 13 12 52.00% 9 11 45.00% 9 7 56.30% 100
9 Evander Kane 15.8 14 13 51.90% 12 10 54.50% 10 7 58.80% 100
55 Mark Scheifele 11.9 13 13 50.00% 10 11 47.60% 8 8 50.00% 100
40 Devin Setoguchi 10.2 12 13 48.00% 11 10 52.40% 7 8 46.70% 100
27 Eric Tangradi 9 10 7 58.80% 8 6 57.10% 5 5 50.00% 80
12 Olli Jokinen 10 13 7 65.00% 11 6 64.70% 8 5 61.50% 80
67 Michael Frolik 11.7 14 5 73.70% 10 5 66.70% 8 4 66.70% 100
17 James Wright 7.3 8 7 53.30% 7 5 58.30% 3 4 42.90% 75
19 Jim Slater 7.2 7 6 53.80% 6 4 60.00% 3 4 42.90% 75
15 Matt Halischuk 8.5 8 7 53.30% 7 5 58.30% 3 5 37.50% 60

# Player TOI CF CA CF% FF FA FF% SF SA SF% PDO
39 Tobias Enstrom 16.4 21 13 61.80% 16 11 59.30% 13 8 61.90% 100
33 Dustin Byfuglien 16.9 21 15 58.30% 16 13 55.20% 13 9 59.10% 88.9
24 Grant Clitsome 11.7 9 12 42.90% 7 10 41.20% 5 9 35.70% 88.9
44 Zach Bogosian 16 17 11 60.70% 13 9 59.10% 9 8 52.90% 100
5 Mark Stuart 10.7 8 14 36.40% 8 12 40.00% 5 9 35.70% 100
8 Jacob Trouba 14.4 16 9 64.00% 12 7 63.20% 7 5 58.30% 60

via www.extraskater.com

*normally we do Close data here, but the data is so small there was about 1-3 mins for each player, as the Stars pulled away pretty quickly... though 5v5 isn't much better as Dallas went in a defensive shell for the whole 3rd period.

Fenwick Timeline

Starsfen_medium

via www.extraskater.com

Random Thoughts and Notes:

* There's two wrong narratives going on right now: 1) the Jets did better on faceoffs, allowing them to get back into the game... or 2) the Jets only caught back because the Stars sat back on their lead after deastroying them

* In my opinion (and looks like it statistically): the Jets were not beating but at least in the game. Then some pucks bounced in (for multiple reasons) but overall it was a close game in chances until about two thirds through the 2nd period... then Dallas finaly went into the defensive shell and the Jets rocketed up

* Essentially the Jets would have at least been in the game had they recieved either luckier bounces or better goaltending (more to that later)

* There's not much statistical analysis beyond all that thanks to sample bias effects

*... although I remember the Stars only had 1 Corsi event against when Frolik was on the ice about half way through the game, in fact Frolik finished with a Corsi% that was 25% better than the team averaged without him on the ice (the guy needs to be given more icetime!)

*... if we're talking about players relative Corsi%, Mark Stuart was about equally below the team average as Frolik was above... honestly, let's put Stu in the pressbox and try Clitsome-Postma as a bottom pair

Bonus Section: Non-Fancy Stat:

Pavelec performed at a 0.870 save percentage last night. Right around where we expected.

Noel, you can't say we didn't warn you...

Screen_shot_2013-08-13_at_1

Overall the team got out coached and goaltended, in my opinion...

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