Yesterday I posted a rather large comment on one of draft stories and was suggested to make a fan post. So, without further adieu my first fan post here:
To give you a reasonable background to this post, it is not made for supporting the rose-coloured glasses-wearing homers or to change the mind of the angry pessimists (Ben? Kidding). I'm someone who if I was GM (not suggesting that I'm better), I would have drafted Sean Couturier over Mark Scheifele, Radek Faksa over Jacob Trouba, and probably Martin Frk (or many others) over Lukas Sutter.
My gradings provided are based on a combination of what TNSE wants (size and character), skill level and success level at the position it was drafted, and (slightly) on what was available. After much cruising around on the internet, here are my thoughts on each selection.
1st round: Jacob Trouba (D) - USA U-18 Grade: A-
Trouba can be at worst a 2nd line Zach Bogosian: physical, defensive, and a good skater with a big shot. Although it is mentioned that we have a lot of defense in the system, most of them look to be 3rd pairings with slight second pairing upside. Trouba is the Jets first blue-chip defenseman. At the very minimum, I expect a good RH D who can destroy the PK (something that doesn't really exist to us) and support the PP. Trouba is very much like the defense version of Faksa; he has above-average skill in all things and can help both offensively and defensively. He's safer than Forsberg but both can develop into pieces people won’t want to play against. Also, the feared college loophole doesn't apply to him (just to clear that up for some). Only reason for the minus is that Grigs was on the board.
2nd round: Lukas Sutter (C) - Saskatoon Blades Grade: C+
Sutter is a fine pick in a draft but I would have rathered him as a 3rd-4th rounder; I think because he was a late riser in the last updated rankings it caused them to jump on it hoping for good value. Also, his family has genetics for late additional growth spurts, so there is a chance he may add another 2-4 inches in the next 2 years. And yes, as someone who has taken 3 years of genetics courses I understand it's no guarantee. But, on this site we love statistics and it is very likely given family history. He was used as a shutdown quite ofteC but still did well for points in his last junior year. Next year he’s going to get more top 6 minutes so it will be nice to see if his production takes a leap. Most likely a 3rd line C with 2nd line upside. Bottom 6 was our weakest link (with the exception of Pavs 30 games with less than .900 sv%) last year (yay GST, Stalpleton, Fehr and Mittens…) but looks like future is solved with Machecek, Cormier, Lowry, Telegin, and Sutter… All those (with maybe exception of Lowry) project as good 3rd liners who can fill in 2nd with injuries. Huge upgrade over GST. If this was a 3rd or 4th rounder I'd probably give an A, so instead they get an ok grade (slightly lower than my comment posted earlier).
3rd round: Scott Kosmachuk (RW) - Guelph Storm Grade: A+
Kosmachuk actually projects as a top 6 complementary piece to a lot of scouts. He is more of medium risk - medium reward. He plays a very gritty game but still can score heavy goals from outside and inside (30 goals to Yakupov's 31, ok so you can't directly compare that but just wanted to throw that in). I was pleasantly suprised and happy with this pick as he totally should have been picked up in the second round (would have felt better if Kosma and Sutter were switched in the draft). He's exactly what we were screaming at the TV for when Sutter was drafted, a potential top 6 forward. He also has a pretty decent chance of making it Pro for a non-first rounder. I kind of think of this a get-your-cake-and-eat-it-too draft pick. He's got TNSE character, plays tough, and can be a top 6 piece very similar to Ladd. He gets an A+ because he really should have been a standard 2nd rounder so we got great value there.
4th round: Eric Fehr trade, anywhere between F and B+
They didn't qualify Fehr, but that doesn't mean that talks aren't going on. If they weren’t at all interested in him, he would know. Currently a lot of his tweets have been possitive and about the Jets/TNSE. It's not a real reliable source but I can see him possibly coming back for just over 1 mil, 1 year, see-if-you-can-rebound type contract. It's no secret here that Fehr was screwed over from poor injury recovery, bad puck luck and a coach who really didn’t seem to be gunning for him. If he comes back and scores 15-20 goals, awesome; if he doesn't, thanks Chevy...
5-7th round: Connor Hellebuyck (G) - Odessa Jackalopes, Ryan Olsen (C) - Saskatoon Blades, Jamie Phillips (G) - Toronto Jr. Canadiens Grade: D- to F for all 3
I don't mind drafting two goalies since we have no depth there anymore with us not re-signing Fredrik Pettersson-Wentzel and Peter Mannino being a lost cause. I have difficulty that we drafted two basically unknowns when there were more accepted better options available. Maybe if one was off the board I'd feel better, but currently this makes me a tad scared. I think the 6th round was also a terrible choice. It's been very well documented that late rounds are better for high risk/high reward picks since pretty much everyone is high risk to even make Pro.
Overall: F to B...
Overall this draft is quite variable in its grading. We had a record-breaking amount of off-the-board picks and Euro sliders it seems. When you look at a lot of the success rates in drafting (can't find article; will post if found) the more successful (as determined by draftees making full time NHL gigs) tends to be in the 20-30% range so if our first 3 picks do end up becoming an all-around top line D, third-line shutdown C with offensive upside and second-line winger who compliments our top 6 well... I can call this successful in us gaining some pieces. Add in one of those goalies panning out, and you got a real gem of a draft. But, just like Couturier, many (including myself) will always have what-if's in the back of our mind. In summary we got size, grit, and character that can help teams win in both the regular season and in the post season, but this success will needed to be spearheaded by a core of succesfully fully developed Kane, Burmi, Sheif, Telegin and a group that hopefully won't regress by then of Ladd, Little and Wheeler.