The Jets' Potential Draft Picks, 39th Overall 2012

That is going to be one epic punch, Tanner.

After we've hopefully drafted a forward with our #9 pick, things start getting real by the middle of the 2nd round. Here, there's justification for selecting just about anyone outside of a goaltender. I'd still not be too wild about taking a defenceman (between who we've taken recently and who can be brought over from Europe, we're set for a few years), but it's worth noting that some great potential falls out of the 1st round due to red flags that could simply be maturity issues that sometimes go away (remember, these are kids we're talking about) and minor flaws that haven't to that point been fixed. Sometimes, it's just a matter of size, and we all know that great things can come in small, Tobias Enstrom-size packages.

Once again, I'm going to take the Consensus Rankings compiled by Derek Zona here to determine who will likely fall to us at the 39th pick, and then I will look at some potential bargains by using the rankings of the respected, possession-friendly Corey Pronman, found here.

UPDATE: Since Zona's May post (and my writing this one), he's provided an update for June, found here. I will include those updated rankings below.

I'm going to look at three forwards and three defencemen around the 39th pick, and then look at three (either defencemen or forwards) potential "fallers."

Consensus --- Forwards

Henrik Samuelsson --- RW --- Edmonton (WHL) --- 6'2" (188cm), 192 lbs (87kg) --- May Rk: 41, June Rk: 30

Season Teams Leagues/Tourneys TGP G A PTS PIM
2011-12 Modo Sr/J20/J18 SEL, SuperElit, J18 Elit 83 21 37 58 112

Edmonton WHL, M-Cup




2010-11 USNTDP/USNT U18/U17 USHL, USDP 92 25 32 57 200

USA U18/U17 WHC, WJC




2009-10 PF Chang's U18 Midget AAA 37 12 23 35 73

A crash-and-banger who likes to park in front of the net, Samuelsson's got some of that Tomas Holmstrom flavor complete with some skating issues. I don't care an ounce for drafting due to pedigree, but he is the son of Ulf Samuelsson.

Tom Wilson --- RW --- Plymouth (OHL) --- 6'4" (193cm), 194 lbs (88kg) --- May Rk: 37, June Rk: 28

Season Teams Leagues/Tourneys TGP G A PTS PIM
2011-12 Plymouth OHL 62 16 24 40 180
2010-11 Plymouth OHL 32 3 4 7 77

Canada Ontario U17 WHC




2009-10 Toronto GTHL 73 52 63 115 148

Wilson is a bit of a dark horse, a player with great size, a chip on his shoulder, and a workout warrior physique (he was by far the most impressive at the NHL Combine). But lifting Atlas stones and pulling locomotives with his teeth didn't dispel concerns about his skating and other aspects of his game (see Corey Pronman's analysis). The consensus loves his body and his hitting, but can he put it to good use?

Matia Marcantuoni --- LW,RW --- Kitchener (OHL) --- 6'0" (183cm), 170 lbs (70kg) --- May Rk: 39, June Rk: 50

Season Teams Leagues/Tourneys TGP G A PTS PIM
2011-12 Kitchener OHL 25 9 5 14 10
2010-11 Kitchener OHL 54 13 19 32 30

Canada Ontario U17 WHC




2009-10 Toronto GTHL 81 41 33 74 ---

St. Michael's CCHL




Marcantuoni, like Wilson, is far lower in Pronman's rankings than the consensus but for a different reason: injuries. There's little question of his potential, but myriad injuries (including concussions) have jeopardized his draft position and upped the risk.

Consensus --- Defencemen

Ville Pokka --- RD --- Kärpät (SM-liiga) --- 6'0" (182cm), 198 lbs (90kg) --- May Rk: 40, June Rk: 40

Season Teams Leagues/Tourneys TGP G A PTS PIM
2011-12 Kärpät Sr/U20 SM-liiga, Jr. A liiga 78 9 26 35 30

Finland U20/U18 International, WJC




2010-11 Kärpät Sr/U20/U18 SM-liiga, Jr. A liiga 81 7 32 39 71

Kiekko-Laser Jr. B SM-sarja, Fin2





Finland U18/U17 International, WJC, WHC




2009-10 Kärpät U18/U16 Jr. B SM-sarja, Jr. C sarja 56 11 32 43 28

Finland U16 International




Pokka is a quality, two-way performer that could use some work on his skating but otherwise demonstrates the ability to develop into a fairly solid pro. Corey Pronman goes into greater detail, but it's suffice to say that he's already playing a pretty grown-up game in SM-liiga.

Patrick Sieloff --- LD --- United States NTDP (USHL) --- 6'0" (183cm), 196 lbs (89kg) --- May Rk: 46, June Rk: 46

Season Teams Leagues/Tourneys TGP G A PTS PIM
2011-12 USNTDP USHL 30 0 2 2 55

USA U18 WJC




2010-11 USNTDP USHL 96 4 10 14 146

USA U18/U17 USDP, WHC




2009-10 Compuware U16 Midget AAA 37 2 8 10 52

The boxcars aren't going to impress anyone, but Sieloff is actually an effective defensive defenceman. Among other things, Pronman argues that Sieloff is a very effective hitter, and does so without compromising his defensive game. Even so, Pronman rates him way lower than the consensus, so he might not be the smartest choice at 39th.

Dalton Thrower --- RD --- Saskatoon (WHL) --- 5'11" (180cm), 179 lbs (81kg) --- May Rk: 35, June Rk: 36

Season Teams Leagues/Tourneys TGP G A PTS PIM
2011-12 Saskatoon WHL 66 18 36 54 103
2010-11 Saskatoon WHL 68 6 14 20 91
2009-10 Saskatoon WHL 60 0 7 7 67

Canada Pacific U17 WHC




Tell Thrower he's undersized at your own peril. Lauded by many scouts as "tough as nails", Pronman also sees some offensive upside in his adept passing and good agility. He and Zach Yuen could make a nifty little combo.

Fallers

Ville Pokka --- RD --- Kärpät (SM-liiga) --- Pronman 29, Consensus 40

Anton Slepyshev --- LW --- Metallurg Novokuznetsk (KHL) --- 6'1" (185cm), 181 lbs (82kg) --- Pronman 17, Consensus 51 (June Update Rk: 38)

Season Teams Leagues/Tourneys TGP G A PTS PIM
2011-12 Metallurg Novokuznetsk KHL 61 15 9 24 14

Kuznetskie Medvedi MHL





Russia U18 WJC




2010-11 Dizel Penza Russia3 30 14 5 19 10

Russia 18/U17 WJC, EYOF




2009-10 Dizel Penza Russia3 43 13 10 23 14

Nikolai Prokhorkin --- C --- CSKA (KHL) --- 6'2" (188cm), 183 lbs (83kg) --- Pronman 22, Consensus 60 (June Update Rk: 54)

Season Teams Leagues/Tourneys TGP G A PTS PIM
2011-12 CSKA Moskva KHL 50 12 28 40 67

CSKA-Krasnaja Armija Moskva MHL




2010-11 CSKA Moskva KHL 68 26 22 48 52

CSKA-Krasnaja Armija Moskva MHL




Pokka will be an enticing pick if we go with a forward in the 1st round, but otherwise I have a wacky idea: let's build a reputation as a European- (and even Russian-)friendly organization. The Winnipeg Jets of the past had such a reputation, and brought in a number of stellar European players well before it was commonplace. The risk of losing these players to the KHL is still overblown, and if there's really going to be such distance between a talent evaluator like Pronman and the rest of the scouting industry, we ought to take advantage.

With the update, here are some new possibilities (player name links to Pronman's analysis, "stats" to eliteprospects.com data):

Tanner Pearson (stats) --- LW,RW --- Barrie (OHL) --- 6'0" (183cm), 196 lbs (89kg) --- May Rk: 33, June Rk: 35

Daniil Zharkov (stats) --- RW,LW --- Belleville (OHL) --- 6'3" (191cm), 194 lbs (88kg) --- May Rk: 36, June Rk: 39

Jordan Schmaltz (stats) --- RD --- Green Bay (USHL) --- 6'2" (188cm), 174 lbs (74kg) --- May Rk: 32, June Rk: 37

So let's chew this over a bit: who do you take if we go D in the 1st? Forward in the 1st? Or do you think we should just go BPA? Whic risks are worth taking in the 2nd: injury, KHL, or low upside (like a defensive defenceman)?

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