Jets Home & Away Splits: A Look at the Numbers

Lately I've been wondering what to make of the difference in our home and away records. Are the Jets being motivated by the hometown crowd to play that much better? Or is it simply a case of shooting percentages and luck?

Here's a look at some of the numbers for the Jets at home and on the road.

Results taken from NHL.com and behind the net. The number in brackets indicates league rank, assuming results over the entire year. Rankings are always based from our perspective (for example low shot per game by the opposition means a high rank). Data taken prior to the March 22 overtime win against Washington.

 Home and Away Goal and Win Diff Goals W/L above 500 Home +27 +12 Away -42 -9

 ES Shots per Game Jets Opp home 25.1 (15) 23.3 (4) away 24.3 (18) 25.3 (14) total 24.7 (18) 24.3 (7) league average 25.3 (15) 25.4 (15)

 PP Shots per Game Jets Opp home 4.11 (20) 4.80 (23) away 2.94 (30) 4.91 (23) total 3.53 (29) 4.90 (23) league average 4.47 (15) 4.51 (15)

 Even Strength % Shooting % SV % home 8.0% (11) 92.6% (4) away 7.5% (8) 90.5% (29) total 7.8% (9) 91.5% (22) League Average 8.4% (15) 92.0% (15)

 PP % Shooting % SV % home 16.7% (1) 89.5% (4) away 9.7% (27) 84.3% (29) total 13.8% (25) 86.9% (23) League Average 11.2% (15) 88.8% (15)

To get a feel for how much these variances impacted the win/loss column I've calculate how many goals would result between us and league average over the course of the season and then assume 5 goals equals 1 extra win. (Based on this reference.)

Observations:

• We've been noticeably better at preventing shots at home than on the road (2 shots per game). This works out to about 4 goals (close to 1 win) over the course of a season.
• While overall the powerplay has not been good at generating shots, on the road we've been awful at it. We've generated about 1.2 shots a game less than league average. This works out to about 5 goals (1 loss) over the course of the season.
• Goaltending at home has been excellent. Goaltending on the road has been awful. (Overall goaltending has been below league average). Compared to league average, goaltending at home gained us 6 goals (1 win) over the season. Poor goaltending on the road cost us 16 goals (3 extra losses).
• The difference in goaltending also shows up on the powerplay. Once again, near the top of the league at home and near the bottom on the road. Compared to league average we picked up 1 goal at home but lost 8 goals (between 1-2 extra losses) on the road.
• Shooting percentage also varies between home and the road. At home we've picked up 6 goals (1 win) due to a high shooting percentage. Conversely we've lost 16 goals (3 losses) due to a low shooting percentage on the road.
• Finally our powerplay shooting percentage has been great at home, lousy on the road. We've gained 10 goals (2 wins) at home and dropped 3 goals (half a loss) on the road.

Conclusion

All totalled there are 3 reasons for the difference in our home and away records. In order of impact they are:

1. Goaltending. Poor goaltending has cost us about 4.5 losses on the road. Goaltending at home has resulted in 1 extra win.
2. Shooting Percentages. Low shooting percentage on the road have cost us 3.5 losses. High shooting percentage at home has resulted in 3 extra wins.
3. Team Play has only had a minor impact on our results. Poor play on the road has cost us 1 loss. Good play at home has resulted in 1 extra win.

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