Winnipeg Jets: Home-Ice Advantage

WINNIPEG, CANADA - MARCH 16: Alexander Burmistrov #8 of the Winnipeg Jets congratulates teammate Dustin Byfuglien #33 for his third period goal against the Washington Capitals in NHL action at the MTS Centre on March 16, 2012 in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. (Photo by Marianne Helm/Getty Images)

Much has been made of the difference in the Jets' play at home and on the road: as of Saturday, at home, they're on a 111-point pace; on the road, just 63 points. Where does this rank since the lockout?

Team Year Delta Team Year Delta
Detroit 2011 66.5 Minnesota 2006 44.0
Calgary 2006 56.0 Washington 2011 43.7
St. Louis 2011 50.8 Anaheim 2009 42.0
Calgary 2005 50.0 NY Islanders 2009 42.0
Florida 2005 50.0 Vancouver 2005 40.0
Winnipeg 2011 48.1 Montreal 2006 40.0
Minnesota 2009 48.0 Toronto 2005 40.0
Nashville 2005 48.0 Detroit 2006 38.0
Vancouver 2009 46.0 Columbus 2009 38.0
Chicago 2011 45.6 San Jose 2008 38.0

For the moment, 6th overall - though a playoff berth depends on them improving their road record and narrowing this gap. Detroit will finish #1 overall regardless of how their season pans out.

The big question, though, is whether there's anything meaningful in these outcomes. It's hard to say - the year-over-year correlation is -0.12 - tiny, but negative. At the same time, home-ice advantage is worth four points more per season in the Western Conference than it is in the East due to the increased travel distances in the empty parts of the continent. The rink itself is unlikely to play much of a role - Philadelphia and Boston have the smallest home-ice edge, with MSG 27th and Toronto 25th, while Columbus and Florida are 6th an 7th overall.

Bottom line: we're going to need a few more years before we can tell if this means anything.

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