Winnipeg Jets @ Washington Capitals Game Preview: Jets Seek To Capitalize On Opportunity To Pull Within Striking Distance Of Washington
This is a must win game!
Yes there may be 27 games remaining for the Winnipeg Jets, and 29 for the Washington Capitals, but both teams should look at this game as 2 points they need to have. Both teams have their reasons on why passing up an opportunity to seize control of their playoff fate would be a bad thing, even if it IS only early February.
For the Jets to stay in the playoff picture, by gunning for the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference as well as that top spot in the Southeast Division that comes with a nice #3 (or higher) seed in the Conference, this is a must win road game against the division leaders.
For the Capitals, the image is a little rosier. However, this is a team that needs to be aware that there are teams in hot pursuit of their division title, with the Florida Panthers only 1 point back and with a game in hand. The Jets are also close behind, only 4 points back but having played 2 games more than the Caps.
It's time to nut up or shut up!
Winnipeg knows what needs to be done, it's a matter of execution. Plain and simple, if they don't find ways to score goals they will not win games and they will not make the playoffs. The Jets do not typically get embarrassed on the scoreboard, as recent results will show they have not allowed more than 3 goals in a game since January 21 against Florida. However in that 6 game span they have only managed 8 goals for. And 2 of those were via Chris Thorburn! The team shot a 4.6% shooting percentage during that time.
On the flip side, in that 6 game stand, in which the team went 3-3-0 in 5 road games and 1 home game, the team only surrendered 13 goals, with a 92.7% Save percentage between Ondrej Pavelec and Chris Mason. So as mad as people get at Dustin Byfuglien for coughing up the puck and causing opportunities the other way, defense is not what is costing this team points.
It's up to management and the coaching staff to determine what the remedy to this problem is. Whether or not that includes buying or selling at the deadline is their call. One would think that the outlook for this franchise is "short term pain, long term gain" which would see the fostering of the defensive prospects already within the system, while bringing in offensive pieces via the draft and other transactions. If that means that this team is successful in the future, but misses out on the playoffs this year, I think our fanbase can accept that. This is not to say the team goes into Fail for Nail, or Sink for Grink mode, because not only does that go against the competitive nature of the game, but it's also a gamble. Our franchise already knows what it's like to draft someone first overall and see them splat against the wall. (Patrik Stefan, for those keeping track at home). You can find gems at any point in the draft, particularly the 1st round. Jordan Eberle went 22nd overall. He has 9 points in his last 5 games while his teammate Sam Gagner went 6th overall and he has 15 in his last 5. The point is it doesn't matter where you draft, as long as you draft well. Whether Winnipeg is 3rd, 8th or 15th in the Conference will be decided in time. Until then: winning is the main objective.
Keys to the Game, Player Numbers and Lineups coming up after THE JUMP
Keys to the Game:
- Get out the Viagra and get the PP going. I had a revelation the other night while watching the Jets fiddle around with their PP at the MTS Centre, and that was "Why Can't Buff play wing on powerplays?". At one point he found himself in front of the net with Toby and Little on the point and it seemed to work. I'd prefer to see something along the lines of Toby and Bogo manning the blue line, with Wheeler and somebody capable of winning a faceoff and scoring as the other forward. I'd say Wellwood for this game, but he didn't make the road trip as he's ill with the flu. Should Steam Punk (Tim Stapleton) be good to go, he's another candidate for the job. The Jets need a net presence, while still maintaining a threat of shots from the blue line. Having Bogo and Buff out simultaneously can do that. The second unit can consist of Antro in front with Hainsey and Oduya on point.
- Keep up the solid goaltending. The save percentages for Mason and Pavelec are respectable, even if their win column numbers aren't. If the Jets are to stay in contention, the back end needs to remain solid.
- Evander Kane. He didn't have any shots on goal last game. I don't know what the fancy Fenwick/Corsi stats say, as that's not my cup of tea, but he didn't look terribly threatening. If he is to be the offensive star of the future here in town, he needs to ignore what Gary Lawless says and focus on his game. Eat, Sleep, Breathe Hockey. I don't care if you're not scoring, so long as it looks like you're trying.
- If Chris Thorburn scores, the Jets will win. It's science!
- Drive the net, throw it to the net, get someone in front of the net. That's how goals go in. Providing screens and banging in rebounds or occasionally deflecting one in always helps. It doesn't have to be pretty, it just has to work.
- For a team with a lot of offensive players, the Caps have really not lit up the scoresheet too much this year. A current reason for these misfortunes would be the absence of top point getter Nicklas Backstrom, while Mike Green is also out, leaving Ovechkin and Semin to do the heavy lifting without the help of one of the most underrated set-up men in the league.
- Speaking of underrated, the acquisition of Tomas Vokoun by Washington General Manager George McPhee (I actually didn't have to look that up, which made my day) is probably the best move of the offseason. Other than the Jets coming to Winnipeg. Vokoun has put up numbers of 22-13-1, with a .920 SV% and a 2.47 GAA while making 1.5 million dollars this year, almost 5 million less than what he made last year with Florida.
- Keep it up. The win against Toronto on Tuesday may not have been a dominating performance, but it's a start. The Caps will be coming off a 4-0 win over those wankers from Sunrise so they know what it takes to win too.
Lineups
Jets (GP 55 25-24-6 56 PTS)
Forwards
#16 Andrew Ladd -- #18 Bryan Little -- #26 Blake Wheeler
#9 Evander Kane -- #80 Nik Antropov -- #17 Eric Fehr
#8 Alexander Burmistrov -- #21 Aaron Gagnon -- #20 Antti Miettinen
#15 Tanner Glass -- #19 Jim Slater -- #22 Chris Thorburn
Defencemen
#39 Tobias Enstrom -- #33 Dustin Byfuglien
#6 Ron Hainsey -- #4 Zach Bogosian
#5 Mark Stuart -- #29 Johnny Oduya
Goaltender
#31 Ondrej Pavelec
Tim Stapleton is an option to play, and if he goes I'd prefer to see Miettinen come out. Sure he gets opportunities, but mon dieu he does not make the most of them. I have bias towards Gagnon, but I feel he has done just fine since his call up.
Capitals (GP 53 28-21-4 60 PTS)
Forwards
#8 Alex Ovechkin -- #90 Marcus Johansson -- #20 Troy Brouwer
#25 Jason Chimera -- #85 Mathieu Perreault -- #28 Alexander Semin
#26 Matt Hendricks -- #15 Jeff Halpern -- #42 Joel Ward
#23 Keith Aucoin -- #21 Brooks Laich -- #83 Jay Beagle
Defencemen
#74 John Carlson -- #27 Karl Alzner
#81 Dmitri Orlov -- #44 Roman Hamrlik
#55 Jeff Schultz -- #6 Dennis Wideman
Goaltender
#29 Tomas Vokoun
UPDATE: Jay Beagle slots in for Mike Knuble, who is a healthy scratch
Player to boo mercilessly: Semin. He's just so easy to hate.
Prediction: Winnipeg 3-2 Washington. I'm going off the reservation and saying we score 3 goals. If this were a home game, somebody would get free tires. But alas we'll just have to settle for a road win.
GO JETS GO!
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this should be a hard fought game
two teams fighting it out for the SE Division. I love it. Vokoun has been playing very well lately and as Gabe’s data analysis shows, the Caps haven’t been playing that well in front of him. As Vokoun goes, so do the Caps.
May the best team win.
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos!
Contributor for Winnipeg Jets Blog, Arctic Ice Hockey. Follow me on Twitter @TJCAPS.
I believe they said Stapleton would be out today on the radio.
Even if he was was available, I would gladly chose Mittens over Stapleton.
I really like Stapleton as a 13th forward, but he is not an ideal 3rd or 4th line player and he has no business in the top 6. Eight of his 14 points have come on the powerplay, he isn’t great defensively and he is prone to getting man handled from time to time.
Mittens kills players and plays a much better two way game. He also generates more shots / game and thus more chances than Stapleton. The goals will come.
+1
Mittens is the more complete player, though he doesn’t have the numbers to show it. His scoring will come around.
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos!
Contributor for Winnipeg Jets Blog, Arctic Ice Hockey. Follow me on Twitter @TJCAPS.
by TJCAPS on Feb 9, 2012 11:27 AM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
I'm just saying
I look at the stats and see 7 goals next to Steam Punk’s name, and 0 next to Mittens’. We need offense
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Feb 9, 2012 11:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Shots lead to goals more than goals lead to goals.
8 PP points including 4 PP goals are a big part of what happened with Stapleton. He won’t get those minutes when we have everybody healthy… and he won’t kill penalties.
Stapleton has 15 more shots in 15 more games, so he only shoots slightly less than Mittens. He was also getting PP time while on the 4th line. The PK pairings have typically been Glass with Slater and Antro with Ladd
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Feb 9, 2012 1:48 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
because I'm anal
Steam Punk: 9.0 shots taken/60 5v5
Meat: 9.5 shots taken/60 5v5
So yeah, Mittens shoots more but not by much
This is the big point for me
Looking back 3 years, Meat has faced some pretty tough competition and done pretty well by Corsi Rel.
"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
This is a fair comment
Guy has produced in the past. Maybe I’m looking too much at what he’s done lately.
Mittens has a a high QoC so his Corsi Rel QoC is naturally higher.
I think Mittens QoC number is wacky, perhaps because of sample size issues. He’s currently first on the team (ignoring Machachak’s 2 games) at .054. The 2 next closest players are Slater at .019 and Dustin at .017. He’s miles ahead of everyone.
Yet this doesn’t match what I’ve seen. He’s played a number of games with Slater & Glass where I expect him to have had tough minutes. But he’s also played a number of games on the 4th line with the callups which are almost always against the other teams 4th line.
So after all that I guess I’m saying yes, I agree Mittens is facing tougher comp (and has a higher Corsi Rel QoC) than Stapleton but I don’t think it’s as big a difference as the #’s say.
Ignoring number...
I trust Mittens more offensively and defensively. I have noticed him doing more offensively in 5 on 5 situations. Stapleton has disappeared for long streaks, even against 4h line players, he is also prone to being man handled. I really like Stapleton, but I don’t like him as a bottom 6 forward… or a top 6 forward…
so you'd go for beers with him?
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Feb 9, 2012 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
Probably not.
I think he is an ideal 13th guy because of is versatility. I also appreciate his hard work and his story.
Versatile, yes
As he can play all 5 positions on the powerplay, quite so. I do like him as a depth guy. And I don’t want to see him sent down. Because in the next few days…someone has to go. Being healthy is catching up to us…finally.
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Feb 9, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
I'd definitely grab a brewski with him
Seems like a really down-to-earth guy in his interviews
"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 10, 2012 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
Meat's definitely the better player overall
I see Steam Punk as fine on the 4th line, taking advantage of some opposing team’s goon lines.
"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions
Mittens has been generating a lot of chances. The goals will come.
I don’t expect him to lead the team, but he isn’t inept offensively.
More shots on goal / game, less powerplay time.
Stapleton really isn’t that effective 5 on 5, prone to getting man handled.
I like your idea of Bustin moving to the front of the net
He seemed to do it a bit very earlier in the season but lately not so much.
My preference would be to line him up on the point but give him the option of moving down low occasionally. I’d like to see a mix of different options & setups on the PP. Predictable powerplays seem easier to defend against.
It's all well and good
As long as somebody cycles up to cover for him. If he gets caught, it’s not entirely his fault.
"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
Nope. Rover doesn't work
Guys like Little end up playing point, where inexperience keeping the puck in can get exposed and lead to short-handed opportunities against
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Feb 9, 2012 1:51 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think Little can handle the point but I see what you're saying
I like Dustin on the point as well. He generates a lot of shots and he opens the ice for other guys since other team ends up playing him tight.
I guess I’m selfish and want it both ways.
True I also like Buff on point
More saying we need someone in front on the powerplay. The bigger the better. Naturally Buff comes to mind
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Feb 9, 2012 2:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well, my hope was Wheeler could accomplish that in some capacity
But he’s not nearly as physical as I’d like a big guy to be
"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2012 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
I still see him banging along the boards
But not out front. He just doesn’t channel his inner Holmstrom
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Feb 9, 2012 3:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Washington Lineup Update
Jay Beagle is on at 4th line right wing in place of Mike Knuble, who is a healthy scratch.
Jets lineup remains unchanged from Tuesday, as Stapleton is still being held out. Whether he’s ready to go or not is a different story
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey

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