Fun with charts - Alex Ovechkin: before and after Dale Hunter

by Hawerchuk on Feb 8, 2012 12:41 PM EST in Analysis

For the year, Alex Ovechkin has a 48.1% Fenwick ratio and a 47.4% goal ratio (GF/[GF+GA]). Since Dale Hunter took over, Ovechkin's Fenwick ratio has been just 44.5%, while his goal ratio has been much higher, at 51.7%. Here's Ovechkin's work since Hunter took over:

Bruce Boudreau suffered from some bad percentages even though the Caps were moving the puck in the right direction during his tenure. Under Dale Hunter, they took a step back in the possession department but haven't been bitten quite as badly by the percentages. The net result is that a weaker Caps team is now in "3rd" place place in the East as "opponents" Winnipeg and Florida crash down to where we expected them to be. The Caps are a good team (my pre-season pick to win the East) but I'm skeptical that Hunter is contributing much to their success.

Tweet Comment 12 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Hunter is awful

My beef with Boudreau was that he wasn’t sheltering Ovechkin enough with Joel Ward and was picking up precious few zone starts. Under Hunter, there just aren’t any zone starts to go around.

They’ve become a bad team, held together by the occasional dominant performance from Tomas Vokoun.

Drop at line at The Backhand Shelf or any of the fine Nations Network blogs: Canucks Army, Jets Nation, The Leafs Nation
@camcharron

by camcharron on Feb 8, 2012 12:44 PM EST reply actions 2 recs

Japers’ Rink had a great post on Hunter’s problems as a coach yesterday, which is probably worth a read in combination with this brief piece.

Reporter: "What’s your Mom’s birthday?"
Tortorella: "I have no idea."

by Wheeler on Feb 8, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

Glen Gulutzan has similar transgressions.

Until the AS break every non-4th liner had sub 50% OZ%.

Mike Ribeiro, and his terrible defense and 40% FO%, had been trusted to start in a defensive posture.

The rookie coaches are failing.

Defending Big D Check it out
Twitter
"You guys are talking about living forever like it’s a real thing, but I bust out a man shoving his head into a vagina, and it’s srs time?"
--iorange555 8/23/2011

by Josh Lile on Feb 8, 2012 1:32 PM EST up reply actions

Correct me if I’m wrong but doesn’t a lot of that have to do with the fact that the Stars just don’t earn all that many offensive-zone draws? Of course that still doesn’t explain the bizarre decision to throw Ribeiro of all people to the wolves.

by The Neutral on Feb 8, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions

I've thought about this a lot lately

It’s probably worth exploration…

"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin

Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey

by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 8, 2012 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

The argument against the amount being the issue is that there is no distinction AT ALL between the lines.

Outside of the 4th liners everyone else has been in the same 45-48% cluster. He openly acknowledged a desire to roll three lines when he took over, and he’s followed through with that.

Since the all star break (before last night) Ribeiro/Ryder/Nystrom have been 60+ guys while Fiddler/Dvorak have been 35% guys. They’ve changed some things, but it’s still been bizarre.

by Josh Lile on Feb 8, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions

I get your point

I was thinking more along the lines of “are there teams that simply give up a lot of defensive zone faceoffs?” I think sometimes it’s better to compare within the team, rather than Player A on Team A to Player B on Team B, as you are doing Josh.

"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin

Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey

by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

Ah, gotcha

by Josh Lile on Feb 21, 2012 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah, I don’t see them as a good team anymore. Their Fenwick Tied has dropped about ten percentage points since the Hunter hiring. I’m skeptical that there’s much in the way of discernible differences between the impact of NHL-caliber coaches but I’m equally skeptical that Hunter is an NHL-caliber coach. The system he’s imported from London (which is, as far as I can tell, limit everything at both ends of the ice and pray for a lucky bounce) just doesn’t work and will likely bite the Capitals in the ass down the stretch as that SV% regresses.

by The Neutral on Feb 8, 2012 1:15 PM EST reply actions