BW Chart for Jets vs Lightning 2/2
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 4, 2012 12:33 PM EST
in Analysis
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PrintFinally getting around to the next couple; the start of the semester is always a bit crazy for me. We've had a string of close games, including a shootout victory over the Philadelphia Flyers, this OT victory over the Lightning, and a tight battle with the Florida Panthers. In all cases, I think we can see that our offence is still struggling, even with Dustin Byfuglien in the fold. Things could certainly stand to get better (our PDO is still balls-low), but I will forward the fact that we knew the offence would be problematic going into the season. Let's have a look at the Lightning game...
Key
Vertical blue lines -- Our goals
Vertical black lines -- Their goals
Shaded green -- Powerplays
Shaded red -- Penalty kills
- After some back-and-forth in the first 30 minutes of the game, the Jets took a serious nosedive, only saved by the fact that we managed a goal near the end of the 2nd. While the goal seemed to spark a small uplift, we fell even further in the 3rd.
- Our saving grace was a bit of a rebound in the OT, finishing with a Kyle Wellwood game-winner. I love that guy.
- Andrew Ladd's slashing penalty in the late 3rd was dumb dumb dumb. Thankfully, the kill bailed him out.
- One thing that gets lost in our offensive doldrums is that our goaltending has been fantastic. All the small mistakes have been offset by some big play in close games.
- Y'know how we were getting hosed on games we should've won? Well, we very likely should not have won this one...
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(our PDO is still balls-low), but I will forward the fact that we knew the offence would be problematic going into the season.
I thought PDO was considered mostly a measure of luck.
That's a big part of it
But certain teams demonstrate the “ability” to keep it higher or lower than 1000. Boston’s extraordinary goaltending/defence is a primary example, and the combination of era and talent kept the 1980s Oilers well above 1000. Staying consistently below is less common (teams understandably don’t like to be consistently poor at anything), but not impossible either. A suggestion I made a week or so ago still stands: I think in the future, the more-exceptional (or more-deficient teams) might be referred to as “1010” and “990” teams.
"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 4, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
I think our PDO woes are pretty much a result of luck. Nothing suggests to me that we shouldn’t expect close to league average shooting or save %. The last few years #’s are pretty middle of the pack:
09/10
S%: 9.5%
SV%: .908%
PDO: 1003
10/11
S% 8.4%
SV% .901%
PDO: 985
I agree with the “1010 & 990 suggestion”, at least on the defensive end. Boston or Columbus are good examples of this. Question though: has anyone found any post lockout teams with shooting % repeat ably higher or lower than average?
BTW Ben, if your still floating around cyberspace can you have a look at that Fanshot I put up and let me know if it works? I’m still trying to figure out how to post a few graphs I came up with.
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