The Winnipeg Jets and Missed Shots League-Wide
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 10, 2012 9:01 AM EST
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PrintThis comes from a couple of points made by Alex Hemsky (comment here, and post here), where we discussed the possibility that the Jets might be missing a lot of shots (and consequently playing better than regular shot on-goal totals). It's not an out-there suggestion; we inherited an Atlanta Thrashers team that had a lot of shots taken by defencemen in 2010-11 (33.6%, the highest percentage since the 2002-03 Colorado Avalanche's 33.9%), and it played a part in the team coming in 4th in the league in road missed shots despite ranking only 16th in road shots-for. Note: I use road data to avoid potential home scorer's bias. I think just about any fan thinks their team misses a lot of shots or gets a lot of shots blocked, but have the misses continued to plague us this year?
First of all, we still have a fairly high amount of our shots taken by defencemen, at 29.6% (considerably higher than the league average the past five years, 25.7%). I would forward that part of the reason we are south of 30% could likely be due to losing Dustin Byfuglien for about a month, as he was a big part (pun intended) of the defensive shooting last year. As for the Winnipeg rank in road missed shots:
| Team | M/G |
| Boston Bruins | 13.26 |
| Ottawa Senators | 12.48 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 12.45 |
| San Jose Sharks | 12.35 |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 12.28 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 12.19 |
| St. Louis Blues | 12.18 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 12.15 |
| Washington Capitals | 11.77 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 11.75 |
| Phoenix Coyotes | 11.63 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 11.56 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 11.54 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 11.44 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 11.26 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 11.07 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 11.04 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 10.84 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 10.81 |
| New Jersey Devils | 10.81 |
| Dallas Stars | 10.80 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 10.72 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 10.65 |
| New York Islanders | 10.50 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 10.42 |
| New York Rangers | 10.41 |
| Minnesota Wild | 10.38 |
| Florida Panthers | 10.31 |
| Nashville Predators | 9.54 |
| Calgary Flames | 8.90 |
Well, that's pretty high. The interesting thing here is that this is partly on the forwards, since Bustin was gone for so many of our road games in January. How about our road shots-for:
| Team | SF/G |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 33.9 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 32.8 |
| Detroit Red Wings | 32.5 |
| San Jose Sharks | 32.2 |
| Boston Bruins | 30.7 |
| Los Angeles Kings | 30.7 |
| Vancouver Canucks | 30.6 |
| Ottawa Senators | 30.3 |
| St. Louis Blues | 30.2 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | 29.9 |
| Colorado Avalanche | 29.4 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 29.2 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | 29.1 |
| Montreal Canadiens | 28.4 |
| Phoenix Coyotes | 28.3 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 28.1 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 28.1 |
| Washington Capitals | 28.0 |
| New York Islanders | 28.0 |
| New Jersey Devils | 27.7 |
| Florida Panthers | 27.7 |
| Minnnesota Wild | 27.4 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 27.3 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 27.0 |
| Dallas Stars | 26.8 |
| Nashville Predators | 26.3 |
| Calgary Flames | 26.2 |
| New York Rangers | 26.1 |
| Edmonton Oilers | 25.0 |
| Anaheim Ducks | 24.6 |
Boy, 3rd in road missed shots and 17th in road shots-for sounds awfully familiar. Revisiting Alex's post, let's recall that Bustin is far from the worst offender here; he and Tobias Enstrom are the best defencemen for hitting the net (which makes sense). So...forwards having trouble hitting the net, defencemen having trouble hitting the net - shooting clinic anyone?
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Do you have a breakdown of league averages (missed shot percentage) by position.
I guess what I am asking, are Buff and Toby on the top end for D men? What is the average? I also would be somewhat curious to see if there is any type of relationship between a low missed shot percentage and production. Over the long haul, you would think that elite snipers / goal scorers would likely miss the net at a lower rate than maybe 2nd or 3rd line players.
Over the long haul, you would think that elite snipers / goal scorers would likely miss the net at a lower rate than maybe 2nd or 3rd line players.
Interesting thought. I can see 2 factors affecting this:
1). Goal scorers may be getting their shots off closer to the net than most which should lead to hitting the net more.
2). Non-goal scorers may not be actually be trying to beat the goalie clean. A lot of their strategy may resolve around putting it on net & hoping for a rebound.
by Alex Hemsky on Feb 10, 2012 10:32 AM EST up reply actions
Both points worth looking at
Apparently there’s some bias in shot distance recording as well, which should be fun. Probably want to do an internet search, as I know there’s a couple of articles to see on the topic.
"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 10, 2012 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
good stuff
Some random thoughts & ideas in my head:
- Any feel for just how bad the home scorer’s bias is on this?
- We both left blocked shots out of the equation. Maybe that’s a good thing, not sure.
- I’m still wondering about the link between distance of shot & misses.
- Blake Wheeler actually has the lowest average distance yet he’s actually the worst forward at hitting the net.
Ours isn't too bad
But when comparing league-wide I have to consider all the other teams’ scorers. Really, there’s a ton of research into recording bias (probably one of the best is by JLikens), and basically there are a few outlier teams that definitely over- or under-record, but even that has changed over time. As for blocked shots, since there is very small (if any) demonstrable skill in avoiding blocked shots (see Sunny Mehta), I’m not sweating it.
As for the distance thing, I don’t doubt it. Part of the reason why I look into defencemen as a share of team shooting is that is one surefire scenario where the distance would be different, but further research into forwards and the like would be interesting (a cursory search churns up a couple of articles).
"You can't polish a turd." -- George Carlin
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 10, 2012 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
yeah, they really miss the net frequently. what compounds it is the fact that they always try to set up for the “perfect shot” instead of taking what’s given by their opposition.
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos!
Contributor for Winnipeg Jets Blog, Arctic Ice Hockey. Follow me on Twitter @TJCAPS.
I believe the Jets miss the net on the highest percentage of their shots...
Also, it find it to be interesting that there isn’t an obvious correlation between missed shots, or even percentage of shots missed and winning / losing.
"...shooting clinic anyone?"
Yes, yes. Can anyone recall who were the best & worst Jets for the shooting accurate drill at the Jets skills competition?
Kyle Wellwood won going 4 for 4 under 10 seconds
In Canada our balls are bigger
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by canadian texan on Feb 10, 2012 7:29 PM EST up reply actions
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