Playoff Probabilities Using Score-Adjusted Fenwick
Jealous that Snark is over at Fear the Fin, but that doesn't mean we can't have visitation rights. So, what's the Jets' probability of making the playoffs (using a fairly stable statistical predictor)?
4 months ago
Bettman's Nightmare
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My non math pure guess probability calculations
Had the Jets with about a 20% chance of getting in.
by truck on Jan 28, 2012 12:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions
My calculator gives us a 15.8734% chance of getting in.
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You apparently aren't interested in commenting on the Colts, but instead just want to take shots at editors for how we manage our blog. Thus, you're now no longer welcome.
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Jan 28, 2012 3:18 PM EST reply actions
Interesting how even a short run of bad PDO can really fuck you when you’re on the bubble. Of course, it’d be even worse if the model were based on GF/GA, like SportsClubStats. SCS has the Jets at ~15% chance to make the playoffs, while the Fenwick model has them at ~35%.
It also really serves to highlight how many teams might as well give up and go home. Anyone below 10th in the East can pack it in now, and while more teams appear in it in the West, realistically there’s five teams vying for one spot, if you assume that LA’s a good bet for 7th. Ah, “parity.”
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