BOSTON, MA - JANUARY 10: Tuukka Rask #40 of the Boston Bruins stops a penalty shot by Chris Thorburn #22 of the Winnipeg Jets in the first period on January 10, 2012 at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
I looked at the difference between the finishing talents of 1st- and 4th-liners last week and reader jeffgm suggested that home and road data might show the impact of line-matching on goal-scoring. Here's the data:
|Quality||Shot %||Quality||Shot %|
Shot quality shows a home-road differential but all lines maintain the same small difference in each situation. Finishing performance, on the other hand, shows what I think we expect: shooting percentage drops on the road because the home coach can choose who to match lines with. The interesting thing is the jump in shooting percentage for 4th liners - what's going on there? It's not clear to me how you construct a scenario where the 4th line gets easier matchups on the road than at home. Over 114000 shots, it's not likely to be a statistical anomaly.