The State of the Jets: Mid-Season

Majestic.

As of this writing, the Jets sport a decent 20-16-5 record through 41 games, good enough for 45 points and a shot at the playoffs. This is actually roughly in line with the "Reasonable Expectations" poll we took in late June, where over 60% of the voters expected the Jets to finish 16th to 25th in the league, with 31% selecting 16th to 20th. With half the season behind us, this is a good time as any to revisit some of the analysis I explored in November, along with a few other measures to see how we've done. Are we a 90-point team? Which players have been a big (or small) part of our success?

First of all, a quick superficial projection of player stats, made easy by the fact that we're at exactly halfway through the season:

Player GP G A Pts PIM PPP SHP SOG ShP
Blake Wheeler 82 16 46 62 44 16 0 186 8.6
Evander Kane 80 36 26 62 62 10 0 310 11.6
Dustin Byfuglien 70 12 36 48 92 18 2 246 4.9
Kyle Wellwood 82 16 30 46 4 12 0 102 15.7
Bryan Little 66 22 20 42 20 16 2 150 14.7
Nik Antropov 66 10 30 40 48 10 0 104 9.6
Andrew Ladd 82 26 12 38 58 8 0 268 9.7
Zach Bogosian 82 6 28 34 94 8 0 156 3.8
Alexander Burmistrov 76 16 18 34 44 4 2 140 11.4
Tim Stapleton 64 12 12 24 4 14 0 70 17.1
Tobias Enstrom 42 2 22 24 28 16 0 58 3.4
Tanner Glass 82 8 16 24 86 0 0 98 8.2
Johnny Oduya 80 4 16 20 44 0 0 68 5.9
Jim Slater 74 14 4 18 38 0 2 118 11.9
Mark Stuart 78 6 8 14 112 0 2 72 8.3
Ron Hainsey 34 0 12 12 12 2 0 34 0.0
Mark Flood 46 6 6 12 16 4 0 50 12.0
Chris Thorburn 82 0 6 6 96 0 0 72 0.0
Antti Miettinen 18 0 4 4 0 4 0 14 0.0
Randy Jones 24 2 0 2 8 0 0 20 10.0
Eric Fehr 34 0 2 2 12 0 0 42 0.0

Obviously, some of these guys will be playing more or less in the 2nd half, and some of these numbers will regress. Regardless, it's good to see Kane and Wheeler having quality years so far. It's also awesome to see the kind of year Wellwood's having.

Now to the nitty-gritty...

Player GP Now 55TOI Now SF/60 Now SA/60 Now OZS% Now
Alexander Burmistrov 12 38 13.77 13.33 24.0 26.5 22.5 24.3 60.2 54.9
Andrew Ladd 12 40 13.49 13.65 32.2 31.3 25.9 25.1 58.2 53.6
Blake Wheeler 12 40 13.91 14.28 30.6 30.4 28.0 28.2 56.5 53.0
Bryan Little 12 32 14.20 14.17 31.3 29.2 26.8 27.3 57.9 48.5
Chris Thorburn 12 40 9.34 9.24 16.6 22.4 34.3 29.2 29.5 48.1
Eric Fehr
16
8.67
29.0
22.5
59.3
Evander Kane 11 39 12.68 14.60 30.5 30.8 20.6 25.0 71.2 56.8
Jason Jaffray
13
6.32
35.8
24.8
43.2
Jim Slater 10 36 11.05 12.51 15.7 22.4 33.1 33.0 26.1 29.4
Kyle Wellwood 12 40 11.87 12.81 28.2 30.7 24.0 22.5 61.5 57.7
Nik Antropov 12 32 13.07 13.17 24.1 29.9 24.5 25.6 60.0 58.4
Tanner Glass 12 40 10.27 11.49 18.0 22.5 32.1 31.5 28.3 36.2
Tim Stapleton 8 32 8.93 8.04 24.4 27.3 30.2 24.9 71.1 55.2

Player G Now 55TOI Now SF/60 Now SA/60 Now ZS% Now
Dustin Byfuglien 12 35 18.90 18.39 29.4 30.6 25.7 26.0 52.3 49.2
Johnny Oduya 11 39 14.13 15.78 19.3 28.6 31.3 27.7 51.2 46.7
Mark Flood 1 23 13.68 12.81 21.9 26.5 17.5 26.9 50.0 54.0
Mark Stuart 11 38 14.12 15.11 24.3 26.5 30.5 28.2 56.6 52.0
Randy Jones 7 11 12.95 13.99 11.9 17.5 24.5 25.0 51.2 54.1
Ron Hainsey 4 16 13.73 16.61 19.7 23.5 17.5 28.2 54.8 42.2
Tobias Enstrom 11 20 16.75 17.35 31.3 29.1 20.5 22.8 51.5 51.0
Zach Bogosian 12 40 16.34 17.10 27.2 28.4 31.2 27.7 57.0 48.5

This is the first set of advanced stats. Each metric has an initial column that was measured in November, and the accompanying column tells us whether the numbers have improved. Be sure to pay attention to things like GP and TOI throughout; small samples make for funky numbers. The Andrew Ladd 55TOI second column is supposed to be green, by the way.

Player QoC Now PDO Now 54TOI Now SF/60 Now 45TOI Now SA/60 Now
Alexander Burmistrov 3rd 6th 1052 1009 1.91 1.60 23.5 36.6 2.44 2.21 43.0 37.8
Andrew Ladd 10th 4th 975 966 2.83 2.39 38.9 38.9 2.42 1.97 39.3 39.6
Blake Wheeler 13th 11th 973 1009 2.43 2.32 39.1 40.8 0.38 0.21 52.9 36.4
Bryan Little 11th 5th 970 1018 2.76 2.70 39.8 38.9 2.41 2.04 47.8 48.6
Chris Thorburn 8th 8th 1003 964 0.22 0.09 45.9 49.3 1.61 0.86 43.6 45.5
Eric Fehr
9th
927
0.31
60.0
0.02
0.0
Evander Kane 5th 7th 962 1004 1.70 2.30 57.7 45.4 0.07 0.07 78.3 45.3
Jason Jaffray
13th
964
0.18
25.0
0.00
0.0
Jim Slater 2nd 2nd 1066 992 0.31 0.20 38.1 58.1 1.81 2.31 36.5 54.8
Kyle Wellwood 1st 1st 1006 973 1.62 1.95 40.1 40.0 0.20 0.09 25.0 16.1
Nik Antropov 6th 10th 1014 994 2.01 2.05 34.8 36.5 2.09 2.28 40.6 40.3
Tanner Glass 9th 3rd 1063 1004 0.19 0.09 80.0 82.9 0.61 1.60 57.8 59.2
Tim Stapleton 12th 12th 981 971 0.85 1.32 70.9 38.3 0.00 0.07 --- 0.0

Player QoC Now PDO Now 54TOI Now SF/60 Now 45TOI Now SA/60 Now
Dustin Byfuglien 4th 1st 957 968 3.43 3.54 43.7 41.6 0.65 0.70 46.0 29.6
Johnny Oduya 9th 6th 1033 1001 0.51 0.32 10.7 32.7 2.43 2.49 26.9 36.2
Mark Flood 8th 7th 1000 1008 0.00 1.18 --- 53.1 0.00 1.47 --- 44.5
Mark Stuart 3rd 3rd 1006 976 0.08 0.06 67.9 26.9 3.78 3.17 44.8 50.5
Randy Jones 10th 8th 1045 1032 0.00 0.04 --- 0.0 1.57 1.29 54.7 58.2
Ron Hainsey 1st 5th 1071 1052 1.22 1.09 49.1 38.8 2.67 2.62 33.6 47.1
Tobias Enstrom 2nd 2nd 977 978 3.94 3.52 45.7 45.5 3.39 2.17 53.1 52.6
Zach Bogosian 5th 4th 993 977 2.29 2.64 34.9 37.1 2.71 3.38 40.6 44.6

A lot of interesting conclusions we can take from this, including the fact that it appears that Bogosian is truly developing into a quality two-way defenceman (and...shit). A lot of our offence has improved, and it is arguable that the improvement has come at the expense of some defence. The biggest PDO mirages seem to be the "lack" of production of both Ladd and Byfuglien, who could have impressive 2nd halves. The PDOs, in general, seem to allude that we can indeed sustain our success into the 2nd half of the season, a musing further confirmed if you look at our PDO (991) and shot charts from this year (found via Behind the Net):

Wpg_2011_medium

via behindthenet.ca

Player GP Now GS Now ESSA Now ESSV Now ESSV% Now -Tm -Lg
Chris Mason 4 11 2 7 49 170 44 157 0.905 0.924 0.011 0.005
Ondrej Pavelec 11 33 11 33 253 765 229 698 0.898 0.912 -0.011 -0.007

Another important factor in our improving record was better goaltending. Pavelec's ESSV% stands to increase even more, and Mason's performance is not altogether unusual for him.

Finally, the Jets' Fenwick Close percentage is good enough for 16th in the league, another confirmation that we are looking at a fringe playoff team. Granted, the bounces might not go our way in the 2nd half, but despite our struggles on the road the Jets have the ability to play some good hockey down the stretch.

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