That Nagging Optimism
by Bettman's Nightmare on Aug 24, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
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PrintI'm a pessimist by nature; my wife will tell you that, hell my dog will tell you that ("Sorry, Lola, but that rabbit is far, far more agile" "I'm sure those dog treats are tasty, but they're probably reconstituted pig anuses"). Part of it comes from my research, part of it comes from fantasy sports and the nature of predictions. Optimism is an emotional roller coaster; it's genuine, and so too is the disappointment from an expectation unfulfilled. I guess that's why I never liked cheerleaders (that, and the sexism).
But I'll be damned if the Jets haven't been a fly in my ear.
It comes from staring at the pages too much. All of a sudden two, three players look like they could improve from last year; others might regress, but not so much. Evander Kane's on nearly everyone's watch list for breaking out; Blake Wheeler had such a strong 23 games with Atlanta, he must be able to continue some of that success. Bryan Little, Ondrej Pavelec, Andrew Ladd, Dustin Byfuglien, and Tobias Enstrom are either nearing or fully in their primes, and it seems like almost everyone else is younger. Even Nik Antropov seems like a player who could bounce back.
All those rationales are common, preseason-mentality kinds of rationales. Everybody and their pet monkeys are in "the best shape of their life" in training camp, Jonas Hiller has no vertigo, Sidney Crosby had Gak injected into his skull so he'll never get a concussion again* (or was it Floam?), and every coach's "new" system is custom-designed to mystify their opponents and cause Pascal Dupuis to score 80 points.
So when I saw the Thrashers' success in outshooting their opponents after the All-Star Break last year (something I noted in the "Getting Defensive" series in the spring), I didn't realize it was going to make me into a homer by the end of the summer. I'll be damned if the neat new blog Driving Play didn't reconfirm the reasons for that optimism last Friday with this solid post. The long and short of it is that the Thrashers, despite their record, played some pretty good hockey after a few personnel changes, including most prominently the addition of Blake Wheeler and the subtraction of Rich Peverley. Zach Bogosian was given more defensive responsibility, and in general there were signs of (shock!) an Atlanta team that might play a little defense. Of course, Chris Mason played pretty terribly and the change didn't show much in the standings, but that little kernel of reason for optimism planted itself and now I can't get it out.
For as tempered as I usually am about expectations for this team, I don't think this reason for optimism is entirely unfounded. We might see an (albeit slightly) improved team from last year's Thrashers. It's not enough to get me to predict the playoffs for Winnipeg (pessimism doesn't ever leave, it just gets drowned out every once in a while), but it's not baseless to hope this team can sneak into the playoffs.
You know what they say: sometimes when life gives you reconstituted pig anuses, make dog treats.
* Let me entertain this idea further: he'd make farting noises whenever someone hit him, he'd smell like glue, he could lift newspaper print with his face, he'd harden if left out in the the open air too long...
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The Jets are going to be terrible. Bottom five in the league for sure. You should be scared because my record on predicting this kind of thing is really really good. I predicted the exact number of points that the Thrashers got last season in a contest with the local Atlanta paper.
Your organization has made the same exact moronic moves that we got every year from our GMs. “Let’s sign some AHL defensemen who can’t help us in the NHL!”. “Are there any offensively challenged forwards we can sign because if there’s anything we need, it’s LESS scoring!”, etc. Don’t get me started about the 2011 draft.
Your “good young talent” isn’t really all that good. You’ll find that out soon enough. The one guy who actually really is good and you all seem to be completely and utterly oblivious to is Toby Enstrom. Look, Criag Ramsay was insane. Seriously. Completely nuts. If you go back to seasons prior to 2010-11 and look at Enstrom’s Corsi, etc. you will see a very different picture over the guy who was tasked last season with covering up for Byfuglien. Bogo is terrible. Mark my words. If you re-sign him, by December or January you will all wish you hadn’t. I guarantee you that you’ll see what we did in Atlanta. For every guy who had a career year, some other guy had a career worst year to offset it. Little is Scott Gomez lite. Kane is a wild card who may indeed get better but he’s got a big chance of being another 20-25 goal a season guy and no more.
I’ll check back in a year and we’ll see who came closer to what happened – me or you.
Yes, thank you, I know I can always count on you to be a bitter former Thrashers fan.
I don’t think any of us underestimate Enstrom, even less are “oblivious” to him.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Aug 24, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
don't think the Thrashers will pull a Nordiques
and win it after leaving
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Aug 24, 2011 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah. The Jets aren’t a great goalie away from winning the Cup. It’d definitely get them to the playoffs, but they’d be like the Rangers or the Sabres; no real chance to get past the first round.
by TheOtherAndrew on Aug 25, 2011 2:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I appreciate the words of someone who's sole purpose here has been to tell us how bad our team is.
Deleting comments from a blog is not 'censorship.' Common practice. -BBS
by WinnipegTitanFan13 on Aug 24, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
zontar is spot on
i couldnt agree more that the jets are going to be among the NHLs worst teams. this will be the third straight year of new coaches/new system and we lack any sort of consistency at forward (other than the ladd/wheeler/little line).
Zontar is absolutely correct in saying that toby enstrom is our best player. hes the best defensemen we have, best puck mover, best passer, and best stick handler. hell, id like to give him a shot in the shootout he seems like he could pleasantly surprise us.
as far as talent level, our defense is OK. nothing special, but in the proper system we could manage to be a middle of the road team defensively. we really get crushed on overall team D. forwards are often slow on the backcheck and we have TONS of holes in the defensive zone. i hope claude noel brings in a defensive system because we sure as hell could use one.
by #8dangilitis on Aug 27, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Ben, I’ve had the same optimism infection this summer. It’s really tough to clear up.
That said, the reason I keep realizing the Jets will be poor is the lack of quality players at forward. The Ladd-Little- Wheeler line looks great, but after that, they have very little. When you’re top scorers are also your matchup line, it’s hard to win hockey games unless that top line is among the NHL’s elite.
Unless the Thrashers get 70 goals and good possession play from Kane-Fehr and whoever centers them, it could be a long year.
I generally like the defense and figure between Mason and Pavelec the Jets should get league average goaltending or better, but the scoring needs an upgrade.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Yeah, that’s the same hitch I keep getting, too. In the annual, I figured that Kane would improve to the low 60s in points, but everybody else would struggle to get 50. The only thing that keeps me hopeful is that defensive teams seem to sneak into the playoffs better than teams who do poorly in their own zone. Hell, it’s been the Predators mantra.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Aug 24, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
The Predators can do it but no one on the Jets lineup is close to being Weber or Suter to carry them there.
by Stephan Cooper on Aug 24, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
True, they wouldn’t be strong defensively in the same manner that the Preds are.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Aug 24, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Also good team depth does a lot to help “defensive” teams sneak past teams with better offensive talent, having fewer scrubs to victimize does a lot for teams like Nashville. Boston was an upscale verison of this effect last season (although goaltending and ES shooting percentage was a bigger reason for their success).
I don’t thing the Jets currently have the depth at forward to pull off a low scoring event strategy. They’re not Oilers level bad there but the top eight or nine or so teams in the East one paper tend to be much stronger there. Even top heavy teams like Washington and Tampa Bay can put together a pretty decent third line.
New Jersey looks to be the big exception, they look shockingly vulnerable past their big 4 up front unless the rookie trio of Palmeri, Josefson and Tendenby are much better and more NHL ready players than their careers thus far indicate. At least when Montreal and Buffalo look to plug in rookies and sophomores into their top nine they waited until they were at least star players at the AHL level.
by Stephan Cooper on Aug 24, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
At least when Montreal and Buffalo look to plug in rookies and sophomores into their top nine they waited until they were at least star players at the AHL level.
the difference is that NJ’s minor league team is typically horrible, and Montreal and Buffalo’s teams are consistently good. Don’t trust the boxcar numbers; Josefson and Tedenby are NHL players.
http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
If a guy is NHL ready he’ll generally be a leader in the AHL. None of those guys were that even on a bad Albany team. Considering how little they actually accomplished last year with some very sheltered minutes in the NHL, I kind of doubt that they’ve really shown that they belong in the NHL.
by Stephan Cooper on Aug 25, 2011 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
If a guy is NHL ready he’ll generally be a leader in the AHL
true.
None of those guys were that even on a bad Albany team.
tedenby played 10 games in albany. josefson played 18 games. both players had never played in north america before. josefson’s 12 points in 18 games was one of the best rates on the team.
Considering how little they actually accomplished last year with some very sheltered minutes in the NHL, I kind of doubt that they’ve really shown that they belong in the NHL.
both players got better as the season progressed, which is what tends to happen with young players.
http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
Which is all true and they are solid prospects the way they’ve been inserted into the lineup was essentially to be warm bodies on a team that has depleted their depth. That generally isn’t a wise strategy for your team’s promising up and coming players.
Most likely this result in players that either get killed against more experienced players or need such heavy sheltering that the rest of your lineup is put at a sharp disadvantage. Which feeds into my overall point that these are players whose track records thus far don’t inspire confidence that they can be counted on to even play third line minutes over the course of a full season.
The fact that they look to be placed there seems to be more reflective of New Jersey’s dearth of established players upfront than the youngesters merits as players at this point in time. Essentially they’ve become the least bad option and look like they are banking on the top 4 forwards to do enough heavy lifting to make the strategy possible
by Stephan Cooper on Aug 25, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Which is all true and they are solid prospects the way they’ve been inserted into the lineup was essentially to be warm bodies on a team that has depleted their depth. That generally isn’t a wise strategy for your team’s promising up and coming players.
says you. i’ll take lou lamoriello’s 20+ years of developing prospects over your generalized advice. calling them ‘warm bodies’ is mis-stating how they were used. they were given 3rd line ice time and 2nd power play unit time.
Most likely this result in players that either get killed against more experienced players or need such heavy sheltering that the rest of your lineup is put at a sharp disadvantage. Which feeds into my overall point that these are players whose track records thus far don’t inspire confidence that they can be counted on to even play third line minutes over the course of a full season.
that’s how it is with young players. you are making a chicken or egg argument. no young player is proven until he’s proven. do i think a 21 year old jacob josefson will be better than a 20 year old one? yes. and btw josefson’s corsi is barely positive, but he was 54.4% in shots.
you’re also not realizing that NJ had all these players who ‘required’ soft minutes and the rest of the team still had above 50% zone starts. and that was largely without zach parise, their best play driver.
The fact that they look to be placed there seems to be more reflective of New Jersey’s dearth of established players upfront than the youngesters merits as players at this point in time. Essentially they’ve become the least bad option and look like they are banking on the top 4 forwards to do enough heavy lifting to make the strategy possible
free agency is a thing that exists. if the devils had wanted to pursue free agents, they could have (and they still could). you are not counting on player improvement or realizing just how good parise and elias are – there is plenty of soft ice time to go around.
http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
I don’t doubt at all Elias and Parise’s talents. They’re the primary reason I’d consider New Jersey part of the nine teams in the East that are in a position to strongly compete for a playoff spot because New Jersey’s top 4 forwards are as good as anyone in a Conference that has Pittsburg, Washington and Tampa Bay.
The issue is that they’re approaching an Anahiem situation where they’re completely dependent on the best guys carrying the load so if one or two have a bad season or get injured they could fall fast because they don’t have the depth to insulate them.
Which is my overall point. For one of the better teams in East New Jersey’s depth situation isn’t very good as it is reliant on unproven players who didn’t have exceptionally strong seasons for their age last year to fill NHL roles where other teams could probably afford to keep 1 or 2 of them in the AHL. Montreal for example can afford to start a guy like Desharnais whose a lot more proven at both the AHL and NHL level than any of the three and likely a better player at this point in time on the 4th. New Jersey doesn’t have that kind of depth so their guys fill the complimentary top-six and third line roles right out of the gate.
Lamoriello a very good GM, but to me this looks more like making the best of a not very great situation rather than pursuing a more optimal situation. Which everyone has to do at some point. The point isn’t that the management is incompetent or New Jersey is a bad team, the point is that due to previous decisions (Kovalchuk’s acquisition looms large here) they’ve become a very top heavy team at forward. Also its not like he hasn’t run some big risks with the lower end of the lineup recently. He is the guy that was forced to ice an incomplete lineup by leaving to little cap cushion to replace injuries.
As far as free agency goes, those three had the advantage of being cheaper than equivalent or better players this summers market for a team that looks like its finally reaching its spending limit. Its not that counting on the new guys is
As a rule I never count on player development. Players don’t rise in a continuously upward slope and basing a lineup strategy on guys getting better is at least something of a risk. Which is why if I was New Jersey I’d be far more comfortable if Josefson and Tedenby were positioned to start the season as star AHLers and the go to injury fill-ins to start the season rather than to count on them on my top nine right out of the gate.
Its not so much that they couldn’t do that job but that placing them that high on the depth chart means that the team doesn’t have much insulation from the risks of unproven players by counting on so many of them simultaneously. Fundamentally you’re counting on players to do something they’ve never done for an extended period of time before, which is a risky proposition. Not to mention because basically every team gets injuries, you’re top nine players need to be able to at least fill in as top six guys at some point in the season.
by Stephan Cooper on Aug 25, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
The issue is that they’re approaching an Anahiem situation where they’re completely dependent on the best guys carrying the load so if one or two have a bad season or get injured they could fall fast because they don’t have the depth to insulate them.
the problem is that NJ’s bottom lines did well. anaheim gave out softer ice time and their team was overall far worse. i mean honestly, you’re comparing a team that was 45% with score tied to a team that was 53% with score tied.
The point isn’t that the management is incompetent or New Jersey is a bad team, the point is that due to previous decisions (Kovalchuk’s acquisition looms large here) they’ve become a very top heavy team at forward.
the devils have $5m in cap room. and that’s with salvador assumed to be in the lineup; he may not be healthy enough to play.
As a rule I never count on player development. Players don’t rise in a continuously upward slope and basing a lineup strategy on guys getting better is at least something of a risk. Which is why if I was New Jersey I’d be far more comfortable if Josefson and Tedenby were positioned to start the season as star AHLers and the go to injury fill-ins to start the season rather than to count on them on my top nine right out of the gate.
the devils are in trouble if elias or parise gets injured. but that’s true of just about any team. it’s a salary cap league with the UFA age of 27, you don’t just get to hold on to talent on the bottom lines anymore.
my point is two-fold:
1: while i am counting on player development, i don’t have to, because tedenby and josefson were breakeven players with soft ice time (and were much better than that with score tied late in the season, though that’s a small sample)
2: players typically improve at their ages. tedenby in particular is a phenomenal talent and has shown that he could be an elite penalty drawer if nothing else.
Its not so much that they couldn’t do that job but that placing them that high on the depth chart means that the team doesn’t have much insulation from the risks of unproven players by counting on so many of them simultaneously. Fundamentally you’re counting on players to do something they’ve never done for an extended period of time before, which is a risky proposition.
which again is why you’re making a chicken or egg argument. it works both ways. the players could regress, which is very highly unlikely. they could progress, which is likely. they could cumulatively stagnate, which is certainly possible.
don’t sleep on zharkov, whose scoring touch is bad but whose career corsi is quite excellent.
http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
What all of this means is just drop the damn puck already.
I think Winnipeg will struggle, they just don’t have many finishers. We’ll see if Evander Kane becomes one. I also have no idea what to make of Burmistrov.
Thanks for the link and shout out.
http://drivingplay.blogspot.com - The blog with three first lines
What all of this means is just drop the damn puck already.
http://www.drivingplay.blogspot.com - The Blog with Three First Lines
by Chase W on Aug 24, 2011 4:02 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Hypnotizing
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Aug 24, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions
There is potential to squeak into a playoff spot...
I wouldn’t bet on it though. Too many ifs…
If Kane breaks out.
If Pavelec becomes more consistent.
If Mason can win a couple games.
If Bogo improves.
If Buff / Engstrom put up another 50+ points while becoming more stout on the back end
If Burm is ready to become a capable second line center.
If Wheeler maintains last years pace.
If Antropov bounces back.
If the team allows less shots.
Then the team might make the playoffs, but that is a lot of ifs and I am sure there are a few more that I haven’t mentioned.
There are a lot of nice young pieces in play and over the next year or two we should learn how high their ceilings are, but even if they all improve slightly this year, they still might struggle to make the playoffs.
For this the to work…
Kane and Burm need to develop into the kind of players that you can comfortably consider for first line minutes. Otherwise I don’t think the team has sufficient scoring punch or the ability to make things truly difficult for opponents. The bottom two lines look like they are going to be pretty much all defense, so the pressure is on the top two lines to produce.
Completely agreed.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Aug 25, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If the travel schedule doesn't kill them, too.
But I really like some of the young talent on the team.
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