Best Moves so Far
by Hawerchuk on Jul 3, 2011 3:32 PM EDT
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PrintThere were lots of losers on UFA day, and the big winners were the teams that did nothing. Among those teams that did act a lot, let's pull out a few qualified winners:
1. Chicago: Montador and Mayers were nothing special, deal-wise. But they also picked up Daniel Carcillo (one year, $775k), Andrew Brunette (one year, $2M), and Sean O'Donnell (one year, $850k.) The downside risk is inconsequential, and the upside is that they get each player's last good season for less than he's worth. They may have improved two wins for $3.5M, which is hard to do. Plus they dumped Brian Campbell's albatross of a contract. Chicago may be the only team that has figured out how to play the game.
2. Washington: They dumped Varlamov - who put them in a position of weakness by refusing to sign - on Colorado for a first round draft pick that may very well be a lottery pick and a second pick. Then they scored a very good goaltender in Tomas Vokoun on a super low-risk one-year, $1.5M contract. Remember, that's the real market for goaltenders, not the garbage that Philadelphia did with Bryzgalov. Getting Joel Ward without overpaying was also a bit of a coup and Roman Hamrlik wasn't a terrible risk. Too bad they blew the advantage by signing Brooks Laich.
3. Dallas: They should have traded Brad Richards instead of going after the 16th seed in the playoffs. But at least they dodged the bullet by not re-signing him, and they signed six players to short-term deals (Vern Fiddler's three-year contract was the only one longer than two years) without making any obvious blunders. Teams with budget restrictions are actually forced into a segment of the market where they can find a lot of value, and Dallas seems to have figured that out for the moment.
I've written before that no NHL GM seems to have figured out how to win long-term under the cap without getting three consecutive lottery picks (like Los Angeles, Washington, Pittsburgh and Chicago) and without a lot of undervalued talent held over from before the lockout (Detroit, Vancouver). This season, we may finally see who has cracked the system.
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Matthew Lombardi and Cody Franson for Brett Lebda and Robert Slaney
No. Not even in the face of Armageddon. Never compromise.
by article1 on Jul 3, 2011 3:39 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
For any other team, it would be a bad move. Toronto is using their extra revenue to circumvent the cap. It’s a smart move for Burke given his situation. But it may still be a slight overpay for Franson.
On the surface, to me it looks like one of the more lopsided trades this year, given the Leafs’ abundance of cash. I’m curious why you call it an “overpayment”? I assume you equate the idle 7mm salary to Lombardi as a negative asset? I’d love to know what kinda formula you’re using.
But it may still be a slight overpay for Franson.
Obviously, you haven't watched Lebda play.
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by Frag on Jul 3, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
The Varlamov trade and Vokoun signing are full of so much win. If Washington is number two on your list then they must be a close number two.
It’s not as big a win as you think because Vokoun’s true value is not that high – good goalies, despite what Philly did, are not worth much. And Laich???
Vokoun's true value
Is much higher than you seem to think. Did you even see the stats he’s posted on a horrible Panthers team year after year?
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Nope. First, Florida’s scorer overcounts. Second, goalie talent is nowhere near as expensive as you think.
by Hawerchuk on Jul 3, 2011 6:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Interesting you say Florida’s scorer overcounts. What leads you to believe this? (I really put little faith at all in NHL scorekeeping.
Teams magically put up many more shots in Florida, Nashville, and a few other places than in, say, New Jersey.
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by red army line on Jul 3, 2011 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions
I think landing Vokoun for as cheap as they did on a day when most other teams put on their crazy hats when they got out of bed is pretty decent. A goalie that can put up .922 SV% for $1.5M smells like nothing but a great bang for your buck.
by Tickle Me Aulie on Jul 3, 2011 8:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Surely Laich isn’t that overpaid. He’s signed through his late 20s and early 30s and is a legit heavy lifter, right?
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by red army line on Jul 3, 2011 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that Tim Thomas guy is way overpaid.
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by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 3, 2011 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Fortunately for you Thomas can’t hear you with his two Vezinas stuck in his ears.
by Tickle Me Aulie on Jul 4, 2011 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
For teams with all kinds of money, one key is to make sure that the player signed to the big UFA deal doesn’t get a clause preventing sending him to the minors, it seems to me.
Not sure if Richards has that clause or not. If Sather can send him down at any time, would you still consider it an overpay?
by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jul 3, 2011 6:33 PM EDT reply actions
do you mean cap space? they’ll always have enough money.
by TMS on Jul 5, 2011 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
As an Oilers fan, I’m also pleased with the Eric Belanger contract, 1.75 million per year for 3 years. Not a big name deal, and he is 33 and should see some decline in his production, but that’s a low amount for a decent player.
by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jul 3, 2011 6:34 PM EDT reply actions
Too bad they blew the advantage by signing Brooks Laich.
Hate that signing in years and dollars – where do you rate him?
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by Knee high to a duck on Jul 3, 2011 8:21 PM EDT reply actions
I wonder how Chicago would be ranked...
… if Florida hadn’t been dumb enough to hire the GM who drove the Blackhawks into cap hell in the first place.
I'd (biased as I am) also suggest the Isles as winners.
Reasoner is a great deal for cheap, and they avoided the temptation to overpay, and hell, even didn’t lose much out of the Ehrhoff deal (Traded their 4th for Buffalo’s 4th)
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by garik16 on Jul 3, 2011 11:02 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I’ve written before that no NHL GM seems to have figured out how to win long-term under the cap without getting three consecutive lottery picks (like Los Angeles, Washington, Pittsburgh and Chicago) and without a lot of undervalued talent held over from before the lockout (Detroit, Vancouver). This season, we may finally see who has cracked the system.
At what point do we give credit to the DET front office for what they’ve done since the lockout? Lidstrom, Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen, Filppula, Howard and Kronwall aren’t signed to deals negotiated under the prior CBA. Their goaltending was never undervalued – they just understood the value of goalies (and more specifically, the price differences you pay for small perfomance differences) before most everyone else. They developed a lot of their own players, even two and three years ago when they were in the finals, and are continuing to do so. I’d say the Red Wings cracked the system long before anyone else did, and its all the more impressive considering the way they were targetted as a team that ought to take a tumble after the lockout.
Vancouver is the only team that comes close, and they’ve relied an awful lot on using LTIR, and may have made a major mistake in the contract to Luongo, especially considering having Schneider in the organization.
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With three studs like Lidstrom, Zetterberg, and Datsyuk, well, that’s better than most combinations of 3 #1 picks. While I don’t necessarily disagree with you (though that Ericsson deal looks terrible to me), in terms of looking at a model to follow, banking on multiple lottery picks or on having, arguably, the three best skaters in the game on your team as a sustainable and reasonably achievable model for success is setting too high a bar.
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by red army line on Jul 3, 2011 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, the Wings drafted those guys. Lidstrom, iirc, is a pretty high pick, but I know Datsyuk and Zetterberg were very low picks, something like 170 and 190, respectively. Part of that is getting lucky, but part of that is scouting, and a large part of it (and we can’t really quantify this, but anecdotally, I think its true) is the Wings having an above average development system. Part of this is due to the high level of play on the NHL club, where its just plain hard for a player of any level to make the team, forcing prospects to stay in the minors or in Europe and get better until they’re able to not just make a shitty roster like the Oilers or something, but to actually make the roster of the Detroit Red Wings. I think that a part of this too though has to be a credit to the staff within the Detroit developmental pipeline – they know they’re getting lots of time with guys, and they’re able to use it, because there is a stable, all encompassing vision for the franchise and its supporting parts. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg are NHL’ers for sure, but are they as good if they were drafted by the Oilers and pushed into the league in their first years? I highly doubt it. Part of that is on the individuals, but part of that is a credit to the organization too. They didn’t just strike gold in the late rounds and throw it out on the ice, they helped develop these players into what they currently are.
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Maybe the development is above-average (though I’ve recently become skeptical). All I’m saying is that “hey, let’s follow the Red Wings model. Step 1. Draft one of the greatest defensemen of all time. Step 2. Draft the two best defensive forwards in the game” is kind of hard to follow.
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by red army line on Jul 4, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
There’s a huge discount when you re-sign your own players, plus the very best superstars can’t possibly be paid their true value. Detroit got that advantage before the lockout and they’re nowhere near as good as they were at their 2007-09 peak. When I see a team become the best in the league through intelligent trading, non-lottery picks and smart free agent signings, I’ll admit the GM knows what he’s doing.
You’re right that they’re not as good as they were a couple years ago, and that its easier to resign your own guys than to get someone else’s. That said, I think that there is an intangible value to creating a situation where players feel good about taking less money – a lot of other franchises would like to be in a situation where they could sign guys like that. Not everyone is able to sign their own guys to cheaper deals, or even bring in free agents for less than they would’ve gotten elsewhere. That they can have such an influence on some guys would seem to indicate that they’re doing something not many other franchises can do.
Of course, considering their peak post-lockout (a conference final loss, a Stanley Cup, and a Cup final loss), relatively speaking, anything short of more Cups is going to be a decline. That they’re still competing at a very high level and maintaining a place near the top of the NHL standings is pretty damn good, I think. They haven’t had to build a team from scratch, so I guess maybe you can discredit Ken Holland’s abilities as having not been fully tested in the post-lockout NHL, but that doesn’t seem right either, because the DET front office deserves credit for keeping that from happening so far. While the post-lockout Red Wings certainly inherited a lot from the pre-lockout Red Wings, I think its important to note that they set themselves up to be in the position they ended up in, and a large part of that was through “intelligent trading, non-lottery picks and smart free agent signings”.
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When I see a team become the best in the league through intelligent trading, non-lottery picks and smart free agent signings, I’ll admit the GM knows what he’s doing.
That is an amazingly high hurdle. I tend to think that many front offices “knows what he is doing”… though you might not agree with everything they do.
The bruins have been consistant winners since Chiarelli took over the big chair. Though they missed out on the playoffs his first year.
I think the Bruins have been generally doing things pretty well, but Chiarelli got inserted in to a good situation and has taken advantage of it. Chiarelli hasn’t drafted anyone that’s really contributed to the Bruins at all (a sum total of 103 games across all his picks with 74 of those by Seguin).
Rask, Chara, Savard, Kessel, Lucic, and Marchand were each acquired by Gorton in the few months before Chiarelli took over.
Add in the existing base of Krejci, Bergeron, and Thomas and I think the best thing that can be said about Chiarelli is that he did not screw up what was already set in motion.
Related to the topic, what exactly does Gorton need to do in order to be considered for a GM job? In his 4 months, he made an excellent trade (Rask for Raycroft), had arguably the best draft (Kessel, Lucic, and Marchand + Bodnarchuk and Alexandrov as still potential NHLers), and signed two of the better free agents at what seemed to be pretty reasonable deals (Chara and Savard). No real misses in any of his actions.
How many GMs, if you took their best four month stretch, have accomplished anything like that?
I think you’re being naive. Teams slot certain amounts for a particular line and position, irrespective of the player who they sign. They assemble comps based on boxcar stats. They tend to acquire players they’ve coached before and fear those they haven’t. Some GMs don’t even use computers, and most of them were former players or the sons of former GMs (compare to MLB, e.g.) That’s a suboptimal group.
Dallas?
I didn’t like Dallas’ signings at all. I’ll grant you that they avoided the high-risk, long-term contracts, but I think they overpaid for Ryder, Fiddler and Pardy.
But yeah – Washington and Chicago killed it.
So … since I value the numbers here so much … what do you think of the Sharks latest move … Heatley for Havlat?
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Havlat had a better ES scoring rate (2.41 to 1.55) and Relative Corsi (11.6 to -4.3) while playing against tougher competition (+0.435 to -0.425). Their zone starts were similar. Heatley had a bit more puck luck with a PDO 17 points higher than Havlat’s.
Hands down advantage to Havlat and his cap hit is $2.5m less than Heatley’s.
So he’s a much better player at this point, at 2/3 the cost. Giddy up.
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I’m not sure Corsi QoC is the best comparison of the two. Both Heatley’s QUALCOMP and Corsi Rel QoC indicate relatively tough opposition and are near the top on his team.
Meanwhile Havlat’s numbers are near the bottom of Minnesota’s forwards in all catagories, which seems to indicate that he was on a soft minutes line in Minnesota
by Stephan Cooper on Jul 4, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you got it right. Havlat got soft ice time from the second he got to Min, while McLellan used Heatley to match up against opposing line 1s. The deal makes the Sharks worse, but not $2.5M worse, so they come out ahead.
It all depends on what they can acquire with that cap space for next season. They had a fair amount coming into today considering the roles they had to fill (bottom six guys), so this gives them a lot of breathing room.
Going to be interesting who they end up acquiring. Bring in Miettinen and make it a Minnesota hat trick!
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I was using Corsi Rel QoC from BTN. Havlat played more difficult ice time last season than Heatley. In 09-10, Heatley played slightly harder comp (Corsi Rel QoC) but it was Heatley’s comp level that dropped last year while Havlat’s stayed pretty similar.
That said, I was just looking at the numbers, not rank in comparison to the team. Heatley played top comp in 09-10 on the Sharks and 2nd line comp last season. He went from 3rd to 6th on the forward comp list.
Havlat had the hardest comp of any Wild forward in 09-10, but dropped to 10th this season.
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I see .425 as Havlat’s Corsi QoC and .218 as his Corsi Rel QoC, though…?
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#3
i’m a fan of Minny’s moves
not just adding Heatley — whose downside risk is less than Havlat’s as his K expires 1 year sooner — but also the acquisition of Setoguchi, Coyle, and a 1st FOR a 2nd and BBurns (who is an UFA in 12 months)
Re: Burns, that’s outstanding asset management
i also like TOR’s signings
they’ve addressed their two greatest needs:
1) a center for Kessel (Connolly), and
2) PP QBs to replace Kaberle (Liles and Franson)
and Burke did it, for free agency, at a reasonable price
now let’s see what he does w/ RFAs Schenn and MacArthur
lastly, i thought PIT did a nice job
they extended Tyler Kennedy 2 more years —>> at a bargain price of 2 per year
Pascal Dupuis’s new deal was even better —>> 2 more years for only 1.5 per
they also signed quality bottom 6-ers to cap friendly deals: Letestu (625k), Adams (675k), and Asham (775k)
that’s 5 quality forwards for LESS than 5.5 total
not flashy, but exceedingly well done by Shero
Also underrated for Pitt is the Sullivan signing. Very low risk, good potential that he outplays this contract, especially on a line with Crosby.
Pittsburgh did great
Often overlooked. Good point!
I actually think the Bruins have done well this offseason, but it started a lot earlier.
Chara ($6.9 MM cap hit on his essentially 6 year contract) and Bergeron (3 years at $5 MM each) were signed to extensions during the season, removing them from this frenzy. It seems like each would be getting a lot more money had then been allowed to become free agents.
As a result, they entered the offseason not needing to re-sign anyone of significance. They still need a D, but seem to be waiting to see if anyone left hanging around will sign for cheaper than current rates. That could end up making more sense than outbidding for anyone that’s been signed so far.
I am quite the fan of the "New Look" Chicago Blackhawks.
I think, at the end of the day, the blueline is more balanced, deeper, and therefore better. Hoping that Keith is closer to Norris form than 2010-2011 form, and this will be one hell of a D-Corps, certainly is bigger and better at penalty killing.
Brunette gives the Hawks something that they desperately needed, A big body that gets to the crease, is hard to move, and has the hands to finish plays at the goal-mouth. I’m definitely thinking fondly about the idea of Brunette planting himself in front of the net while Patrick Kane and Patrick Sharp cycle the puck around him.
Plus, the Hawks still have the cap space to snag one of the pieces that fall loose from the NY Rangers’ new contract commitments (we are praying Ryan Callahan or Brandon Dubinsky).
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by Detroit Must Die on Jul 6, 2011 2:36 PM EDT reply actions
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