On Post-Junior Success; or Couturier vs Scheifele

TORONTO CANADA - JANUARY 19: Sean Couturier #7 of Team Cherry fires a backhand shot on Liam Liston #33 of Team Orr in the 2011 Home Hardware CHL/NHL Prospects game on January 19 2011 at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto Canada. (Photo by Claus Andersen/Getty Images)

I was a little pressed for time and I'll clean up this chart in the near future, but I have enough here to make my point. I looked at all forwards born 1965-1985 who played in the OHL and split them up by age and the number of points they scored per game. I plotted these two variables against the number of NHL games they then played through age 26. It makes a nice contour plot:

Nhl_games_played3_medium


In case you were wondering, the top left-hand corner is empty because there aren't a whole lot of guys who put up a point-per-game at age 16. But the key takeaway is that as you get closer to that top left-hand corner, you're more likely to become an NHL regular. Mark Scheifele projects to play 100 games between now and age 26 - that's perhaps a 25% chance of becoming a real NHL player. Couturier, on the other hand, is almost off-the-chart, and might have a 75% chance of doing the same.

There are obviously other factors here - Scheifele was on a much weaker team, and we have no way of knowing a player's intangibles - but all things being equal, Couturier was a much better pick at the #7 spot. Time will tell if he's the right choice, but you'd better have a damned good reason to play against the odds.

I need to make a few fixes to smooth out this chart and I'll get that done in the near future so that you'll have a much better feel for how to gauge reasonable expectations for a junior player.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker