Building on the results of our first round analysis on Monday, let's look at the results of the second round. First the frequency of each series won-loss state for the home team since 1986-87:
| Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | ||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Win | 0 | 92 | 35 | 33 | 20 |
| Win | 1 | 57 | 44 | 31 | 16 |
| Win | 2 | 15 | 34 | 34 | 28 |
| Win | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 22 |
And the expected home team winning percentage:
| Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | ||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Win | 0 | 0.561 | 0.554 | 0.425 | 0.425 |
| Win | 1 | 0.565 | 0.447 | 0.430 | 0.543 |
| Win | 2 | 0.445 | 0.451 | 0.550 | 0.458 |
| Win | 3 | 0.460 | 0.552 | 0.431 | 0.568 |
The actual home-team winning percentage:
| Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | ||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Win | 0 | 0.620 | 0.571 | 0.394 | 0.400 |
| Win | 1 | 0.579 | 0.591 | 0.484 | 0.438 |
| Win | 2 | 0.467 | 0.441 | 0.618 | 0.500 |
| Win | 3 | 0.571 | 0.731 | 0.600 | 0.591 |
And finally, the home team's performance relative to expectations:
| Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | ||
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Win | 0 | 0.059 | 0.017 | -0.031 | -0.025 |
| Win | 1 | 0.014 | 0.144 | 0.054 | -0.105 |
| Win | 2 | 0.022 | -0.010 | 0.068 | 0.042 |
| Win | 3 | 0.111 | 0.179 | 0.169 | 0.023 |
There are statistical significance problems with the 3-0 state, but when the home team is up 3-1 or 3-2, they tend to over-perform expectations. We also see similar performance in the 1-1 state, when the lower-seeded team is playing its first game at home.
