Second-Round Home-Ice Advantage

by Hawerchuk on May 5, 2011 7:00 AM EDT

SAN JOSE, CA - MAY 01: A San Jose Sharks fan celebrates after the Sharks went up 2-0 over the Detroit Red Wings in Game Two of the Western Conference Semifinals during the 2011 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at HP Pavilion on May 1, 2011 in San Jose, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Building on the results of our first round analysis on Monday, let's look at the results of the second round. First the frequency of each series won-loss state for the home team since 1986-87:

		Loss	Loss	Loss	Loss
		0	1	2	3
Win	0	92	35	33	20
Win	1	57	44	31	16
Win	2	15	34	34	28
Win	3	7	26	20	22

And the expected home team winning percentage:

		Loss	Loss	Loss	Loss
		0	1	2	3
Win	0	0.561	0.554	0.425	0.425
Win	1	0.565	0.447	0.430	0.543
Win	2	0.445	0.451	0.550	0.458
Win	3	0.460	0.552	0.431	0.568

The actual home-team winning percentage:

		Loss	Loss	Loss	Loss
		0	1	2	3
Win	0	0.620	0.571	0.394	0.400
Win	1	0.579	0.591	0.484	0.438
Win	2	0.467	0.441	0.618	0.500
Win	3	0.571	0.731	0.600	0.591

And finally, the home team's performance relative to expectations:

		Loss	Loss	Loss	Loss
		0	1	2	3
Win	0	0.059	0.017	-0.031	-0.025
Win	1	0.014	0.144	0.054	-0.105
Win	2	0.022	-0.010	0.068	0.042
Win	3	0.111	0.179	0.169	0.023

There are statistical significance problems with the 3-0 state, but when the home team is up 3-1 or 3-2, they tend to over-perform expectations. We also see similar performance in the 1-1 state, when the lower-seeded team is playing its first game at home.

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