Looking at Defensive Forwards
by Rob Vollman on Apr 21, 2011 2:00 PM EDT
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Today I'm going to share the results of a fairly simple exercise, but one that I've been meaning to complete for quite some time.
First, I compiled a list of the league's 20 best defensive forwards based on relatively subjective measurements, like Selke award nominations, or recurring mentions in various on-line threads about the league's best defensive forwards.
Then, I took a look at their stats at a group level, over the past three seasons, using the stats over on Behind the Net, like Quality of Competition, Zone Starts, shots/goals against, Corsi and penalties drawn/taken. I also looked for correlations between these various attributes. For now I considered only 5-on-5 play.
Finally I searched all the league's other players to find players whose stats most closely matched the aggregate pattern of this group, to see if I could find any unheralded defensive specialists. Here are the results.
First, the LOEDF (The League of Extraordinary Defensive Forwards): Blair Betts, Brenden Morrow, Brian Rolston, Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Zetterberg, Jay McClement, John Madden, Jonathan Toews, Jordan Staal, Manny Malhotra, Mike Fisher, Mike Richards, Milan Lucic, Patrice Bergeron, Patrick Marleau, Pavel Datsyuk, Rob Niedermayer, Ryan Callahan, Ryan Kesler, Samuel Pahlsson, and Travis Zajac.
Average of LOEDF, 2008-11 (with Standard Deviation in brackets)
Relative Corsi Quality of Competition: 0.74 (0.41)
Goals Against per 60 minutes: 2.41 (0.43)
Shots Against per 60 minutes: 26.3 (2.2)
+/- per 60 minutes +0.16 (0.77)
Relative Corsi per 60 minutes: -0.7 (10.4)
Corsi per 60 minutes: 2.3 (10.1)
Offensive Zone Start %: 47.2% (7.7%)
Offensive Zone Finish %: 49.8% (3.1%)
Penalties Taken per 60 minutes 0.7 (0.4)
Penalties Drawn per 60 minutes: 0.9 (0.4)
The only factor that really strayed from league average was the Quality of Competition, everything else was relatively indistinguishable from all the other forwards in the league.
Within the LEODF there were two types of defensive forwards, those that got plenty of offensive zone starts, like Jonathan Toews, Travis Zajac, Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Lucic and Henrik Zetterberg, and those that got very few, like Rob Niedermayer, Blair Betts, Samuel Pahlsson, John Madden and Jay McClement. The former had far better Corsi scores, but the latter faces tougher competition.
I studied the correlation between Quality of Competition, Zone Starts, and all the other stats, and there was virtually none in most cases. Here are the exceptions:
0.64 Offensive Zone Starts to Corsi per 60 minutes
0.56 Offensive Zone Starts to Relative Corsi per 60 minutes
0.42 Offensive Zone Starts to +/- per 60 minutes
0.24 Offensive Zone Starts to penalties drawn per 60 minutes
0.22 Quality of Competition to Goals Against per 60 minutes
0.22 Offensive Zone Starts to Shots Against per 60 minutes (negative)
First of all, it's interesting that the only thing that really seems to correlate with Quality of Competition (the one based on Relative Corsi) is goals against. Not shots against, just goals against.
Secondly, it's obvious that offensive zone starts is the key factor. Starting in the opposing zone results in higher Corsi, a better +/-, fewer shots against and (my favourite) more penalties drawn. It's no wonder the recent work on Balance Zone Starts is so interesting and important.
Last thing I did was look through all the other players to find anyone whose stats match the LOEDF. As expected you get guys like Alexandre Burrows, David Legwand, Fernando Pisani, Jere Lehtinen, Joe Pavelski, Michael Handzus and Zach Parise, but only two players (other than those already in the LEODF) appear in more than 1 of the preceding three seasons: (Dr.) Mark Recchi, and Petr Prucha.
Anyway, those are the results of my quick and dirty exercise. Based on all of this, here's what I'll be studying in the near future:
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Same study, broken up by offensive zone starts
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How Quality of Competition affects goals against but not shots against
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Relationship between offensive zone starts and drawing penalties
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Recchi and Prucha: extraordinary defensive forwards?
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Secondly, it’s obvious that offensive zone starts is the key factor. Starting in the opposing zone results in higher Corsi, a better +/-, fewer shots against and (my favourite) more penalties drawn. It’s no wonder the re
I think something got cut off on this paragraph.
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Lucic surprises me
I know there was no scientific method for picking the initial players on the list, but Lucic’s name surprises me. Julien has never used him to kill penalties, so I never think of him being a defensive forward. Marchand would have probably been my second choice as a Bruins forward, but your data for him is obviously limited.
I agree, but I wanted to avoid inserting my own judgment into the list. Go ahead and search message board forums for best defensive forwards – his name keeps popping up!
Yeah… EA sports forums might not be the best place to look for that…
I was gonna make a joke that the defensive rating for players in NHL games depends a lot on hitting ratings and fighting skills or toughness in general but I realized that people also think that in real hockey (Mike Komisarek must be a good defenseman, he hits hard and a lot and so what if he’s -84 playing against soft competition).
To give that school of thought the benefit of the doubt, a correlation on hitting might be fun!
by Simon Lamarche on Apr 21, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Dr Recchi, that's awesome!
As a Habs fan, I wonder how Tomas Plekanec and Travis Moen do compared to that list. I think most of us would agree that while Plekanec is a good 2-way forward, Moen also has potential in that category.
I also think your decision to completely exclude PK is a strange one, why not include PK minutes or any other PK indicator to run those same correlations. I think a forward can’t be considered defensive if he gets no time at all on the PK…
I’ll get to penalty killing later. But briefly you 4-on-5 is a small sample size, even over a three-year-period, and teammate effects are far greater. Still – very good point, and more on that later.
Yeah, I know about sample sizes so TOI at 4-on-5 might be at least a measurement of what the coach thinks about him. I know there would be exceptions (even if the Sedins were good PKers, they wouldn’t get much time behind Malhotra and Kesler) but it gives a rough estimate.
by Simon Lamarche on Apr 21, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Claude Julien
I think Julien has coached 6 of the guys that appear in this article (Lucic, Bergeron, Madden, Zajac, Parise, and Recchi are the ones I spotted – I think my timing is right for his Jersey stint).
I doubt anything can be made of that, but it does seem to be unique that he’s coached ~20% of the players on that list. Of course, he had one year in Jersey, so how much of an impact could he really have had in developing players? Bergeron was already well established a few years ago, and considering Recchi is probably just as old as him, I doubt he can really teach Recchi that much.
Couple more suggestions: Brooks Laich, Greg Campbell and Martin Hanzal.
Blogging on hockey at The Globe and Mail
Would it possible to see a chart of all of these players by these metrics? Just to see who among them did best as well as against the league average?
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I honestly think ANZE KOPITAR might be the best of the bunch, and he’s been left out. How does he compare?
Excellent choice!
Anze Kopitar was another one that just missed the list. I think everyone here knows that he’s one of the league’s best two-way forwards, but it has yet to bubble into the mainstream – he’s rarely mentioned in Selke voting, or newsboard discussions on defensive forwards.
Kopitar’s defensive numbers were sparkling this year, and promising the year before. It can’t take much longer for everyone to pick up on his Datsyukian talents.
by Rob Vollman on Apr 22, 2011 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Minnesota’s Koivu is a name I like to toss out in the 2 way forward competition. Though I personally don’t think hes the best defensive forward he is certainly one of the best 2 way forwards. Its hard to really define the Selke trophy because voters tend to give it to the best offensive forward who sometimes takes defensive zone starts instead of the actual legitimate best defensive forward. Being a STL fan like my sig states I still have a soft spot for McClement, though he wasnt at the top of his game this year he should certainly have gotten more recognition for his work last year.
He raged at the world, at his family, at his life. But mostly he just raged.
Jay McClement for Selke in 2011. Justice will be served. Penalties will be killed.
Another good one
Mikko Koivu faces top competition and is consistently effective in keeping them quiet.
by Rob Vollman on Apr 22, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
It is strange how easy it is to forget about the guy, when really he’s one of the top players in the game. Way to include Lucic in the analysis, as soon as I saw the title I assumed he would get left out of the discussion but it’s good to see him in there. I’m impressed by the impact he has on the game at such a young age; it seems power forwards tend to take quite a bit longer to mature than smaller skill guys, he’s really coming into his own.
He should have been an oiler, it pains me to think how much having him on the team would change the dynamic upfront.
Did Dubinsky or Anisimov show up at all in your comps? Over the past three years I doubt it but they’ve been used in pretty tandem circumstances all year.
Good question, but those two were pretty sheltered until the last season or two. The Rangers have made a lot of recent changes in assigning defensive responsibilities.
by Rob Vollman on Apr 22, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
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