I wanted to take a quick look at team Fenwick percentages with the score tied, at home (where shot overcounting may come into play) and on the road, where it's much less significant.
At any rate, the bad news is that the Leafs are dead last in the league on the road and 28th overall:
| Team | All | Home | Road | Team | All | Home | Road |
| van | 54.0 | 53.8 | 54.3 | nj | 52.9 | 55.3 | 50.6 |
| chi | 54.5 | 55.1 | 54.1 | bos | 50.6 | 51.0 | 50.3 |
| det | 53.5 | 53.5 | 53.6 | pho | 50.6 | 51.8 | 49.4 |
| mon | 53.9 | 54.1 | 53.6 | ott | 48.4 | 49.2 | 47.5 |
| cgy | 52.2 | 51.1 | 53.1 | fla | 49.4 | 52.0 | 46.8 |
| sj | 52.3 | 51.9 | 52.6 | nyr | 49.6 | 52.6 | 46.5 |
| nsh | 52.8 | 53.1 | 52.5 | nyi | 46.1 | 45.6 | 46.4 |
| cls | 51.0 | 50.3 | 51.9 | edm | 43.1 | 41.2 | 45.2 |
| stl | 51.4 | 51.1 | 51.6 | atl | 48.1 | 50.9 | 45.2 |
| la | 51.8 | 52.1 | 51.6 | ana | 46.6 | 47.8 | 45.2 |
| pit | 54.2 | 56.6 | 51.5 | min | 44.1 | 43.6 | 44.6 |
| buf | 49.5 | 47.9 | 51.1 | col | 46.6 | 50.2 | 44.1 |
| phi | 53.9 | 57.1 | 50.7 | car | 45.2 | 48.5 | 42.8 |
| was | 50.0 | 49.5 | 50.6 | dal | 45.5 | 48.4 | 42.7 |
| tb | 53.0 | 56.1 | 50.6 | tor | 44.8 | 47.8 | 39.8 |
Montreal is shockingly good – #1 in the East. It's pretty unlikely that they'll fall from the #6 seed in the conference.
Usual provisos apply: this doesn't account for goaltending, shooting talent, penalty drawing and taking talent, and PP shooting and PK shot-prevention talent. And splitting the results into home and road increased the uncertainty of the Fenwick talent estimate.
Of course, none of this means that Toronto's results have been bad recently. This chart is pretty illuminating:
Toronto did well through the first 35 games or so – except their goaltending was poor and their own shooting percentage was low. Both of those numbers tend to 8% in the long-run, so the Leafs have been running in good luck recently. What about their fundamentals?
So we have a number of different 5v5 indicators here that all point in slightly different directions:
| Pct | |
| Fenwick Tied | 44.8 |
| Goals | 46.6 |
| Fenwick | 47.8 |
| Chances | 49.1 |
You'll have to pick your poison – chances point to an 8th playoff seed; Tied Fenwick points to a lottery team. The real answer is somewhere in the middle, which means they'll want some very good luck going forward.
