Bad News for Leafs Fans (and Good News for Habs Fans)

MONTREAL CANADA - FEBRUARY 24: Mike Cammalleri #13 of the Montreal Canadiens hauls down Mikhail Grabovski #84 of the Toronto Maple Leafs to the ice during the NHL game at the Bell Centre on February 24 2011 in Montreal Quebec Canada. The Maple Leafs defeated the Canadiens 5-4. (Photo by Richard Wolowicz/Getty Images)

I wanted to take a quick look at team Fenwick percentages with the score tied, at home (where shot overcounting may come into play) and on the road, where it's much less significant.

At any rate, the bad news is that the Leafs are dead last in the league on the road and 28th overall:

Team All Home Road Team All Home Road
van     54.0 53.8 54.3 nj       52.9 55.3 50.6
chi     54.5 55.1 54.1 bos     50.6 51.0 50.3
det     53.5 53.5 53.6 pho     50.6 51.8 49.4
mon     53.9 54.1 53.6 ott     48.4 49.2 47.5
cgy     52.2 51.1 53.1 fla     49.4 52.0 46.8
sj       52.3 51.9 52.6 nyr     49.6 52.6 46.5
nsh     52.8 53.1 52.5 nyi     46.1 45.6 46.4
cls     51.0 50.3 51.9 edm     43.1 41.2 45.2
stl     51.4 51.1 51.6 atl     48.1 50.9 45.2
la       51.8 52.1 51.6 ana     46.6 47.8 45.2
pit     54.2 56.6 51.5 min     44.1 43.6 44.6
buf     49.5 47.9 51.1 col     46.6 50.2 44.1
phi     53.9 57.1 50.7 car     45.2 48.5 42.8
was     50.0 49.5 50.6 dal     45.5 48.4 42.7
tb       53.0 56.1 50.6 tor     44.8 47.8 39.8

 

Montreal is shockingly good - #1 in the East.  It's pretty unlikely that they'll fall from the #6 seed in the conference.

Usual provisos apply: this doesn't account for goaltending, shooting talent, penalty drawing and taking talent, and PP shooting and PK shot-prevention talent.  And splitting the results into home and road increased the uncertainty of the Fenwick talent estimate.

Of course, none of this means that Toronto's results have been bad recently.  This chart is pretty illuminating:

 Leafs_last_10_spct_medium

Toronto did well through the first 35 games or so - except their goaltending was poor and their own shooting percentage was low.  Both of those numbers tend to 8% in the long-run, so the Leafs have been running in good luck recently.  What about their fundamentals?

Leafs_last_10_chances_medium
So we have a number of different 5v5 indicators here that all point in slightly different directions:

Pct
Fenwick Tied 44.8
Goals 46.6
Fenwick 47.8
Chances 49.1

 

You'll have to pick your poison - chances point to an 8th playoff seed; Tied Fenwick points to a lottery team.  The real answer is somewhere in the middle, which means they'll want some very good luck going forward.

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