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Are there certain teams that are more likely to get a scoring chance when they take a shot?
In the recent relaunch of the Shot Quality Contest, I decided to take a stab at one of Gabe's questions:
Are there certain teams that are more likely to get a scoring chance when they take a shot?
I took a look at the shot location data during even strength from the past two years to see if a team was consistently higher than average at getting shots from the dangerous part of the ice, if they were able to sustain that from year to year and what impact, if any, it has on their overall shooting percentage.
Since I have the (x,y) data of shots on goal I defined the scoring chance area (SCA) as a box from the top of the circles in between the face off dots, shown here in yellow, and then tallied up the shots taken from both in and outside this area.
Percentage of EV shots on goal from scoring area with overall EV shooting%
| 2010 | 2011 | |||
| Team | % Shots from SCA | EV Sh% | % Shots from SCA | EV Sh% |
| ANA | 51.6% | 8.8% | 53.1% | 8.9% |
| ATL | 51.6% | 9.2% | 46.7% | 8.5% |
| BOS | 43.8% | 7.5% | 47.7% | 8.9% |
| BUF | 50.0% | 8.7% | 48.8% | 8.5% |
| CAR | 49.6% | 9.0% | 48.6% | 8.5% |
| CBJ | 50.7% | 8.7% | 51.3% | 8.9% |
| CGY | 44.9% | 8.4% | 47.7% | 9.4% |
| CHI | 51.2% | 9.3% | 51.4% | 9.1% |
| COL | 53.2% | 10.3% | 54.1% | 8.7% |
| DAL | 47.0% | 8.6% | 48.8% | 10.1% |
| DET | 50.5% | 7.9% | 47.9% | 9.0% |
| EDM | 47.6% | 8.6% | 53.5% | 8.9% |
| FLA | 52.7% | 8.5% | 52.0% | 8.0% |
| LAK | 50.2% | 9.7% | 46.7% | 9.3% |
| MIN | 48.5% | 9.0% | 47.8% | 8.9% |
| MTL | 47.1% | 8.4% | 48.0% | 7.6% |
| NJD | 49.2% | 8.4% | 44.7% | 7.0% |
| NSH | 46.9% | 8.7% | 46.7% | 8.6% |
| NYI | 53.7% | 9.0% | 52.5% | 8.8% |
| NYR | 61.1% | 8.5% | 66.7% | 8.9% |
| OTT | 48.9% | 8.9% | 45.0% | 6.8% |
| PHI | 49.8% | 8.1% | 48.3% | 9.4% |
| PHX | 51.3% | 9.3% | 49.8% | 9.0% |
| PIT | 50.4% | 9.4% | 47.4% | 8.5% |
| SJS | 51.1% | 9.4% | 51.0% | 7.6% |
| STL | 50.9% | 9.0% | 48.8% | 9.0% |
| TBL | 52.1% | 8.3% | 53.4% | 8.3% |
| TOR | 48.5% | 7.8% | 46.6% | 8.7% |
| VAN | 48.2% | 10.1% | 48.1% | 9.2% |
| WSH | 53.5% | 11.2% | 50.9% | 8.6% |
| NHL | 50.2% | 8.9% | 49.8% | 8.6% |
First, we shouldn't really be surprised that the New York Rangers look to be the best at developing shots from the dangerous area since their shot location data has been suspect for some time, but we can tell it is a false positive as their overall Sh% for both years is right around league average. I would expect a team that was significantly better at getting shots from the scoring chance area to be well above-average in shooting percentage.
The numbers for the Colorado Avalanche are interesting, in that last year we that don't drink the Kool-aid know they were lucky, but with even more shots proportionally coming from the dangerous parts of the ice they regressed back to league average shooting.
Dallas Stars, despite being below average at getting shots towards the net from the scoring chance area seem to be benefiting from a higher than normal EV Sh%. Double whammy for next year?
While there may be some teams that are more likely to get a scoring chance when they take a shot, it doesn't seem to impact their overall shooting percentage to any significant degree.
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