Dion Phaneuf: Wha' Happen?
by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 11, 2011 7:00 AM EST
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PrintIf you don't understand the title, here's the inspiration. In Fred Willard I trust. Also, this was written last week Thursday.
A friend decided to ask the oft-repeated question of "Who is this doddering doofus and what has he done to Dion Phaneuf?", so I figured I'd take a glimpse to see what's up with the guy. After running through all of the wonderful Corsi/QualComp/QualTeam/Zone Starts data, the picture is pretty clear.
Season
Team
ZoneS%
ZoneF%
BZS
QualComp
QualTeam
SF On/60
SA On/60
GVT/G
2007-08
CGY
56.8
52.1
0.462
0.005
0.250
27.9
27.3
0.217
2008-09
CGY
58.2
53.6
-0.140
-0.030
0.085
31.6
28.5
0.108
2009-10
C/T
54.8
52.9
0.129
0.070
-0.102
28.6
28.5
0.104
2010-11
TOR
50.2
51.2
1.035
0.004
-0.006
26.8
28.3
0.070
It's worth pointing out that Phaneuf spent about 2/3 of 2009-10 with the Calgary Flames, so that high ZoneS% might have been strongly influenced by the cushy starts he had been obviously getting in Alberta.
Different usage, not quite as much help from his friends as Joe Cocker gets, and tougher competition have been the major results from his move to Toronto (his QualComp has been the toughest among TOR defensemen since arrival). He also switched from a power-play unit where he was the focal point to a power-play unit that was putty in Tomas Kaberle's hands (easy, ladies and gents, he's taken). Combine that with shooting talent that clearly was not at the level with his rookie season, and you have a guy that looked like a complete defenseman by the boxcars and highlight-reel hits but was really a big-bodied average offensive defenseman. He's a classic case where you shouldn't confuse hitting with using your body for defensive purposes, as well as a classic case for regression to the mean (because, seriously, defensemen just do not shoot at the league average for all players for long...even the best ones). He's just a classic case in general, he should have a class called "Dion Phaneuf 100": no reading, guest speakers Elisha Cuthbert and the Boogeyman, a special slideshow called "How to Lose Your Shot in 80 Games," and the final's a coloring book.
So what is Dion Phaneuf now? He's certainly not the offensive stalwart Toronto hoped he was, but he's also not (yet) the shutdown defenseman that Toronto is trying to make him become. With Kaberle gone, he might gain a more prominent role in the power-play, but I don't think they will stop using him in tough matchups and giving him more defensive zone starts at even-strength. He's a guy who could very well end up somewhere in the middle of all this, scoring a bit more and improving defensively, but it's doubtful he will fulfill Burkie's wildest dreams.
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Wait, are you saying the Canadian Media may have overrated a hard-hitting, hard- (if not accurate) shooting Canadian defenseman? I find that highly implausible.
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by Jibblescribbits on Mar 11, 2011 9:11 AM EST reply actions
Phaneuf is still getting pucks on net, they’re just going in at about a third of the rate they were last season in Calgary. Hard to believe that a guy who shot over 4% for 400 NHL games is suddenly a 2% shooter because of his teammates…
No doubt that he’s been shooting 2% for 80 games in Toronto but this seems like an awfully pessimistic view even of a player that most rational Leafs fans thought was overpaid and overrated the day he arrived.
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Well, like I’m saying, it’s not just because of teammates…it’s a confluence of a changing situation in general, including teammates, competition, and deployment. Everybody goes through it in a trade, I’d posit that Toronto needed him for something different than what Calgary needed. Did he fit the bill? Not yet, but as I said, I think he bounces back a little bit.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 11, 2011 1:06 PM EST up reply actions
His goal totals might increase, but unless he drastically alters his shooting style from what he was doing in Calgary the past two seasons, he’s going to continue being facepalm city. Never have I seen a player more effective at neutering his own team’s power play due to poorly-placed shots.
by SmellOfVictory on Mar 12, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
Great points, especially on Qoc and QoT. If you look at the Relative Corsi-based version, his QoC has gone up from 0.157 and 0.159 in Calgary to 0.817 in the split year and 0.658 now, while his QoT has gone down from 3.073 and 1.056 in Calgary to 0.153 in the split season and 0.421 now.
Consequence:
Shooting% as a Flame: 6.5%
Shooting% as a Leaf: 2.4%
Assists/GP as a Flame: 0.40
Assists/GP as a Leaf: 0.32
Interestingly, his Relative Corsi hasn’t moved in years.
Also, we saw his power-play scoring drop even while still a Flame; it was 4.2 and 4.7 (PPP/60) in 2006-08, and then 2.8 and 2.9 in 2008-10. In fact look at the year it dropped, 2008-09. His PPP/60 dropped from 4.7 to 2.8 and yet the amount of on-ice scoring stayed roughly the same, 7.4 to 7.0.
Of course we could just be dealing with a small sample size; only 78 games as a Leaf.
I’ve never been a fan of the long-term $7.0 million contracts for defensemen, especially when they’re not proven two-way superheroes like Lidstrom, Pronger or Chara. You’re better off with a couple of $3.5 million instead. Then again, those teams don’t often win the Cup.
This is relevant to the discussion we’re having in town about Anton Babchuk currently. Dude is above 60% ZS and is shooting about 10% in Flames colors, so as you can probably guess he looks like a pretty big catch right now. The Flames run hasn’t hurt him either.
He’s great at this current price point and severely limited role. I keep reminding people that the Flames need to resist the temptation to pay him a bunch of money this summer as a result though.
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Zone start is one of my favourite things to look at these days. 60% sounds super-high, but Kent’s right – Babchuk is sitting at 61.2%, even higher than Steve Staios and the man whose face you’d see in the dictionary under sheltered, Adam Pardy.
Zone%: Babchuk 61.2% Pardy 59.7%
Quality of Competition (Corsi-based, Relative): Babchuk -1.354 Pardy -1.540
That’s a VERY sweet gig Babchuk’s got going!
by Rob Vollman on Mar 11, 2011 11:40 AM EST up reply actions
I think I might be able to shoot 8% with that kind of PT.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 11, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
Quick research...
Only three defensemen (min 20 GP) have a sweeter gig than Babchuk. That is, a higher offensive zone start, and a lower Quality of Competition: John Scott, Paul Bissonette, and
Sheldon Brookbank. Three guys whose only job is to skate around for a few minutes looking mean and ugly.
That’s how much confidence the Flames coaching staff have in Babchuk’s abilities. Wow!
The Babchuckian one...
If you want to understand Anton Babchuck’s defensive prowess, go look up Jonathan Toews’ goal at 16:33 of the 2nd period in the March 2nd game between Calgary and Chicago. (Maybe this link)
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Durability
Something not captured in the above stats is Phaneuf’s durability. I’m not certain how much that should be valued in the conversation, but it’s clearly a skill and one that Phaneuf has been traditionally pretty good at, but again that has decreased in Toronto (at least for this year).
In his last couple of years in Calgary, Phaneuf was on the ice for more than 40% of the regular season. That’s substantially higher than the 1/3 or so that he’s been on the ice for this year (I’m using both ice time and games played here). That raises the price per minute played a fair amount – not ideal when the value per minute seems to be declining.
Durability would definitely be tough to capture outside of games played; barring a stated reason why, I could only speculate on the change in PT. Deeper offensive-minded defense corps? Durability? Coach’s decision? Tired from matching up against tough competition?
Your point does bring up the idea to me that a player that plays more in general is more likely to produce higher boxcar stats.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 11, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
The vast majority of the decrease in playing time is injury-related for Phaneuf. His ice time per game of 24:47 is not too far off from the 26:30 or so he was playing at the end of his time in Calgary.
And I didn’t intend to relate the playing time thing to boxcars, more to the stats that you posted above … the stats themselves are deteriorating (last 3 columns specifically, admittedly they’re influenced by the others quite significantly) … so his production per minute is decreasing. At the same time, he’s playing fewer minutes, so you’re spending more for that minute of reduced production.
The big injury he picked up was a fluke skate cut.
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Don’t almost all injuries appear to be fluke events at the surface? Yet some players (or styles of play) still have the skill of avoiding those events.
I hope you’re kidding. Hilarious.
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by nhlcheapshot on Mar 15, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
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