Who's Next?
by Hawerchuk on Feb 9, 2011 1:12 PM EST
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Most of evidence-based hockey analysis out there unfortunately centers on the Edmonton Oilers. (Growing up in Winnipeg, I learned hatred from birth for the city of Edmonton and its fans, so I rarely write about them.) So while the Oil Kings have been the subject of numerous hard-fought battles challenging the conventional wisdom, fragile fans of most of the other 29 teams have not had their feelings hurt by suggestions that their favorite players might not have talent that matches their reputation among sportswriters.
I have no skin in the game other than trying to figure out player valuations, but I seem to have no problem drawing the ire of thin-skinned fans throughout the league. Some examples:
1. Washington fans who thought the Caps had figured out how to increase their shooting percentage last year (nope)
2. Washington fans who objected to my characterization of their below-average 5-on-5 save percentage this year as evidence of their goaltending being below-average
3. Vancouver fans who thought Henrik Sedin had suddenly become a scorer last season (nope)
4. Boston fans who think Tim Thomas could sustain a .945 save percentage
5. Boston fans who think Boston has great team defense despite being nearly last in the league in shots allowed at even-strength
6. Colorado fans who think, well, a lot of crazy things, starting with Brandon Yip having a special scoring talent (Yip has 9 goals this season)
7. Atlanta fans who think Dustin Byfuglien's high goal total makes him their best defenseman and who think that 20-year-old Zach Bogosian facing other teams' top lines reflects poorly on his skills
The list goes on and on, particularly in the magical area of "shot quality." And the response is the same every time - the phrase "watch the game" appears 208 times in the comments on this site.
Anyways, here's what I want to know: who's next?
Which team or player benefits unjustifiably from conventional wisdom and needs closer analysis?
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Dallas and Tampa could both use a thorough correction of their reputations as division leaders.
Dallas: 65 PTS, +2, 3rd place
LA: 60 PTS, +21, 9th place (?!)
(And, for kicks, Chicago, 58 PTS, +18, 11th place)
Tampa: 71 PTS, -1 (!), 2nd place (!!)
Washington: 68 PTS, +14, 5th place
(And for kicks, NYR, 62 PTS, +17, 7th place)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Chris Drury? Most overrated player in recent memory. Oh wait, are you talking about little league baseball players?
Glen Sather is a Hockey Genius.
http://twitter.com/ThGeneralissimo
http://twitter.com/poplosertwit
The Thrashers as a time were an easy target earlier this year, but now I think the chickens are coming home to roost.
Y’know, I remember about 2 months ago saying that, despite having a lot of accurate predictions, you don’t gloat much. Have I created a monster?
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
Co-Manager at Behind the Net
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2011 1:22 PM EST reply actions
I like it
Makes it easier to prove to other people why these stats are important.
I remember Kent Wilson catching a lot of flak too for saying Atlanta was due to fall hard.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
I remember some people on Twitter getting upset when it was pointed out that Pavelec may not be a .945 goalie all year.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Malkin’s unquestioned status as a top 10 player in the NHL? Ville Leino is a pretty good player but that trade isn’t the biggest steal of all time? It seems like most of the easy topics have already been covered.
I’m also curious how sustainable Stamkos’s success is but I don’t know if that’s what you’re looking for.
Well, the list of good players who’ve been traded for nothing because they fell out of favor with their coach is a long one.
Geoff D says I could make Flyers fans flip out by pointing out that they might be the 5th-best team in the East.
Hm? They do very well on JLiken’s adjusted Fenwick and Corsi numbers, right behind the Pens and Vancouver being the only team with clear separation from those two (and obviously being a Western team).
Speaking of Vancouver, they’ve gotta be the Cup favorites with a .563 ES-tied Fenwick ratio, no?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 9, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions
Using that data, they’re also damn near (1.805) the magical 2 std dev in that measure. Next best team is PIT at 1.47ish.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 9, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
I could make Flyers fans flip out by pointing out that they might be the 5th-best team in the East.
Impossible!
Flyers fans flipping out is impossible I mean, it’s entirely believeable they aren’t the best team in the East.
Mourning Gagne forever.
I mean, the Pens have been just a skoosh better (and I mean a skoosh, there’s almost no perceptible difference) in possession stuff and Fleury may be better than Bobrovsky (I have no idea if this is true), but they’re out both Crosby and Malkin for a significant length of time. I have real trouble seeing anyone but the Flyers as the favorites in the East.
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 9, 2011 5:40 PM EST up reply actions
You may be slightly disappointed by the reaction on BSH (there are a handful of people willing to trust you), but they’d definitely flip out still.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999 and Matt Calvert since May 2010
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
SB Nation Philly - Associate Editor
by Geoff Detweiler on Feb 9, 2011 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
I’d trust him, but I’d flip out just to spur on some of my favorite posters there. Though I tend to agree with Knee high to a duck, but I also have a feeling I know where Gabe would go to put the Flyers at 5th.
So at the very least, I’ll encourage the lynch mob just for fun.
Geoff has Boosh, Mike's got Powe, Nodl is all mine!
Is this the right room for an argument?
Anaheim
Their even strength score tied shot differential has been lousy all year. Hiller has been awesome but is he really this good?
Honestly, Hiller isn’t playing that far over his head right now. 93.2% even-strength save percentage this year, 93.0% ESSV last year, 93.4% the year before that…it’s the Ducks shooting among their top players that’s kept them in it the last couple of years. I think if the correction would come from anywhere, it’d be the shooting, but they’ve held around 9.4% this year and last year.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
Co-Manager at Behind the Net
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions
Anaheim shot recorder overcounts shots – perhaps moreso than any other recorder around the league – and that flatters Hiller’s numbers.
Did he count the same two years ago as he did this year? Then he still isn’t due for regression.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
Co-Manager at Behind the Net
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
True, but it`s still relevant to whether or not the Ducks, as a team, have been lucky.
That is, one would still expect their PDO to trend towards 100 over the long run, overcounting or not.
Are the Ducks a team of Lucky Ducks?
Are they luckier ducks without Getzlaf?
heh
Got that ball rolling already. It distracts us from focusing on how AWESOME Henrik is.
/runs
'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.
by Yankee Canuck on Feb 9, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
This slanders Gonchar and Murray:
http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/7/1/1548346/bryan-murray-wants-other-team-to
Of course, everyone said I was wrong and Murray was a genius
And here I thought I sent you just such a suggestion via email this morning!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Preds. I can save you a few $$$ on Nashville Predators tickets, or just catch me on Twitter and Facebook.
Wait, are you saying that Shannon Briggs didn’t have a chance?
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
Co-Manager at Behind the Net
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 9, 2011 2:27 PM EST reply actions
Boston
I thought us Bruins fans were pretty good about it – I may have come the closest to a “shot quality” like response in stating that I didn’t think Thomas would get as many starts if his performance were to be more in-line with last years and tying that to a likely injury, but I don’t think Bruins fans should be lumped in with the likes of the Avs (nor Leafs fans, who aren’t mentioned here, but posted pretty extensively after some of your posts on Kessel).
As far as who is next … do you ever do anything on drafting? My pet peeve has always been the so-called amazing performance of the Red Wings at the draft table, even though (without diving in), it seems that at the top of the draft, they’re no better nor worse than anyone else. They look to me like a team that has gotten lucky in a huge way with a couple of picks more than a great drafting team.
heh, the Bruins flak came on twitter.
I have already categorically stated that Detroit possessed no particular drafting skill because they had two late round picks turn into superstars. The response I got? “There is no disputing Detroit’s drafting skill.”
Yeah, standard. I was watching a Wings game the other night on CI and even heard Mickey Redmond, Detroit homer of homers, admit that the Wings got lucky with those picks.
Yeah. In the 5-7 rounds, the chances of a player being Pavel Datsyuk are so low that even if a team were twice as good as everyone else at finding him, we’d never be able to show it.
Though i strongly suspect it is not drafting skill at work, but developmental skill.
On the Mike Weber bandwagon (no longer with a lack of stupid boarding penalties!)
Admissions of guilt: "It was me guys, I ruined PPP." - nhlcheapshot
There’s been a lot on our site about Detroit not being that great at drafting but pretty good at having Hall of Famers shielding kids as they developed and Detroit fans didn’t like that.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
To me that seems better. Drafting in rounds 5-7 is always going to be mostly luck. Having an organization with a particular skill in developing players by placing them in positions to succeed sounds like a more useful piece going forward. They’ve still got Zetterberg and Datsyuk to shelter their next generation, after all.
I'd love to see some stuff about
Ondrej Pavelec
Milan Lucic
Paying Hjalmarsson
New Jersey’s low shooting percentage for the last 4 years
Mikko Koivu’s worth
Mike Ribeiro
Halak
Oshie
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
New Jersey’s low shooting percentage for the last 4 years
Conversely, Colorado’s rather high shooting percentage for the last 4 years. 3 out of the 4 (including this season), they’ve got the third highest 5-on-5 S%. What’s up with that?
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
Who's Next?
I thought for sure that your “Who’s Next?” was referencing this scene.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I was hoping it would be followed up with a “Won’t Get Fooled Again” reference.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Wait, two posts ago you said you didn’t want anyone to come and say “watch the game” without evidence, but now it seems like it’s exactly those fans that you wish to goad?
I remember a post about Sydney Crosby that would probably be interesting to revisit (maybe you’re waiting to the end of the season). Not so much to puncture the CW, but because you bring up the possibility of a change in his game (or perhaps how he’s used), and I wonder how that can be shown.
http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2010/9/2/1665235/how-many-goals-will-sidney-crosby
How did you get that from his question,
“Which team or player benefits unjustifiably from conventional wisdom and needs closer analysis?”
by Corey Pronman on Feb 9, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions
No, from the answers, like in response to Anaheim or Dallas above, where the idea was that there was no point in writing stuff on them since the fans wouldn’t come and complain about puncturing the CW.
My comment of course was said facetiously, in the tone of the thread. I love Hawerchuk’s stuff, and I wasn’t actually complaining.
As for what I'd like to see
Looks like Chicago still has some pretty damn good underlying numbers at ES-tied. Why are they scrambling for a playoff spot?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Feb 9, 2011 6:15 PM EST reply actions
Ooh, Detroit please?
Stay away from Osgood being historically average for his career – I hit on that once already and drew the ire of Winging it in Motown – so something else, please.
Philly next to fall?
I have Philly as most overrated right now 11%
Close behind is Boston 10%
Undervalued is NJ (of course -15%)
Buf -12%
Chi -9%
S.J. -8% (the boat is sailing on that one) I have them tied for 2nd in my league power ratings
[Cgy has made me lots of $$ over last three weeks as they were -12% back then]
All ratings are done with advanced nhl stats (Corsi etc) (and is similar to BBruke at Advanced NFL)
using multiple regression and
What about the all-star team?
Rather than a specific team / player, what about doing an analysis on what your all-star team would be and who were the least / most deserving players the NHL selected.
Good one
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
DO VANCOUVER!
Please, please, please.
Also, Toronto. You’ll get great responses.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
Why not do something positive?
Like, instead of bringing one team and their likely downward regression, talk about some teams who are a lot better than their place in the standings and who should challenge for the playoffs given even luck.
no one has yet really cared: I wrote about:
1. Columbus was seriously underrated (yawn)
2. Minnesota really did push shooters to the outside in some seasons (got some lukewarm references)
3. New Jersey can’t continue to shoot like this (nobody cared)
4. Leafs were getting unlucky in 2009-10
5. Washington and Pittsburgh were exceedingly unlucky to lose to Montreal
6. San Jose was a really good team in 2009-10, and certainly not chokers (that got turned into anti-Colorado)
7. Tampa is the best team in the East this season
I really cared about # 4.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
3. New Jersey can’t continue to shoot like this (nobody cared)
I cared quite a lot about that. Whether or not Devils fans wanted to listen, well, that hasn’t stopped me from saying anything ever before.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Feb 13, 2011 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Tampa Bay
If there’s any team that you could argue decreases save percentage, Guy Boucher’s Lightning would probably be it.
My Top 5 in the east!
Great Call on all of these.
I will disagree on #7 though
It is quite close but I currently have
the east as follows:
Mtl (4)
Wsh (6)
Buf (7)
Phi (9)
TB (10)
Although TB is the most improved team and their coach ought to be Coach of the Year.
Then again my analysis had MTl higher than most last year too – which is why their upsets were not ‘as big’ .
For the record
I have the west currently as:
Det(1)
Van (2)
S.J. (3)
Chi(5)
Cgy (8)
Dan
Having followed the Habs closely, I would be extremely hesitant to put them ahead of Tampa Bay or Philly, but I do think they are the best team in their division. I think TB is on top, followed by Philly, and if they had Sid and Geno, probably Pittsburgh. Montreal is in that top-5-in-the-East area tho, IMO. Judging by their shot-based microstats, if Montreal beats anyone in the playoffs this year it can’t be called an epic upset like it was last year.
Which makes the prevaling local narrative of “yet another year of clawing and scratching to get into the 8th seed” so annoying. The local inability to recognize how much the team improved compared to last year is infuriating.
(Incidentally, how Montreal managed such a turnaround with a very similar roster might make for a good story.)
I told you before training camp even started: better depth.
But you never listen to me.
sob
(Also, I might be full of it on the better depth thing, I just never revisited the tought).
This is the thread that will never die.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
Co-Manager at Behind the Net
by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 11, 2011 6:28 PM EST reply actions
- MAF is not suddenly God.
- Engelland is not better than either Lovejoy or Goligoski just because he is big and can hit and fight.
- Crosby wasn’t going to score 140 points, although this point is moot now.
Two months ago, I bet one of the WSJ writers that Crosby would finish under 130 points – hardly a risk since no one has had 130 points in 15 years. And he took the over! Then came back the next day and said he would only take the bet if Crosby played 78 games or more. I said no pushes because of injury – when you do projections, you project playing time!
Not a team, but what about taking a look at goalie’s save percentage versus shots against in a game.
One of the annoying NBC commentators made a statement about low-shot games being difficult for keepers. Sounds like one of those completely ridiculous statements that is just used to fill air time, but I’m wondering if anyone has actually looked at it.
This is kind of what you want:
http://www.behindthenethockey.com/2009/12/3/1110764/do-goalies-need-to-face-shots-in
I have another piece, lost to the dustbin somewhere, on team save percentage vs shots faced in a single game. Teams that win face more shots – score effects – and have a higher save percentage – because they won. Obviously. But it’s not that low-shot games are tough for goalies; we just picked out the games where high shot totals were stopped.
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